METR's @parvmahajan0 says researchers might not be able to detect an intelligence explosion at Anthropic even if it were happening, because current methods can't reliably identify faster-than-exponential AI progress: "If we advanced capabilities by 1%, does that make it easier to get the next 1%, or does it make it harder? Are we only picking low-hanging fruit?" "We don’t have evidence that we're seeing this kind of hyperbolic growth. But also our methods wouldn't be able to confidently find this." "There's only so many internal models, and we only have about a year of data." "The lines of evidence that we've used, interviews with researchers, self-reported uplift, investigations of different parts of the training pipeline, and Anthropic ECI, we're not confident that any of them would be able to show this kind of hyperbolic growth, even if it did exist." "If 100% of the architectural innovations at Anthropic were happening because of AI, then we could be like, 'Oh yeah, hyperbolic growth is probably taking place.'" "Currently, we don't have enough evidence, and there’s especially not enough public evidence to rule this in or out." @METR_Evals