I think the Prime Day pull forward is a fair explanation for some of the 2.2% drop in nonstore sales, but it does not explain the rest of the report. Autos and gasoline cannot explain the 0.4% decline in the control group because both are excluded from it. And most of the categories that did rise were only up modestly. Furniture was +0.3% but still −1.2% YoY, building materials +0.3%, health +0.7%, general merchandise +0.3% and restaurants +0.5%. Those are nominal sales too, not inflation adjusted real spending. The World Cup also matters because it ran through July 19 and likely gave some temporary support to restaurants, clothing and general merchandise through tourism, bars, apparel and event spending. Clothing and general merchandise are actually included in the control group. So if those categories were getting some World Cup help and the control group still fell 0.4%, that suggests the underlying weakness elsewhere was strong enough to outweigh it. Prime Day may explain part of one category, but it does not turn this into a broadly strong consumer report.