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MichaelTurtle 2026年加油版
@shawnchen_eth
在web3 載浮載沉的烏龜 .. @goosecitydao
加入 January 2021
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a16z 成長基金負責人 David George 發布《State of Markets II》,100 多張圖看 2026 市場,核心一句:科技不再只是一個產業,而是「一切的週期」 ・AI 基建占美國 GDP 比重已超過當年鐵路大建設 ・四大雲端廠 2026 資本支出約 $780B(2025 年 $416B),2027 年預估破 $1T,供應鏈需求仍大於供給 ・今年最大主題:資金從軟體轉向硬體,算力、記憶體、電力、機器人、國防吸引幾十年來最強的投資 ・不是泡沫:美股漲約 20%、本益比反降約 20%,標普不到 20 倍,跟 2000 年動輒 100 倍完全不同 ・今年標普獲利成長約 76% 來自科技股 ・企業 AI 廣但淺:69% 標普公司有 AI 上線,只有 2% 有長期追蹤成效指標 ・Agent 時代剛開始:現在幾百萬用戶,潛在幾十億人,META、GOOG 每年從每個美國用戶賺 $200+,agent 變現空間更大 ・軟體股約 75% 已獲利,但年增 20%+ 只剩約 30%,拿成長換獲利 ・Anthropic、OpenAI、Databricks、Stripe、Waymo、Revolut 六家估值合計約 $2.4T,超過過去十年所有 IPO 總和 ・未來 5 年押注:消費級 agent、機器人、自動駕駛、AI×生技、個人健康、AI 進企業、美國製造與國防 原文:
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Introducing our State of Markets pt 2, along with a companion podcast where we unpack the data and discuss what comes next. Tech is the everything cycle. Supply: putting the buildout in context, just passed railroads as % of GDP. The wisdom of Elon is real: the factory (or the datacenter!) is the product. Demand: diffusion is so, so early. Median AI vendor spending in the top 1% of companies is 8x that of the top 10%. Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies report a quantified AI impact, which means there’s a substantial opportunity in connecting models to a company's data and workflows. Diffusion into companies is one of the main themes of the next 5 years. We’re entering the agent work period. Only a few million users today, but applicable to billions of internet users with massive surplus created. META/GOOG monetize US users at $200+ per year today. Agent opportunity is much higher. Mega-trends the next 5 years: Consumer agents, Robotics, Autonomy, AI x bio, Personal health, Diffusion into enterprise, New era of American Dynamism. Much more in our SoM report here - @a16z @sarahdingwang @aleximm @santiago__rdz
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