可信的鹰,起码比装死的鸽要好
美联储全票通过加息 25 个基点,这是 2023 年 7 月以来第一次动手,也是 2025 年连降三次之后的方向反转。会前概率已经九十多,和传声筒的完全一致「年底前再加一次」
昨天我转述过 JP 分析逻辑的核心:加息已被定价时,市场奖励「可信、有分寸的鹰」,惩罚两种极端。一种是极度鸽,明明说过通胀不达标就要动手,结果装死不加,信誉受损,长端因通胀溢价抬头,对美股反而是利空。
另一种是无限鹰,把路径画成还要大幅、持续猛加,长久期成长股估值才真正挨刀。夹在中间的「好鹰」:加一点,并把去年降息承诺往回收,债券市场反而可能认为联储认真了,长期通胀溢价下降,风险资产未必崩。
对照落地结果:点阵图多数仍看年内再加一次,明年大致持平,相对之前市场把整段周期定价加到三四次的定价,远没有那么悲观。Warsh 强调趋势而非单月 CPI,把油价和地缘也算进抗通胀叙事,偏鹰,却没有当场画出「还要加三次」的极端路径。这更接近「有分寸的鹰」,不是「坏鹰」。
股和币没崩,说明这次 25bp 大体在价里;真正的定价落在是年内第二次加息会不会兑现、长端通胀溢价能不能慢慢压下去。AI 资本开支仍是主线,加息是阻力,但还看不到进入漫长暴力加息周期的明确信号。
Kevin Warsh raised rates and gave investors little reason to think it's a one-off. The Fed chairman's language suggests the central bank sees more work ahead, even if its projections show just one more hike.
His comment about having "removed a dose of accommodation" is Fed-speak for stimulus, meaning officials don't think rates are restraining the economy even after raising them.
He also cited geopolitics as a reason to act. His comment about a change in "our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely" outcome suggests the Fed is no longer treating the energy shock as something to wait out.
That led one analyst, BNP's James Egelhof, to suggest that the first hike and the additional 2026 hike penciled into the rate projections is "likely a down payment on what might need to be a much more prolonged policy tightening cycle."
President Trump said Wednesday evening that he was standing by the chairman, who he said has “a very tough board" that is politically opposed to him. “I talked to Kevin. I said, ‘You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter."
Warsh declined to discuss his conversations with the president but said the choice to raise rates had been “one that we have been preparing for and thinking about” since he arrived at the Fed in May. He called it a “sober,” “serious,” and “responsible” decision.
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