I would have had more sympathy for the EU if it were saying this four years ago — or even one year ago. But at this point, the EU has largely only itself to blame.
Since China’s WTO accession, China’s share in EU imports has risen from under 10% in 2001 to more than 22% by 2025, while the EU’s share in China’s imports has fallen from roughly 12% to 8%. Yet the EU has done remarkably little in response.
And the EU did not need new policy instruments to act. Four years ago, the Ukraine war gave the EU the perfect opportunity to sanction the biggest supporter of Russia, but it chose not to.
One year ago, the Liberation Day tariffs and the ensuing bilateral negotiations gave the EU the perfect opportunity to join the Reciprocal Trade Agreements, which included provisions to align with the US on economic security issues and take action against China without bearing the political blame. Again, the EU chose not to.
Instead, the eurocrats in Brussels keep rolling out one new instrument after another without any real intention of using them. The result is that the EU has become a laughing stock in China — like the kid who keeps showing off shiny new stationery to the class without ever sitting down to do the homework.
China may not actually think in centuries, but when the EU moves at such a glacial pace, relatively speaking, China ends up looking like it does.
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A sinking ship? Why the EU and China could be heading for a trade war
Fiery clashes at a conference in Beijing reflect wider tensions that threaten to descend into economic conflict - my report on rapidly worsening EU-China ties for our weekend paper
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