MTS(@MTSlive):"Organizations are a form of super intelligence, basically." Google DeepMind's @alexolegimas argues we're looking at AI's economic impact the wrong way: the unit that matters isn't the individual agent, but the organization: "Capabilities are increasing a lot. We're seeing these kind of hockey sticks all over the place. But when you look at the economy, we're not seeing crazy growth numbers. We're not seeing crazy productivity numbers. Headcount looks pretty stable." "A lot of the discourse is on the agent. We make the claim that you should really be thinking about organizations. Firms are the ones that are competing in the market, not individual people." "If I'm pretty good at coding, I'm gonna be hired as a coder, not a cook in the kitchen. So what that creates is what we call mosaic intelligence for organizations, where the overall intelligence envelope of the organization is much greater than the average of people on the street." "Organizations are a form of superintelligence, basically. And then you're bringing in AI, and the question is: how does that AI compete both within the organizations and in AI organizations that are basically led by AI agents?" @GoogleDeepMind

2026.11.07 04:28

"Organizations are a form of super intelligence, basically." Google DeepMind's @alexolegimas argues we're looking at AI's economic impact the wrong way: the unit that matters isn't the individual agent, but the organization: "Capabilities are increasing a lot. We're seeing these kind of hockey sticks all over the place. But when you look at the economy, we're not seeing crazy growth numbers. We're not seeing crazy productivity numbers. Headcount looks pretty stable." "A lot of the discourse is on the agent. We make the claim that you should really be thinking about organizations. Firms are the ones that are competing in the market, not individual people." "If I'm pretty good at coding, I'm gonna be hired as a coder, not a cook in the kitchen. So what that creates is what we call mosaic intelligence for organizations, where the overall intelligence envelope of the organization is much greater than the average of people on the street." "Organizations are a form of superintelligence, basically. And then you're bringing in AI, and the question is: how does that AI compete both within the organizations and in AI organizations that are basically led by AI agents?" @GoogleDeepMind

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Alex Imas@alexolegimas

2026.10.29 15:04

I joined @GoogleDeepMind to develop a research program on the economics of AGI. Today, together with Andrew Koh (@andrewjkoh) and Shane Legg (@ShaneLegg), we are incredibly excited to release The Economics of Intelligence, the first in a series of projects from our group on how AGI will change the economy. How do capability improvements transform the economy, and when? In this project, we define thresholds of economic capabilities, e.g., minimal AGI, based on how they transform the economy. We then track how the economy–market structure, employment, and wages–changes during the transition across capability regimes. We have seen exponential increases in what AI agents can do but the broader economy seems almost remarkably unchanged. Part of the reason is that the solo AI agent is the wrong economic object; economic transformation is an equilibrium outcome where organizations compete. Looking at how intelligence functions within organizations, transformation will depend on when two key capability thresholds are crossed: competence (gains on individual skills, e.g., coding, math) and coordination (gains on ability of agents to cooperate and work together). We show that what economic transformation looks like depends on whether AI becomes supercompetent, supercooperative, or both—the regime of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Tracking this transition shows why the real visible transformation may come from improvements in coordination—a capability most benchmarks don’t yet track. Past a certain threshold, AI capabilities can break the Coasian ceiling on firm size and lead to an economy that looks drastically different than the one we see today. Two main takeaways: 1. To understand the path of transformation, we should be tracking agentic coordination more closely. 2. The impact of AI will likely show up in wages before market structure or employment. We are really excited about this paper. Excited to hear people’s thoughts. Link:

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