Daily Brief, 29 Oct: Google spoils the bounce...crypto still hard to chase Get the brief by email: Join Rekt Mkts Pro: The awkward thing about this bounce is that good news from one part of AI keeps getting undone by another. Microsoft delivered on cloud growth, but Google's results have given ppl another reason to question to be concerned once again. BTC and ETH weren't doing much with the earlier strength in stocks and are softer too...waiting for crypto to catch up hasn't been particularly rewarding this week with majors feeling rather rooted...unless of course you picked HYPE! MACRO Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualised, above the 3.2% consensus and up from 2.2% in Q2. September core PCE came in at 0.3% month on month and 3.1% year on year, in line with expectations. Headline inflation was 0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year. PCE of course creates less volatility on markets than CPI, but I think it's comforting nonetheless to have no surprises - this comment can also be repeated for the FOMC which concluded yday and it might actually be one of the quietest FOMCs I've ever experienced which is not terribly surprising as per comments from previous briefs. As we know...all eyes on midterms next week tbh. EQUITIES S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are lower, with tech taking the bigger hit. Alphabet is down around 13% in early US trading while Microsoft is roughly flat, giving back its earlier gains. Google's free cash flow was negative $9.1bn despite Google Cloud revenue more than doubling, and search revenue missed expectations as LLMs eat its utility. Microsoft's better numbers have spared it that sort of punishment, but the initial enthusiasm hasn't all survived the open. Korean memory was mixed: SK Hynix finished up 2.6% (I think impressive to have held onto yesterday's big 10%+ increase on strong earnings), while Samsung fell 4.1%. Micron is down around 3.4% and Sandisk 3.1% in early US trading, so the strength in Hynix hasn't carried across to the US names and is likely more specific to its LTAs it has secured. Nebius is down around 5.6%, with the companies supplying extra compute capacity still getting a much rougher reception. CRYPTO BTC is down around 0.5% over 24H, ETH 0.3% and SOL 0.4%, while HYPE is up 14.1% after announcement of Druckenmiller/ICE investments in trade(xyz). HYPE was already leading this group in Tuesday's brief, but of course the gap is much bigger now. BTC and ETH haven't fallen much; they just aren't giving much back to anyone who bought them as a catch-up trade while stocks were bouncing. My gut says HYPE still struggles to break 100 on this move which feels like a very heavy resistance point. US spot BTC ETFs took in $137.3m yday, their third consecutive session of inflows, while ETH funds lost $21.4m, their third consecutive outflow. ZEC and VVV are each down around 0.4% over 24H, a quieter picture than their gains in Tuesday's brief. Their BTC ratios are only around 0.1% higher over the same period, so there's very little fresh relative strength to get excited about today. Good luck today.

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Daily Brief, 27 Oct: Does the market like the Anthropic S1? Get the brief by email: Join Rekt Mkts Pro: Anthropic filed its S1 yesterday as it gears for plans to IPO in mid-November. I suppose the fact that they still intend to go ahead with it is bullish, and signals demand is there...altho it's still early days (WeWork often plays thru my head...one that kinda fucked me...a story for another time). It would seem that equities were bulled up by the move, with many AI stocks squeezing hard yesterday, while crypto saw a day of underperformance vs stocks. MACRO The Fed begins its two-day meeting today, with the decision due tomorrow. Today's consumer confidence and new home sales reports give us another check on demand before that decision. Conference Board confidence is expected at 80.5 versus 81.9 previously; although I don't expect a huge amount of volatility from the number. The US 10Y is currently at 5% mostly unch'd, while the 30Y is around 5.30%, also unch'd. December WTI futures are around $101, down 0.8%, while gold futures are around $4,030, down 0.2%. Generally I'm not expecting too many red herrings this week and I think midterms + ANT are the things that are most important here. EQUITIES S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are higher, with tech leading. Korean memory has joined in much more convincingly than yday: SK Hynix finished up 5.2% and Samsung 4.2%, after both closed lower on Monday. Micron finished Monday up 3% and Nvidia 2.4%, so the US chip recovery did make it beyond the premarket gains and are set to open tepidly higher today. A successful ANT IPO would obviously be very bullish for AI stocks across the board after a rough few sessions; there's still a lot of moving parts and multiple scenarios of what could happen, but so far it's been a decent start given the reaction to the S1. After yday's discussion about access to funding, that's a concrete deal for the market to respond to. It shows substantial capital is still available for this particular customer and structure, not that every neocloud can borrow on the same terms. Microsoft and Alphabet report tomorrow, followed by Amazon on Thursday. The useful question is how much of the spending is turning into cloud revenue and cash generation...a financed chip purchase is good news for the supplier, but the customer still needs to earn enough from the capacity. CRYPTO BTC is down around 0.4% over 