I did an analysis of 935,000 Hyperliquid wallets over a year. Trying to find the best traders, with the goal of copy-trading them.
However, if you look at the top 10% of traders each month, only 19% of them are in the top 10% the next month. And only half of them are even profitable the next month.
The probability of a random user being profitable in a given month is 42.3%. And the probability of previously top trader being profitable in a following month is 45.5%. Historic success has almost no correlation with future success (0.036 R²).
Who is successful at trading is only very slightly above what would be expected from a purely random distribution.
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