股票題材研究 TOP 6 KOLs 推薦！ 🔥 高質量潛力題材分析與對應股票統整看這些帳號就夠了 1. Serenity @aleabitoreddit 2. qinbafrank @qinbafrank 3. Jukan @jukan05 4. Fiona @nft_hu 5. Macro_Lin @LinQingV 6. Star @starzq 👇 往下看 6 大 KOLs 介紹

短期有一个回调的可能性是极大的。 今晚的市场已经开始下跌，停火协议摇摇欲坠，中美会面不知道会谈出个什么，高企的CPI，最近炸裂的半导体，创纪录的多日期权交易量。木柴已经堆的满满，只需要一个火星儿。 有一个回调不是坏事，后续也可以走的更健康。

让AI给光通讯观察列表排了个序： 第一组，质量最好/最适合当主仓观察： $LITE $FN 第二组，平台型强者： $COHR $CIEN $GLW 第三组，高弹性高波动： $AAOI 第四组，上游材料期权但基本面还弱： $AXTI $IQE $LITE （Lumentum） 最新表现： FY26 Q2 营收 $665.5M，同比 +65.5%；GAAP 毛利率 36.1%，GAAP 经营利润率 9.7%，GAAP 净利润 $78.2M，对应净利率约 11.8%。 公司还披露组件收入同比 +68.3%、系统收入同比 +60.1%。3 年收入 CAGR 约 -1.2%，也就是说历史三年并不亮眼，但现在处在明显再加速阶段。 更关键的是，公司说 OCS 订单积压已 超过 $400M，且新增了一个 数亿美元级别、2027年上半年交付的 CPO 订单。 最纯也是最受益于光通讯发展的标的。 $FN （Fabrinet） 最新表现： FY26 Q2 营收约 $1.13B，同比 +36%，是其历史上非常强的一季。毛利率约 12.4%，经营利润率约 10.9%，净利润约 $122M，净利率约 10.8%。FY25 全年营收 $3.42B，FY22 为 $2.26B，3 年收入 CAGR 约 +14.8%。FY25 全年 GAAP 净利润 $332.5M。 $FN 不是那种靠超高毛利吃估值溢价的公司，它更像制造执行力龙头。毛利率长期不高，但营收利润和 ROIC 很稳，这说明它的核心竞争力是良率、交付、客户信任、复杂制造能力。 $COHR (Coherent） 最新表现： FY26 Q2 营收 $1.69B，同比 +17%；若剔除出售航太防务业务影响，管理层给出的同比增速是 +22% 。 GAAP 毛利率 36.9%，非 GAAP 毛利率 39.0%。FY25 全年营收 $5.81B，FY22 为 $5.16B，按此算 3 年收入 CAGR 约 +4.0%；FY25 GAAP 净亏损约 $156M，净利率约 -2.7%。 $COHR 的强项是 平台最全，覆盖材料、激光、通信器件/模块，AI 数据中心带来的是它通信部分的高增，但工业/激光等旧业务会稀释整体利润率，，而不是最纯的 AI 光模块标的。优势是产品面宽、议价能力和技术深度强；弱点是业务结构复杂，纯度不如 LITE/AAOI。 $CIEN 最新表现： FY26 Q1 营收 $1.43B，同比 +33%；净利润 $150.3M，净利率约 10.5%；整体毛利率 43.8%，调整后毛利率 44.7%。FY25 全年营收 $4.77B，FY22 为 $3.63B，3 年收入 CAGR 约 +9.5%。公司最新又把 FY26 收入指引提高到 $5.9B–$6.3B，并把 2026 年毛利率预期提高到 43.5%–44.5%。 $AAOI 最新表现： FY2025 全年营收 $455.7M，同比从 $249.4M 大幅增长；GAAP 毛利率 30.0%；GAAP 净亏损 $38.2M，净利率约 -8.4%。最新 Q4 营收 $134.3M，GAAP 毛利率 31.2%，GAAP 净亏损 $2.0M，已经非常接近盈亏平衡。FY22 全年营收 $222.8M，按 FY22–FY25 算 3 年收入 CAGR 约 +26.9%。 AAOI 是这组里 弹性最大、波动也最大 的公司之一。它最大的优点，是如果 800G/1.6T 放量顺利，收入弹性会非常夸张；最大的缺点，是它直到现在还没有完全证明自己能持续、稳定地把高增长转成高利润。 $GLW (Corning) 最新表现： FY2025 全年 GAAP 销售 $15.629B，同比 +19%；GAAP 毛利率 36.0%，GAAP 经营利润率 14.6%，GAAP 净利润 $1.596B，净利率约 10.2%。FY22 销售为 $14.2B，3 年收入 CAGR 约 +3.3%。它的 Q4 2025 光通信业务销售 $1.7B，同比 +24%；管理层同时宣布与 Meta 达成一份 最高可达 $6B 的多年协议，提供光纤、线缆和连接产品。 Corning 更像 AI 基础设施“卖水人”，卖的是光纤、连接、材料，不是最性感的器件。光通讯Beta股。