24H, ETH 0.3% and SOL 1.4%, while HYPE is up 1.2%. HYPE is still leading this group as it did in yday's brief, but SOL has gone from joining the bounce to lagging the other majors. BTC and ETH haven't fallen much; they just aren't doing much with the stronger backdrop in stocks either. VVV is up around 3% over 24H and ZEC 1.4%, so both are holding up better than BTC, with VVV now ahead of ZEC on the daily move. Their BTC ratios are up roughly 3.5% and 1.8% respectively over the same period and the strength has certainly been notable as BTC continues to barely hold on to 80K. As I said earlier, I think the reasons we have sold off are all actually bullish for ZEC, but when you have these initial moves lower, they often happen in a parallel fashion ie everything goes down. Once the dust settles, the market figures out what it actually wants to own, and the past week of ZEC/BTC going 13% higher shows its decision - I think we see this outperformance continue, and also think if BTC does manage to bounce it's going to be quite interesting for ZEC which should retest its recent highs. Good luck today.

Daily Brief, 26 Oct: Oil backs off...crypto finally joining in? Get the brief by email: Join Rekt Mkts Pro: Oil is giving back some of last week's rally, equity futures are higher and crypto is edging green too. Look...I think if Trump is gonna do something to hail mary the markets for midterms it's basically gotta be this week; could be something stronger/more concrete Iran or trade war related I'm not really sure, but you'd think they give it a shot. We've seen another situation of risk feeling awful into Friday, not following through into the weekend and looking like it's going to bounce on Sunday. What's frustrating is crypto clearly seems quite horny here, and I think we just need some macro stability so that it can flourish. MACRO The Fed decision is due Wednesday, with a pause widely expected after September's hike...CME FedWatch tool currently has the probability of a hike at just 9.4%. Despite that, another hike in December is still in the picture, so unchanged rates this week wouldn't mean the tightening is over...just prolonged. Personally I'm not expecting this month's FOMC to be much of a vol event, I don't think they are going to materially change the message either way alongside the aforementioned likelihood of rates holding. The US 10Y finished Friday near 4.99%, up around 3.5bps on the session. WTI futures are around $101.03, down 2.2%, while gold futures are around $4,030, up 0.6%. Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Tehran on Sunday as part of an effort to de-escalate tensions in coordination with the US. That gives oil a reason to give back some of last week's surge, but talks aren't a resolution to the supply risk and I suppose we'll continue to be volatile around headlines. EQUITIES S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are higher, with chips joining the recovery. Micron is up around 2.3% in premarket after Friday's 2.5% gain, while Nvidia is up 1.4%. Korean memory had a quieter session: SK Hynix finished down 0.2% and Samsung 1.2%. Hynix has held onto most of Friday's bounce; Samsung has given back its much smaller gain. Neoclouds are still getting sold after Musk warned that access to funding was drying up for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centres, and predicted consolidation. That's his assessment, not proof that every company in the group is in trouble, but it comes at a delicate time for names like CRVW, NBIS etc...not to mention Elon has vested interest himself. The contrast with chips is worth paying attention to though...ppl are buying parts of the AI trade while remaining much less comfortable with the companies borrowing to build the capacity. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report this week. Their cloud growth and spending plans should give a better read on whether demand is helping pay for the buildout. More capex can help suppliers without being what shareholders in the companies spending it want to hear. After the selling in recent weeks, another bigger spending number on its own may not be much reassurance. CRYPTO BTC and ETH are each up around 0.2% over 24H, while SOL is up 1.1% and HYPE 1.7%. HYPE has gone from lagging in Friday's brief to leading this group, but the two biggest names are still doing very little. Cheaper oil and firmer equity futures make for a friendlier backdrop...crypto is participating, just without much urgency in BTC or ETH ahead of the Fed. The latest fully reported ETF session is Thursday, 22 October: US spot BTC funds lost $635.6m and ETH funds lost $110.6m. Friday's entries show a further $137.9m leaving BTC and $4.4m entering ETH. The provisional week comes to $301.2m of BTC inflows and $220.7m of ETH outflows. Earlier BTC buying hasn't all disappeared, altho the end of the week looks much less encouraging than the start. I do find it hard to fully judge these flows as a lot of it is arb/delta neutral activity so I think worth taking with a pinch of salt a bit. ZEC is up around 2.9% over 24H and VVV 1.3%, a better response from the privacy and AI-related names after both lagged the majors in Friday's brief. Certainly notable outperformance from ZEC; the ZEC/BTC ratio is up around 11% in the past week, over 100% in the past 3 months but also still down 17% on the month - I think this outperformance feels like it's going to continue here, and it also feels like as soon as we get a bounce in BTC ZEC is likely to on its way to testing new local highs. Gonna be a fun week. Good luck today.

