两个容易亏钱的交易行为和应对策略： 1.高位卖出后又买回来：高位卖出后发现还在涨又重新买回去、高位卖出后下跌了-20%、-30%，觉得跌的多了，又信心满满地重新买回去，然后来一个大跌，被套； 应对这个问题的策略是：卖出后，把资金提到银行卡。 2.某笔交易买入后打了止损，然后股价涨上去了，觉得自己的止损行为错了。下一笔交易于是不止损，或心存侥幸下不了手止损，然后一路跌，导致深度亏损。 应对这个问题的策略是：买入后第一时间，就挂好stop limit 止损限价单。这样能把问题大大简化，避免到时候看着K线价格剧烈波动、下跌，大脑和手被侥幸心理情绪控制而身体僵硬、下不了手。

关善祥的“原教旨主义价值投资的条条框框和思想钢印”的教训： 1.“之前跟朋友说过一句话，跟严格止损、及时向市场认错的趋势交易相比，某种程度，价值投资的某些手法，才是真正的“赌博”。” 2.“芒格加杠杆价投阿里巴巴，最后临死前发现是在“赌博”。” 2021-2022，疫情期间，芒格都没法来中国、都没见过中国电商当时的生态，竟然敢一路下跌中加杠杆重仓抄底阿里巴巴。难道不是赌博吗？ 2.“很多投资者都没接触、没用过过所投资公司的产品，没见过公司管理层、不认识任何一个公司员工，甚至都没去过美国，甚至美国签证都被拒（比如我），投资美股信息层面天然具备劣势。如果盲目按照机构声称的 “原教旨主义价值投资的条条框框和思想钢印”来操作，那不是笑话吗？" 在这种情况下，如果信誓旦旦地说能看懂美股里的某个行业或某个企业的终局、五年、十年后的未来，难道不是赌博吗？ 3.胡猛：我经常跟很多基金经理开玩笑说：“一个上市公司的CEO都不知道自己的企业明年的利润会怎么样。凭什么你一个外部投资者，信誓旦旦地认为这公司明年会怎么样，十年后会怎么样？” 马化腾、比尔盖茨当初刚上市时如果能看懂自己企业五年后、十年后的未来，就不会一路减仓了。 关善祥自杀前留下的视频看下条里的视频：

2024.12月： “高位减仓之后，发现行情继续高歌猛进，就把减的部分又陆续加了回来，甚至加的更多。”然后吃一个突然大跌。 比撤退难10倍的，是撤退之后发现party还在继续、甚至更加热闹，而能忍住诱惑不返场的。 理性的力量在FOMO情绪面前不堪一击。 减仓卖出后，只要资金还留在交易所里、券商里，有极大概率会忍不住行情在顶部高位阶段巨大涨跌波动，或是大涨追高，或是下跌过早抄底，又重新重仓买回去。 除了把钱提到银行卡，没有更好“把自己绑在桅杆上”的办法。

信中Leopold 用Billions级别的代价，学习和吸取到的教训就是： “保住本金，不要归零。”之：不要杠杆合约爆仓归零。 “we will manage our public book on a fully-paid-for basis，with no margin/liquidation risk”。 “我们通过一笔大宗交易，处置了部分公开市场投资组合，从而彻底清除了基金的杠杆，并防止亏损进一步扩大。所有空头头寸均已平仓，对投资组合融资的依赖也已消除。 目前，我们管理的是一个全部以自有资金支付的公开市场投资组合，包括多头股票和全额支付权利金的多头期权，不使用保证金，因此不存在强制平仓风险。” ---------- 我好奇的是，观察后面他的基金是否还用杠杆，看到底是这个教训的疤痕，跟杠杆的诱惑力，哪个更强大。

你不要想着crcl今天是不是最后一次80以下 也不要想着明天就能起飞 这些都是不靠谱的预测 虽然我有时候自己也会有这种幻想 我之前贴过图的 你找下tsla btc 英伟达在横盘期的k线 谁能知道哪一次是tsla最后一次200亿美金 谁能知道哪一次是btc最后一次1000u单价 谁能知道英伟达哪一次是最后1000亿市值 有太多次击穿这个价格了 可能有100次那么多吧 也就意味着你要被挑衅100次 但是你只要在这个价格买了 拿到今天了 你都赚够了 所以不想想你买完就是最底价 不要想你买完5分钟就开始起飞 总有那么一次 它过了100u的单价 200u的单价 就再也不回头了 但是是哪一次 只有事后诸葛亮才知道

