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Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro
Helping you get smarter about macro investing. Subscribe for free to learn how global markets move Bitcoin, stocks, gold and more. By @MilkRoad
加入 June 2023
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Secretary Rubio just said something every investor with global exposure needs to hear. China has a plan. They believe they will surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country. And they are executing on that plan. Rubio's framing was unusually direct for a sitting Secretary of State. "I don't blame them. If I were the Chinese government, I would have the same plan." This is not a condemnation. It is a clear-eyed read of how nation-states behave. China is acting rationally in its own interest. The problem isn't the plan. The problem is where that plan intersects with American interests. "Their rise cannot come at our expense. Their rise cannot come at our fall." That is the line. And Rubio was explicit that this tension is not a short-term trade conflict. It is a defining feature of the relationship, one that will be playing out for a long time. For investors, this has real portfolio implications. A prolonged US-China rivalry means continued pressure on supply chains that run through China. It means defense and semiconductor investment remains a national priority. It means reshoring and allied-nation manufacturing continues to attract capital. It means companies with deep China revenue exposure carry a geopolitical risk premium that isn't going away. The market has priced some of this in. It has not priced all of it in.
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