Jonah Lupton
@JonahLupton
CEO/CIO at @FirstWaveFund, long-biased hedge fund, looking for undervalued growth stocks w/ under-appreciated catalysts, need to see ~3x upside within 3-5 years
加入 April 2008
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As I've been saying for several weeks on $RDDT ... the Q3 alt data looks very strong across the board... I'm expecting a big beat and big raise... also possible we get new data licensing deals in the next couple months from Anthropic, OpenAI and Gemini.
Lots of potential catalysts on the horizon with revenues growing 60-65% YoY and eps growing 65-70% YoY while the stock trades at 18x NTM EPS with 10% of their market cap in cash.
$RDDT has been acting well the past few days... I suspect others are seeing the Q3 data and getting more bullish into earnings.
$RDDT is easily one of the most undervalued non-AI growth stocks in the market.
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I got a peek last night at some additional $RDDT alt data for Q3 and ad spending budgets for Q4 which have been pretty accurate in recent quarters.
Q3 revenue growth looks like 62-63% YoY vs consensus at 49.5% YoY (which is up from 47.5% a month ago)
Q4 revenue growth (based off planned ad spending budgets) is pointing to 57-58% vs consensus at 43.5%
If we use the midpoints... it means $RDDT would beat Q3 estimates by $78M and Q4 estimates by $100M putting full year revenues at $3.56B which is +61.7% YoY on full year CY2026 revs vs CY2025 revs
$3.56B revs for CY2026 probably puts full year EPS north of $8.25 which is above 80% YoY -- could be higher depending on margins and stock buybacks during Q3 and/or Q4
This means $RDDT is trading today at less than 18x CY2026 EPS not including 10% of their market cap in cash
This also means $RDDT might be trading below 13x CY2027 EPS with 10% of their market cap in cash... assuming EPS growth next year is ~40%
NFA.
DYOR.
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