Interesting facts I learned today Pluggables actually use much more InP than CPO. The reason the InP trade was always associated with CPO is that the laser quality and stability is so high it’s like a double bottleneck where a small % of them can get qualified for use thus it greatly multiplies the demand for InP more than normal. Thus I see this “shortage” as extremely levered to CPO working despite having less InP content. I’m not bullish on CPO or NPO for scale up at all and even when it comes to switches and I don’t think those will be widespread for another 3 years at best. Even worst CPO is actually WORST than copper for scale up when it comes to power efficiency because of thermal tuning !!! I found this to be really shocking since that was the only real reason to use it for scale up in the first place. VCSELs seem more promising and don’t have any InP content at all. It’s too early to say if they win as there are many drawbacks but much easier to fix than CPO imo. Then we have the added fact that better chip packaging lowers pressure on networking (or at least keeps it the same) and the added fact that for inference architectures you probably can get away with just a simple 25G interconnect since bandwidth isn’t stressed as much as training. With all this being said, why would you be long the InP supply chain directly or indirectly? Seems like a lot of assumptions baked in that are going to need to become reality fast.