Kostas Kryptos(@kostascrypto):Ever wondered if a team could top a World Cup group with just 3 points? Mathematically, it can! If all 6 group matches end in draws, every team finishes on 3 points, and the group winner is decided by tiebreakers. What’s even more surprising is that in the most balanced World Cup groups, the odds of all six matches ending in draws may be as high as 1 in ~650–1100 (~3^6 if with a draw you triple your money)… far more likely than I expected. FYI it never happened yet, the best I can recall is World Cup 1994 Group E between Italy, Ireland, Mexico, Norway. All teams finished on 4 points and 0 goal diff, iirc the only men’s World Cup group ever where everyone ended level on both.

2026.06.27 19:18

Ever wondered if a team could top a World Cup group with just 3 points? Mathematically, it can! If all 6 group matches end in draws, every team finishes on 3 points, and the group winner is decided by tiebreakers. What’s even more surprising is that in the most balanced World Cup groups, the odds of all six matches ending in draws may be as high as 1 in ~650–1100 (~3^6 if with a draw you triple your money)… far more likely than I expected. FYI it never happened yet, the best I can recall is World Cup 1994 Group E between Italy, Ireland, Mexico, Norway. All teams finished on 4 points and 0 goal diff, iirc the only men’s World Cup group ever where everyone ended level on both.

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