Flop Labs(@flop_labs):CoreWeave’s five-year CDS hit a record 1,194 bps on last week (ICE data, via Bloomberg). Run the standard math with 40% recovery and that’s about a 63% chance of default within five years. Nobody’s saying the GPUs stopped working. The market is pricing the odds that a five-year promise to pay for them gets broken. A GPU owner selling inference by the job doesn’t need anyone to believe a five-year promise. Paid when the work clears, 85% of the fee, liquid.

2026.10.19 03:44

CoreWeave’s five-year CDS hit a record 1,194 bps on last week (ICE data, via Bloomberg). Run the standard math with 40% recovery and that’s about a 63% chance of default within five years. Nobody’s saying the GPUs stopped working. The market is pricing the odds that a five-year promise to pay for them gets broken. A GPU owner selling inference by the job doesn’t need anyone to believe a five-year promise. Paid when the work clears, 85% of the fee, liquid.

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