Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.

冉莹颖被骂那么厉害感觉有点过，她最大的错误只是把家里的琐事告诉了所有人，但也因为这样有了流量救他们一家。也许当初创业双方都有错，但这么多年一直她一个人管这个家也不容易。 每次这些女性被骂我都反思一下自己，想到前几个月我老公去让一个大师看过，当时大师和我说女人应该是围着男人转，去做辅助效果，不然损他也会让我自己太累。我一开始还是纳闷，这个家我赚的不少付出的也不少，为啥我成辅助了。但是听了进去最近改了许多，判断不再干涉他，更多的是鼓励，在这个过程中发现了许多自己曾经的不足。 可能太多女性都自带母性光环，在自己发光的时候总想也照亮别人，最后可能成为另一半的负担，也容易压死了自己。 自顾自的携手同行也许是夫妻的相处之道

我最近最吃惊的就是“峰哥亡命天涯”，在发致富密码薄膜铌酸锂和法拉第旋片。 🤔产业研究的信息差越来越小。 我们终将回归常态，一年辛辛苦苦去拿那个10-15%的回报，就像没有AI加速资本狂潮之前一样，回归平庸。