BREAKING: President Trump provides an update on his 48-hour visit to China for the US-China summit with 15+ US public company CEOs. Details include: 1. Tariffs were NOT discussed with China's President Xi, Trump says they were "not brought up" 2. Trump says he made "no commitment either way" on Taiwan during talks with 3. Trump says he could meet with China's President Xi four times in 2026 4. Trump says China has not purchased Nvidia’s H200 chips, despite US approval for sales 5. Trump says he and President Xi discussed the possibility of easing US sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil We expect further details shortly.

$GOOG TPU芯片ASP TPU v8x（Zebrafish）： ASP：4,500美元/顆 毛利率：40% TPU v8e（Humufish）： ASP：10,000美元/顆 v8e更高端（9.5倍光罩尺寸，采用EMIB-T封裝），定价是v8x的2倍多

As two of the largest forces in equity markets -- growing index ownership and increasing amounts of capital controlled by extremely short-term-oriented, leveraged, volatility-intolerant investors -- converge, we have found occasional opportunities to acquire some of the most dominant long-term compounding franchises at attractive valuations. For example, we acquired Alphabet $GOOG when the stock declined substantially on the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, Amazon $AMZN in the weeks following Liberation Day, and $META more recently on the market's response to the company's unexpectedly large cap ex guidance and expenditures. In our 13F which we will file later today, we will disclose a new position in Microsoft, a company we have followed for many years now offered at a highly compelling valuation. While $PSUS will not be filing a 13F tomorrow, it has also recently made $MFST a core holding. Microsoft operates two of the most valuable franchises in enterprise technology, which account for approximately 70% of the company's overall profits: M365 and Azure. M365, the company's productivity suite, is the dominant operating platform for knowledge work, with over 450 million workers using Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, and Teams on a daily basis. Azure is the world's second-largest hyperscaler cloud platform and, like AWS in our Amazon investment, is a direct beneficiary of the multi-decade migration of enterprise IT workloads to the cloud, which is now further accelerated by surging demand for AI inference workloads. Both M365 and Azure are underpinned by Microsoft's unparalleled enterprise distribution and the security, compliance, and identity infrastructure it has built and refined over decades. Beyond these core franchises, Microsoft also owns a portfolio of other leading businesses, including LinkedIn (the world's largest professional network with 1.3 billion members), its gaming platform (Xbox and Activision Blizzard), and search and news advertising (Bing and the Edge browser). We began building our position in MSFT in February following a meaningful share price decline after the company reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results. We were able to establish our position at a valuation of 21 times forward earnings, broadly in line with the market multiple and well below Microsoft's trading average over the last few years. Notably, MSFT's headline multiple does not reflect the value of Microsoft's approximately 27% economic interest in OpenAI, which would represent approximately $200 billion, or 7% of Microsoft's market capitalization, at OpenAI's most recent funding round valuation. We believe Microsoft's recent share price decline has been principally driven by investor concerns around two key issues: i) the competitive positioning of M365 against increasingly capable AI lab offerings (notably Anthropic's Claude Cowork), and ii) the durability of Azure's growth, especially in light of Microsoft's evolving relationship with OpenAI. In our view, investors underestimate the resilience of the M365 franchise given its deeply embedded role across enterprises and highly attractive price-value proposition. Unlike point software solutions, which may be vulnerable to disintermediation by better-performing AI alternatives, M365 is tightly integrated into the daily workflow of nearly every large enterprise and is supported by Microsoft's identity, security, compliance, and data governance infrastructure, which would be nearly impossible to replicate. Attractive bundle economics further reinforce Microsoft's advantage, with monthly average revenue per user on the M365 suite at approximately $20, less than half of what customers would pay to purchase the underlying applications individually from different vendors. Moreover, we are encouraged to see Microsoft prioritizing its R&D efforts and investment in Copilot, its own AI agent embedded across M365, with direct involvement from CEO Satya Nadella. We believe these efforts will translate into improved product velocity and greater customer adoption over time. Alongside Copilot's rollout, the company has also begun shifting its pricing model from pure per-seat licensing to a hybrid model of seats plus metered consumption, which helps expand the company’s revenue opportunity as AI agents drive incremental usage that a seat-only structure would not capture. These initiatives should help sustain M365’s strong underlying growth momentum, which was already evident in the business unit’s 15% revenue growth (in constant currency) last quarter. We believe concerns regarding Azure's growth trajectory are similarly misplaced, particularly in light of the franchise's exceptional recent performance. Azure revenue grew 39% in constant currency last quarter, with company guiding to modest acceleration through the second half of the year. We view Microsoft's recent decision to restructure its OpenAI partnership not as a concession but as part of a deliberate pivot toward a more open, multi-model architecture that better serves enterprise customers, who increasingly seek optionality across model providers. Microsoft recently disclosed that over 10,000 enterprise customers have used more than one model on Azure Foundry, the company’s modular AI model marketplace. This model-agnostic approach also strengthens Copilot, which can auto-route queries across multiple models to deliver the optimal output for a given task. To support Azure's rapid growth amid persistent supply constraints, Microsoft has raised its calendar year 2026 capex budget to approximately $190 billion. Consistent with what we have observed at hyperscaler peers Amazon and Google, we view this spend as growth capex that should drive future revenue generation. This is particularly true for Microsoft, given that roughly two-thirds of its capex budget is allocated to server and networking equipment that correlates directly with near-term revenue. Like our purchases of $GOOG, $AMZN, and $META, we believe that $MSFT offers analogous and compelling long-term value at today's valuation.

