Today is Jerome Powell's last day as Fed Chair. Here's one of his most influential messages: US federal debt is growing substantially faster than the economy. That ratio is going up. And in the long run, that is the definition of unsustainable. "It will not end well if we don't do something fairly soon." He pointed to Japan as a country carrying far higher sovereign debt to GDP than the US. But he made clear that comparison only holds for so long. The fix isn't dramatic. You don't need to pay the debt down. You just need primary balance and the economy growing faster than the debt. The outgoing Fed Chair is telling you the fiscal path is unsustainable, that Washington isn't listening, and that it's not his problem to solve anymore. For investors, a debt path that doesn't bend eventually forces one of three outcomes: 1. Higher taxes 2. Spending cuts 3. Inflation that erodes the real value of the debt. Markets are not currently pricing any of those outcomes seriously. That's the setup walking into the next chapter of this cycle.