It's officially Fed day. Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July 2023 today. In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994. However, it's a particularly unusual time right now. Fed Chair Warsh was appointed by President Trump just months ago with the expectation that he would CUT rates. Now, markets expect Warsh's first change to the Fed Funds Rate to be a hike. We expect a highly eventful day. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as the Fed decision is announced.