Some market thoughts:
More pain in the land of the semis.
I don't see this as a fundamental re-positioning though. Rather, it's a much wider reset across the board when you consider that $SPY is quite stable.
As mentioned in my post the other day, I am mainly hedging my highly concentrated semis portfolio with SaaS longs — higher oil prices and higher bond yields are impacing semis and benefiting SaaS.
On top of this, I believe that data coming out from Anthropic/OpenAI is weighing on the market. OpenAI's Q2 revenue increased by (just) 18% to $6.7B along with op. losses expanding by $3B. That said, it seems like Q2 was a one-off with OpenAI's CFO claiming that ARR has increased by 35% QTD to $40B. A good sign that growth is continuing at the AI labs in the backdrop of higher usage stats.
Back to equities — JPM, MS and GS Prime data / trading flows all point towards a rotation back into U.S. equities. Specifically, tech is the most bought sector of any across the U.S. in August so far. Even more specifically, semis and hyperscaler names are leading as the most bought industries. So overall, institutional AI exposure is actually increasing, but is still below the pre-July sell-off.
In simple terms, there's room for institutions to increase concentration. I think that many are waiting for more information on the Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs.
For additional colour, mutual funds are currently heavily underweight these names:
- $LRCX
- $MRVL
- $QCOM
- $KLAC
- $CRWD
In the grand scheme of things, this will all just become market noise that will be forgotten about. However, I believe it's essential to be aware of the current macro environment to understand that semis in particular are still fundamentally strong companies. NFA.
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