Morgan Stanley expects niche-memory pricing power to weaken into 2028. Its revised model puts DDR4 supply 1% above demand that year. The bank has shifted about 5GW of expected US data-center additions from 2028 to 2029, roughly 20% of its previous estimate for US additions in 2028. That pushes some expected enterprise demand further out. Consumer demand is also weakening. Morgan Stanley points to PC procurement brought forward into the first three quarters of 2026, followed by a deeper correction in Q4. Earlier orders may have overstated underlying consumption. Niche-memory suppliers benefited from having fewer fixed-price long-term agreements because they could raise prices faster as shortages worsened. Those arrangements also provide less protection when customers start resisting further increases. The bank still models shortages in 2028 for SLC NAND, MLC NAND and NOR, at 3%, 5% and 1%, respectively. Its concern is that smaller shortages will make additional price increases harder to sustain. This call covers DDR3/4, NOR and SLC/MLC NAND, excluding mainstream DDR5 and TLC/QLC NAND. For Winbond (2344 TT), Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 EPS forecast by 8%, while cutting 2027 and 2028 estimates by 9% and 22%.

There's a lot of news about WT (3036) introducing their first CW DFB laser line card. More significant than people think for medium-long term. For economic impact and what revenue looks like: - $SMTC generated 74% of its revenue through distributors. $AMBA as another example, ~60-70% of their 2026 revenue went through this company. - With WT in specific, if you look at even a large company like $AVGO scaled: -> 13% of Broadcom revenue went through WT in 2020 -> 18% (2021) -> 20% (2022) -> ~21% (2023) -> ~28% (2024) -> now possibly up to ~46% (they stopped naming) Just showing how important the largest distributors in the world become to semi companies. Given how WT chairman attributed rapid growth coming from AI photonics demand (eg. DSPs to optical module makers): It becomes more interesting for a certain company that WT introduced their first CW DFB laser line card during an industry bottleneck.

A bit late to the party, but still want to share some of my thoughts on the rumor that TSMC may enter 3D DRAM at NVIDIA’s request: (1) What does “3D DRAM” mean here? The rumor leaves that unclear. If it means a 3D structure built during front-end fabrication to increase storage capacity per unit of die area, I would see NVIDIA’s motive as backing another DRAM supplier to expand wafer supply and push down today’s high prices. That seems a weaker fit for TSMC’s customer-specific foundry model, so I find this scenario less likely. (2) The rumor said the 3D DRAM project would be led by TSMC’s VP of advanced packaging technology development, which means that 3D DRAM could also mean vertical stacking during packaging, just like HBM. NVIDIA’s HBM base dies are already moving toward custom designs manufactured by TSMC. The three major DRAM makers still produce the DRAM dies and handle stacking and packaging. Asking TSMC to take over those two steps would basically mean asking it to manufacture HBM in direct competition with the DRAM makers. Again, I would see the motive as expanding supply to lower prices. This also seems a weaker fit for TSMC’s model, so to me the claim doesn’t work as well. (3) Another possibility is the kind of 3D DRAM in d-matrix’s “Raptor” inference chip, presented at this year’s Hot Chips. Like HBM, it uses vertical stacking during packaging. But while current HBM pairs a custom base die with DRAM dies that retain a standard design, Raptor’s DRAM dies themselves are highly customized, removing the need for a separate base die as the data interface. Both the DRAM design and stacking architecture are highly customized, making this inherently a made-to-order business. The chip designer leads the DRAM design, just like d-matrix does for Raptor, while TSMC provides fabrication and stacking services. Competition with DRAM makers would be more indirect, and the impact on them would not necessarily be negative. If NVIDIA is asking TSMC to manufacture this kind of custom 3D DRAM, that fits TSMC’s business model much better. Personally, I find this scenario more plausible. (4) Whatever “3D DRAM” means, TSMC’s business model is significantly different from that of DRAM makers. If TSMC do enter the market, I would still expect it to manufacture against customer orders. It would not bear the same inventory sell-through risk as DRAM makers, so I would expect much less dramatic profit swings.