初创公司 往往团队是很重要的 尤其是ceo的能力 在tsla的历史上 如果没有musk 这公司真的可能黄了几次了 毫无疑问musk是那个亿里挑一的创业者 但是有一些公司 ceo和团队的光环效应并不需要那么强 比如茅台、可乐、支付宝、微信 其实大家对其ceo和其他高管都非常陌生 从股东的角度考虑 买入ceo不重要的公司其实是更安全的 在我以前买tsla并且持有的的过程中 总有人问一个重复问题 如果musk死了怎么办 其实就像你问早期的伯尔希尔 如果巴菲特死了怎么办 那只能凉（拌）了 我觉得crcl 是更接近茅台可乐支付宝微信这种企业 创业团队比品牌比 品牌知名度更高 搭建这个品牌也比组建这个团队更难 我的看法可能不正确 也只是我个人的感觉 稳定币还是成长赛道 你说如果有个musk这样的创业者 来干稳定币这件事会怎样 那可能市场格局也会有变数 好的企业和好的管理者是互相成就的 起码新的管理者不能添乱 比如茅台你起码别来个捣乱的ceo 他自己就不会有太大问题 crcl换cfo自然是有风险的 比如是不是可能换个差劲的人进来 所以市场还是以下跌来回应 但往后回顾crcl的高管换帅 我觉得这是个非常小的插曲 无关轻重其实

一个曾经帮助过我的房产经纪人近日突然过世，原因是她最近和丈夫去欧洲旅游休假，在某地品尝了生蚝，她丈夫吃了七个，她尝了一个，结果她感染了（Necrotizing fasciitis）噬肉菌，回美国后住院治疗，但是为时以晚，医生也无力回天，在切除了一些器官之后还是没有抢救过来。 最好远离生蚝。

Palantir CEO Alex Karp explains how to make yourself valuable when LLMs make general knowledge cheap: He starts from the premise that AI has already changed what knowledge is worth. "The thing about the commodity nature of LLM is it commodifies general knowledge." If a model can hand anyone broad, general information, that information no longer sets you apart. Karp says this matters most for one kind of person: the classically smart generalist. He uses Yale as his example, and he says he picks it because it's strong. "I like to pick on people who are strong. It's a very strong school." He still recommends the top schools: "There's a couple schools you should go to if you get into. Yale's one, Stanford's one. There's some schools you maybe should go to otherwise go to the cheapest school and come to [Palantir] or just come here." His point is that the degree alone doesn't protect you. General intelligence without specific knowledge does not hold up well: "If you are the kind of person that would have gone to Yale would have ear kind of classically high IQ um and you have generalized knowledge but it's not specific you're effed." So how do you become valuable? Karp's answer is to build deep, specific domain knowledge, the kind of practical ability that general knowledge can't stand in for. He gives concrete examples: "How do I actually bend the metal of the hull on a ship?" "How do I actually write a script that allows me to target terrorists..." "How do I put the cement in a factory with such precision that you can build a factory like it was built in Taiwan in America?" He also describes someone with only a high school diploma who can diagnose what's going wrong in a complicated device that would otherwise need a Japanese engineer to fix. Then he names the category plainly: "How do I do anything with deep specific particularly voca what's considered vocational training?" Karp says these are the people who will be rewarded: "Those people are going to make a a lot more money simply because you can turn it any way you want, but at the end of the day, within a relative rapid amount of time, you will get paid downstream of the value."

Sam Altman on one of the highest-return years of his career: no job, exploring his interests, and a lot of people who were nice enough to teach him things. "I read many dozens of textbooks. I learned about fields that I had been interested in. I didn't have any idea that they were all gonna come together in the way they did." "I learned a lot about nuclear engineering. AI was starting to work, so I learned a lot about AI. I learned about synthetic biology. I learned about investing." " I met people that were working on all sorts of different things who were nice enough to talk to me." "If I met someone interesting and it seemed good and needed help, I would just help them. And they would teach me stuff, or they would offer me the chance to invest in their startup later." "Out of all of it, almost all of it didn't work out. But the seeds were planted for things that worked in deep ways later." @sama w/ @CraigCannon (Nov 2018)