Stablecoins solve two core problems: expanding the individual buyer base for U.S. Treasuries & enabling frictionless cross-border capital flows.
Stage 1 — Total stablecoin supply hits $3T by 2028, with a wave of competing issuers entering the market.
Stage 2 — A full ecosystem builds on top: lending, yield products, and more. The dollar swallows everything.
Stages 1 & 2 aren't sequential, they'll most likely develop in parallel.
One key risk to watch: U.S. deficit dynamics. So I'm anchoring this timeline to pre-2030 for now.
My piece from last year on the dollar, Treasuries & stablecoins & DeFi: