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American wages are not keeping up with inflation. US average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation fell -0.3% YoY in September, marking the 5th consecutive decline in real wages. This follows a -0.2% YoY decrease in August, -0.3% in July, and -0.8% in June, the largest decline since May 2023. This marks a sharp deterioration from +1.3% YoY growth in real wages recorded in February. This all comes as US CPI inflation has remained above +3.0% for 6 consecutive months, the longest such streak since mid-2024. Meanwhile, in nominal terms, average hourly earnings rose +3.0% YoY in September, their slowest growth since May 2021. Nominal wage growth has been in a downtrend since March 2025, when earnings grew +4.2% YoY. Inflation is eroding the spending power of Americans.
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# Decision Points in AI Agent Development # Temperature 🎯 The Hook Are you using the same temperature for every task in your agent? Temperature isn't just a "creativity knob." In agent systems, structured outputs, tool calls, and user-facing responses each need fundamentally different temperature settings. Using one value for everything is leaving performance on the table. 📋 Overview Temperature controls how "peaked" or "flat" the probability distribution is when an LLM selects its next token. Near 0, the highest-probability token wins almost every time, producing deterministic and stable output. Higher values flatten the distribution, allowing lower-probability tokens through, increasing diversity and creativity. In AI agent systems, the optimal temperature varies dramatically across contexts: generating structured output, assembling tool call arguments, and producing free-form text each call for different settings. Temperature should be treated as a dynamic variable that shifts with task type, not a single fixed constant. 🔍 Decision Points Temperature is primarily driven by task_variability -- how routine vs. creative the task is. The decision flow is straightforward 🧭 1. Structured output (JSON / function calling)? → 0.0-0.3 2. Accuracy-first (fact extraction, classification, summarization)? → 0.2-0.5 3. Dialogue, explanation, communication? → 0.5-0.7 4. Creative writing, brainstorming, candidate generation? → 0.7-1.0 Additionally, higher failure_cost pushes the temperature ceiling down, and high cost_sensitivity environments should account for retry cost increases from higher temperatures. 💡 Key Details Reference values by task type 📊 - Structured output (JSON / function calling): 0.0-0.3. Minimizing schema violations is the priority - Classification, extraction, data transformation: 0.0-0.2. Accuracy and reproducibility are paramount - Summarization, explanation, customer support: 0.5-0.7. Balance naturalness with accuracy - Creative writing, brainstorming, candidate generation: 0.7-1.0. Diversity is the source of value - Tool argument generation: 0.0-0.2. Precise function and argument names are non-negotiable - Planning and reasoning: 0.3-0.6. Some exploration helps, but maintain logical consistency Start structured output temperature at 0. If schema violations occur at 0, the problem is your prompt or schema -- never rely on higher temperature to "accidentally" produce correct output 🚫 ⚖️ Trade-offs Too low and conversations become robotic 🤖 The model returns identical answers to identical questions, giving users a "template response" impression. Best-of-N sampling also breaks down -- candidates become near-identical, costing N times more for essentially N=1 results. Too high and structured outputs start breaking 💥 JSON field names drift, types mismatch, hallucinations increase -- especially dangerous for proper nouns, numbers, and dates. Tool call instability and loss of reproducibility compound the problem. Monitor the retry cost impact of temperature changes. If schema violation rates exceed roughly 5%, consider lowering the temperature. 🛠️ Use Cases Vary temperature by pathway within a single agent 🔀 Planning steps at 0.3-0.5, tool argument generation at 0.0-0.2, user-facing responses at 0.5-0.7. When switching models, adjust temperature simultaneously for a natural fit. Using Best-of-N? You need to raise the temperature. Generating N=5 candidates at temperature 0 produces 5 near-identical outputs. For N>1, set temperature to 0.5-0.8 and let a Judge select the best from diverse candidates. Be careful combining temperature with top_p ⚠️ Adjusting both simultaneously creates multiplicative effects with unpredictable behavior. As a rule, tune one and leave the other at its default. #AIAgents# #SoftwareArchitecture#
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FRANCE (AUG) Manufacturing Production MoM ACTUAL: 0.3% VS -0.8% PREVIOUS;EST 0.3%
US RETAIL SALES (MOM) (SEP) ACTUAL: 0.8% VS 1.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%
GERMANY (JUL) EXPORTS SA MOM ACTUAL: -0.8% VS 0.9% PREVIOUS;EST 0.3%
UK Industrial Production (M/M) Aug: 0.8% (est -0.1%; prev 0.2%) - Industrial Production (Y/Y): 1.6% (est 0.7%; prev 0.6%) - Manufacturing Production (M/M): 1.2% (est 0.0%; prev 0.9%) - Manufacturing Production (Y/Y): 3.0% (est 2.3%; prev 2.6%)
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France Industrial Production (M/M) Aug: -0.3% (est 0.2%; prev -0.4%; prev R -0.6%) - Industrial Production (Y/Y): 0.3% (est 1.2%; prev -0.5%; prev R -0.6%) - Manufacturing Production (M/M): 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev -0.8%) - Manufacturing Production (Y/Y): -0.1% (prev -2.0%)
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August wholesale inventories (blue) rose +0.7% m/m vs. +1.3% prior … retail inventories up +0.3% m/m vs. +0.8% prior
Premarket movers: Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia +0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Alphabet -0.7%, Apple -0.4%, Amazon -0.9%, Microsoft -0.8%, Meta Platforms -0.5% Best Buy (BBY) slips 2% after DA Davidson cut the recommendation on the consumer electronics retailer to neutral, citing the stock’s valuation following a 35% year-to-date gain. Bloom Energy (BE) rises 6% and Everpure (P) gains 2% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the companies will join the S&P 500 Index. Boston Scientific (BSX) slips 2% after the company said that the cyber attack that recently affected operations is likely to have a material impact on third quarter and fiscal 2026 results. Herbalife (HLF) rises 7% after the maker of dietary supplements announced a $250 million share buyback. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) falls 10% and Amgen (AMGN) slumps 5% after Novartis AG said its heart medication, pelacarsen, failed in a final-stage study. Pharvaris (PHVS) soars 25% after a Phase 3 trial of its deucrictibant extended-release tablet for the prevention of hereditary angioedema attacks met its primary and secondary endpoints. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) rises 5% after the quantum computing firm signed a $100 million pact with the US Department of Commerce to accelerate superconducting quantum computing R&D. Roivant (ROIV) gains 20% after the drugmaker said a mid-stage study of its inhaled drug, mosliciguat, met its primary endpoint in the treatment for a lung disease. Sigma Lithium (SGML) drops 16% after a Brazilian court ordered the suspension of all environmental permits for an operating subsidiary of the company and the complete halt of mining activities for the firm’s Grota do Cirilo lithium project. Sweetgreen (SG) is up 5% after KeyBanc raised its recommendation on the salad restaurant chain to overweight, calling it a compelling turnaround opportunity.
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BREAKING Core PPI (MoM) Act.: 0.1%, Est.: 0.3%, Prev.: 0.8%