At $122.90, most of the upside is already in the price. $AXTI has nearly tripled since my March 2 deep dive. People called it expensive then too. It kept running. The Trump delegation is in Beijing this week meeting Xi. Tariff relief or any real trade thaw would push the stock higher. The room for a clean upside surprise looks narrow from here. Sell the news is a real risk. A full rollback of export controls is not on the table. Gallium, germanium, and indium phosphide are China's counter-leverage against US equipment restrictions. Beijing won't give those up at a summit. What's plausible is lower tariffs and faster permit processing. Either alone is enough for a constructive short-term view. The fundamentals haven't changed, and that's what matters. InP substrates are the material foundation for the lasers that move data inside AI clusters. No InP, no high-speed optical transceivers. No transceivers, no scale-up across GPUs, racks, or data centers. Silicon photonics does not replace InP. It needs InP lasers bonded onto silicon to work. As silicon photonics scales, InP demand goes up, not down.