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Price changes over last year (August CPI report) Fuel Oil: +52.0% Gasoline: +27.4% Gas Utilities: +4.4% Electricity: +3.8% Apparel: +3.6% Overall CPI: +3.4% Food away from home: +3.4% Shelter: +3.0% Medical Care: +2.5% Transportation: +2.4% Food at home: +2.2% New Cars: +0.6% Used Cars: -2.3%
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🇺🇸US DATA RUNS HOT: INFLATION STICKY, DEMAND FIRM INFLATION • Headline PCE MoM: +0.2% vs +0.1% est.; prior -0.1% • Headline PCE YoY: +3.7% vs +3.6% est.; prior +3.7% • Core PCE MoM: +0.2% vs +0.2% est.; prior +0.1% • Core PCE YoY: +3.3% vs +3.3% est.; prior +3.3% GDP • Q2 GDP annualized: +1.5% vs +1.5% est.; prior +1.5% • Personal consumption: +3.4% vs +3.2% est.; prior +3.2% • GDP Price Index: +6.4% vs +6.2% est.; prior +6.2% • Core PCE QoQ: +3.6% vs +3.4% est.; prior +3.4% INCOME & SPENDING • Personal income MoM: +0.4% vs +0.2% est.; prior +0.2% • Personal spending MoM: +0.2% vs +0.1% est.; prior +0.3% • Real personal spending MoM: 0.0% vs 0.0% est.; prior +0.4% DURABLE GOODS • Durable goods orders MoM: +1.1% vs +0.5% est.; prior +0.5% • Durables ex-transportation: +0.4% vs +0.6% est.; prior +0.7% • Core capital goods orders: +0.2% vs +0.7% est.; prior revised to +1.7% • Core capital goods shipments: +1.4% vs +1.0% est.; prior revised to +2.4% BOTTOM LINE: Inflation remains sticky while consumer demand and headline durable goods beat expectations. GDP growth was in line, but stronger price pressures could keep the Fed cautious on rates.
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NINE OF ELEVEN S&P 500 SECTORS CLOSED RED TODAY Semiconductors and energy were the only places that worked: - AMD $AMD +3.0% - Micron $MU +2.8% - Exxon $XOM +2.2% - Chevron $CVX +1.9% - Intel $INTC +1.7% Meta $META +6.6% was the largest gain in the S&P 500, while Google $GOOGL -2.3% split Communication Services down the middle. Industrials were the worst sector at -1.5%, led lower by GE $GE -2.8%, GE Vernova $GEV -2.1% and Boeing $BA -2.0%. Only 2 of 35 industrials and 2 of 11 communication services names finished green.
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The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2185.22, down 0.3% (-5.55) since yesterday's close. Seven of 20 assets are trading higher. Leaders: $DOT (+2.6%) and $BNB (+1.7%). Laggards: $SUI (-3.2%) and $TAO (-2.7%).
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Crossing this afternoon *FRANCE'S CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADED TO A+ FROM AA- AT SCOPE The U.S. credit rating is AA+ -- Trump will be upset because he thinks Sovereign (Government) yields are set by credit rating. The best credit rating gets the lowest yield. As the chart shows, France has had lower yields than the U.S. since 2013 (13+ years now) despite being a lower-rated credit, and now even lower. Better credit ratings getting lower yields works really well for junk-rated Atlantic City casinos (which he is an expert on), but not for government yields. Government yields are set on inflation expectations, growth outlooks, and borrowing amounts. So, why are French yields lower than US yields? They have lower inflation, smaller deficits, and much weaker growth.                 Real Deficits Nominal GDP   Inflation    (% of GDP)     GDP US           2.3%    3.2%               6.0%         5.3% France    0.9%    1.8%               4.7%          2.2%
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