Infineon QSep26 - Revenue up 13% q/q and 19% y/y to ATH €4.706B (in line with the €4.7B guide); QDec guided to €4.6B, down only 2% q/q (above seasonal growth) - FY27 guided to about €20B (+20% y/y)a t GM in the mid-to-high 40s - FY27 DC revenue is guided to €4B, up from >€2.5B for AI alone; AI and non-AI DC combined; previously some CPU numbers excluded - €1.7B AI power revenue in FY26 (guided >€1.6B), up >2x y/y. Total DC was about €2.2B, with €800M of that in QSep

GIS is allocating TWD4-5bn of capex to high-power laser packaging, which analysts estimate could contribute 30-50% of earnings by 2028 as co-packaged optics ramp up. The supplier has secured customer commitments from a leading US optics company for 300mW and 400mW continuous-wave laser packaging, with initial revenue expected to start in the first half of 2027. Although high-power lasers are projected to account for under 2% of total sales in 2027 to 2028 because GIS recognizes only manufacturing value-add without raw material costs, the high-margin profile delivers disproportionate operating leverage once shipments scale. The overall business is modeled to inflect from a projected net loss of TWD1,540mn in 2026 to net profits of TWD910mn in 2027 and TWD2,050mn in 2028. Capital deployment reinforces this strategic shift, with GIS committing TWD8bn in total capex this year, directing one-third of the packaging investment to Taiwan and two-thirds to Vietnam. Analysts note that this planned spending already surpasses the capital expenditure of the current largest laser packaging specialist, positioning the company to capture share as customers mandate outside-of-China manufacturing amid acute capacity shortages. This transformation aligns with broader industry momentum toward co-packaged optics, where peers like Coherent identify a $16.2bn content opportunity on advanced architectures and suppliers like FOCI prepare fiber array units. Key risks to monitor include consumer demand weakness across MacBooks and iPads, margin compression from component costs, and potential development delays in fiber array units. #Semiconductors# #Smartphones# Report date: 2026-11-10

Double-sided cold plates are already shipping at AI cooling supplier Asia Vital Components (3017 TT). The company says they command higher prices and gross margins than single-sided designs. We see power-delivery upgrades translating into higher-value cooling products. Vertical power delivery places power components beneath the processor, shortening the path electricity travels. Those components also generate heat, creating a need to cool the underside of the board as well as the processor above it. AVC says it is working with power-supply manufacturers on these designs. Pricing and margins vary by customer configuration, while some GPU customers have already adopted double-sided cooling. For cooling suppliers, that creates a source of growth beyond server shipment volumes. A change in how the same system receives power can increase the cooling hardware it needs and the value of the supplier’s delivery.

We've noticed a risk of slower price increases in AI server boards as competing suppliers expand in Southeast Asia. Goldman Sachs cut its 2027 revenue forecast for Gold Circuit Electronics by about 6% to around $5.66 billion. Gold Circuit (2368 TT) makes printed circuit boards for servers and networking equipment. Goldman still expects it to retain a leading position in Amazon’s Trainium 3 boards and gain share in Google’s TPU v8 boards. The bank says Greater China competitors are adding Southeast Asian capacity to enter Gold Circuit’s AI ASIC markets. It sees no significant impact so far, but expects increasing competition to make future selling prices less favorable. That changes how we read the AI PCB growth story. Rising demand and more advanced board designs can support sales, while a broader supplier base may limit how quickly existing products can be repriced. Goldman also expects higher R&D spending as Gold Circuit develops more advanced boards. It cut its 2027 EPS forecast from $2.74 to $2.54, while continuing to expect gross-margin improvement from higher-end products. $AMZN $GOOGL

台湾ITRIが中心となり設立したアライアンス「Hi-CHIP」の次世代半導体パッケージ技術開発に、JX金属のスパッタリングターゲットとタツタ電線の導電性ペーストが活用されました。その成果が、台湾で開催された国際会議「IMPACT 2026」で発表されました。