Wait, what?
“Compute demand is doubling roughly every week” (for Instinct)
And rumors that Meta is scrambling to add compute for Muse as growth is off the charts
Once again, I implore you to long your compute longs
A list of surprising and mind-boggling stats from this conversation:
- $1B+ a year in transaction volume (still invite only)
- Growing 10%+ A DAY and has spent zero dollars on marketing
- 40% of users shared a personal credit card with Instinct within 3 weeks
- Compute demand is doubling roughly every week
- At 5 to 8% daily growth over the months it takes to bring new compute online, Instinct would reach about 100 million users
- On Instinct's own A/B tests, it matches Opus 5 performance at a fraction of the cost
- Noah spends about 40% of his time on compute
- Buying compute at the last minute costs 3 to 4x more
- Background work runs on setups that are 3x, 5x and 8x more efficient on the same compute
- 50% of Instinct's transaction volume is travel
- Instinct plans to take a cut of what users buy (take rates, Shopify is~2.5-3%, Amazon ~15%, Apple 30%)
- Noah's personal goal is to keep Instinct free for everyone for life
- Some small businesses run their entire back office on Instinct
- Users who connect at least one piece of sensitive information retain at about 80%
- Some users send more than 90% of their messages to Instinct by voice
- Say an app makes 70% of its money from ads and 30% from actually selling you things. Agents could wipe out the 70%, but Noah thinks the 30% gets much bigger, because people buy more when buying takes zero effort
- Instinct launched to about 200 friends and family
- Invites have sold on eBay for around $300
- More than 50% of Instinct's traffic doesn't run on iMessage
- Instinct has proactively called Noah three times
- The company is less than a year old
- Raised $1B at a $10B valuation, less than a month after raising at $2.5B
- Noah is 23
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