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Michael Every
@TheMichaelEvery
London, Bratislava, Moscow, Sydney, Bangkok, Hong Kong, Haifa, Singapore,… Luton. “I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
加入 May 2014
1.1K 正在关注    34.5K 粉丝
It’s early doors by 2026 standards, but the below ⬇️ is the silliest, shallowest take of the day so far from the “because markets” thinkers at Bloomberg, who are paddling out into deep, dark, shark-infested waters on a shiny intellectual inflatable rubber duck. Do borrowing costs matter? Hugely. Are they the metric of hegemony? Hardly. Were Japan or Germany heading that way when they had negative rates? Of course, their neomercantilist and neo-Merkelcantilist models weren’t dominating global supply chains while deliberately running at a loss, with double digit fiscal deficits on top, all propped up by capital controls and a political rather than “because markets” central bank - and that supply chain domination DOES back real power. However, there is a Grand Macro Strategy that can match it; and those who know know that U.S. borrowing costs can actually be a weapon vs the rest of the world. If bad analysis walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…
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IS THE BOND MARKET PRICING IN A NEW GLOBAL HEGEMON? In the newsletter (inspired by our conversation with @CarolinPflueger) I wrote about the huge spread between US and Chinese sovereign borrowing costs, and what it might imply about a shifting balance of geopolitical power.
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