买入了 $Hype 我认为转型最成功的币圈项目，上股票和期货的速度很好，热点也抓的很快，选择标的的眼光也很好。尤其是股市/期货不开盘的时候，成为了很多人/资金涌入的平台。 交易的需求是不变的，不管施加交易命令的是人或者是AI agent。

我有个内部对冲仓位： $GOOG 和 $NVDA ，像是跷跷板的两端。昨晚，涨了Google就得跌英伟达。 背后的逻辑可能是：Google在AI训练方面也正成为英伟达的有力挑战者。 那事实是这样么？回答只能给一个冷酷的YES！ ———————————————————— 事实上，英伟达的市场份额一直在缩减。 AI芯片分别有用在训练和推理上。在训练领域，英伟达份额超过 90%；在推理领域，由于定制芯片和CPU的竞争，份额仅有 60–75%。 但是今年以来有两个结构性转变同时出现了： 1️⃣推理需求大增，推理在数据中心收入中首次超过训练； 2️⃣Google的TPU在训练上被Anthropic采用，第一次有人在训练上对英伟达产生了可能的威胁。 ———————————————————— 🧩趋势背后的原因： 其实我们可以用更经济学的观点来拆解份额下降的原因。今天各家一直被诟病的CapEx其实很多还是花在了芯片上。 对于每年花500–1000亿美元购买AI基础设施的超大规模云厂商来说，哪怕把推理工作负载的20–30%迁移到自研芯片，每年就能节省数百亿美元。 这个经济账，正在驱动Google和亚马逊接受更慢的产品迭代周期，换取架构上的独立性。 —————————————————————— 新趋势：ASIC定制芯片需求大增 TrendForce预测，2026年GPU类AI服务器将占出货量的 69.7%，而ASIC类服务器将上升至 27.8%。 事实上，从2025年底起，推理需求就以极快的速度增长。Agent时代的到来更是把“低延迟交互、更高灵活性、适配不同任务”的优先级大大提高。 Counterpoint Research做出预测，到2028年，定制芯片出货量将超过GPU，成为第一大AI服务器算力形态。他并不是唯一一个这么认为的。多家研究机构认为，模型进入生产环境后，推理会成为生命周期成本的大头。 财报季的数据也证明了这一点： Broadcom $AVGO 的AI ASIC业务在单季度（FY2026 Q2）就达到 84亿美元，同比增长106%，且有730亿美元的订单积压可见度延伸至2027年中。 —————————————————————— Google，Game Changer 更可怕的是，一个超强的对手 Google，也带着他的TPU芯片杀入了这场战争。 之前已经提了很多次，“Anthropic开始规模采用TPU”，这才是对 $NVDA 产生最大冲击的事件。 事实上除了GPU，CUDA生态是英伟达最大的护城河。 英伟达向vLLM、Triton、SGLang等框架大量贡献优化代码，新兴的RL训练框架也率先在CUDA生态出现。 但现在Anthropic跑在TPU上意味着：未来他们的优化经验、工程积累、底层调度都将沉淀在JAX/XLA体系里，而不是CUDA里。时间一长，不同AI公司会说不同的"硬件方言"。 TPU也在迅速迭代，并把训练/推理功能做了拆分。如果TPU在推理市场份额达到30–40%，英伟达将面临两难选择：要么大降价，要么看着收入蒸发。 —————————————————————— 市场是残忍的，现实的，市场交易的是预期。 毋庸置疑，英伟达仍然是绝对的王者。但是王者第一次露出了明显的漏洞，资金已经开始为“预期”下注。

BREAKING: China's President Xi has warned President Trump of a "collision or even clashes" if the Taiwan situation is "mishandled," per Bloomberg. China is looking for the US to clarify that Washington does not support Taiwanese independence.