Metaplanet issuing their prefs to buy only 200 BTC/day would be absolutely psychotic.
I ran the CEBE math on this scenario (no common stock issuance or crazy mNAV expansion, and only 1,400 Bitcoin per week)
Starting point:
40,177 BTC
0.97x EV mNAV
$297M debt
$149M preferred
2,463 raw sats per diluted share
~2,157 CEBE sats/share after senior claims
Now imagine Metaplanet buys 200 BTC/day for 3 years using preferred equity only.
No common issuance.
That adds 219,200 BTC.
Total stack becomes 259,377 BTC
Yes, a quarter-million Bitcoin treasury built by feeding yield addicts into the preferred equity wood chipper.
At 0.97x CEBE NAV, projected Metaplanet share price:
Year 1:
BTC to $100k: $1.97
BTC to $150k: $2.73
BTC to $200k: $3.49
BTC to $300k: $5.00
BTC to $500k: $8.04
Year 2:
BTC to $100k: $2.62
BTC to $150k: $4.86
BTC to $200k: $7.11
BTC to $300k: $11.60
BTC to $500k: $20.59
Year 3:
BTC at $100k: $3.58, +73%
BTC at $150k: $8.03, +288%
BTC at $200k: $12.49, +503%
BTC at $300k: $21.39, +934%
BTC at $500k: $39.21, +1,794%
The bear case is literally “what if Bitcoin only goes to $100k and Metaplanet only goes up 73%.”
Horrifying stuff.
At $300k BTC, common equity CEBE rises to ~7,351 sats/share even after the preferred claims.
At $500k BTC, it hits ~8,084 sats/share.
Preferred investors get their yield. Metaplanet gets Bitcoin.
Bitcoin goes up.
The dollar senior claim shrinks in BTC terms.
Common equity eats the residual like a starving rat behind a Tokyo 7-Eleven.
Remember, this is with ZERO common shares issued or mNAV expansion.
BULLISH ON THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY:
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