New & existing home sales are positively correlated, but new sales often lead as builders adjust faster to demand/rates/incentives.
Mar 2026: New 682k SAAR (+7.4% MoM); Existing 3.98M SAAR (-3.6% MoM).
Leading: New sales.
Mortgage rates (~6.4%) suppress both; lumber prices raise new build costs; gold is indirect (inflation hedge).
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