My latest supply-chain surveys indicate that Carl Zeiss SMT will significantly expand its EUV and higher-ASP immersion DUV optical system capacity by 20-25% YoY and 40-50% YoY, respectively, in 2027 to meet robust demand from ASML. Coupled with stronger-than-expected shipment outlooks for 2026, ASML's revenue is projected to reach €38–40bn in 2026 and €45–47bn in 2027, outperforming market consensus of ~€34–36bn and ~€41–43bn. Key drivers behind the upside vs. consensus are as follows: 1. 2026 Growth Drivers: ➢ EUV and DUV shipments are estimated at 67 and 355 units, surpassing consensus of 53–55 and 310–320 units. ➢ Driven by strong 2nm demand, TSMC has upwardly revised its 2026 EUV orders twice: from an initial 22 units to 25 units last October, and currently to 28 units. ➢ To capture robust demand from Chinese memory makers, ASML plans to launch a new immersion DUV model NXT:1965i in 4Q26. As a down-spec version of the 1980i series, it complies with U.S. export controls while addressing Chinese clients' needs, serving as a key growth driver for 4Q26 and 2027. 2. 2027 Growth Drivers: ➢ 2027 capacity for both EUV and immersion DUV is currently fully booked thanks to the strong demand; further shipment upside will hinge on ASML’s supply-side improvements. ➢ Based on Zeiss SMT’s expansion, ASML’s 2027 shipments are projected to reach 80–85 EUV systems and 380–400 DUV systems. ➢ Boosted by the new 1965i launch, China’s procurement of high-ASP immersion DUV is expected to grow ~40% YoY in 2027. 3. Additional Upside Potential to Monitor: ➢ Potential ASP hikes for EUV and DUV systems amid prolonged supply tightness. ➢ Ongoing upward revisions for the new 1965i model from Chinese memory suppliers. ➢ Potential Intel Upside: The above estimates exclude incremental EUV demand from Intel. Although Intel has not officially placed orders (explaining its previously lower-than-expected Capex guidance), it has entered discussions with ASML for additional bookings. Intel's incremental EUV demand is projected at 20–30 systems over 2026–2027, of which 3–5 are High-NA EUV.