Daily Brief, 23 Oct: Risk tepid with the clock running down on midterms Get the brief by email: Join Rekt Mkts Pro: Crypto is looking steadier after another nasty US tech session, while memory is trying to recover. SK Hynix shelving its Solidigm IPO plans gives that bounce a company-specific reason, rather than just hoping the selling has gone too far. BTC and ETH are only slightly lower over 24H, which is a better response than following tech all the way down...but yday's substantial ETF outflows make the demand picture less comfortable than the quieter PA suggests. For the past few weeks you've been paid to trade the range and it's felt horrific to do it each time as the swings are so violent...really tough to sell on a big pump coz it always feels like a breakout...really tough to buy on a big dip coz it always feels like stuff is going to plummet...on paper it should be easy to trade but of course it's ever so hard! MACRO We've seen a massive move in rates with the 10Y hitting as low as 4.95%, almost 20bps off the highs of the week. That's meaningful bond relief, altho borrowing costs are still high and it didn't rescue tech - I just think stocks are impacting rates more than rates are impacting stocks...when we rally growth is less of a concern and inflation is more of a concern, and vice versa when we sell off. Oil rose sharply yday after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia renewed concerns about supply disruption. That leaves an awkward mix of cheaper Treasury yields and more expensive energy. December gold futures fell to around $4,030 in Asian trading today, so the bond rally hasn't translated into a bid for every supposed safe haven. EQUITIES S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are slightly lower. SK Hynix finished up 4.4% in Korea after opening lower, while Samsung gained just 0.5%. Hynix has recovered some of Thursday's sharp reversal; Samsung's much smaller bounce makes it harder to call this a convincing recovery across the whole group. SK Hynix has suspended its review of a funding round and US IPO for Solidigm. A separate listing had raised concerns about a discount to the parent company's value, so removing that uncertainty gives shareholders something specific to respond to. Micron and Sandisk are also higher in premarket after closing down 6.3% and 8.5% respectively yday. That's better follow-through from Korea than simply hoping the US names catch up but may also point to a short-covering bid. CRYPTO BTC, ETH and SOL are each down around 0.4% over 24H, while HYPE is down 1.2%. Much quieter than the selling in yday's brief, with the majors holding up reasonably well against the damage in tech. HYPE is still lagging, so this isn't quite a recovery lifting everything together. US spot BTC ETFs lost $635.6m yday, ending three consecutive days of inflows and more than reversing Wednesday's $524.8m buying. ETH funds lost $110.6m after Wednesday's $14.9m inflow. BTC still has $439.1m of net buying this week through Thursday, while ETH has lost $225.1m. Earlier BTC demand hasn't all disappeared, but the flow picture has taken a fairly sharp turn since yday's brief. Quieter selling in spot and money leaving the funds can both be true. ZEC is down around 4.1% over 24H and VVV 3.9%, so VVV's relative strength in yday's brief hasn't held. Both are lagging the majors rather than offering much shelter. The privacy and AI-related names we've been discussing still have a tougher day than BTC and ETH; that doesn't settle the longer-term case, but the outperformance hasn't arrived today. Good luck today and touch grass this weekend.

Daily Brief, 22 Oct: New day new hack(s) Get the brief by email: Join Rekt Mkts Pro: A less comfortable start after yday's recovery...stocks and crypto are giving some back, with Korean memory taking a particularly nasty hit. Treasury yields are falling too, so this isn't simply another day of higher rates dragging everything down. Better company numbers haven't disappeared overnight, but the willingness to buy the wider tech trade is looking less convincing. I believe the main reason for the market fears was the cyber-security scare that escalated yday, with critical PHP flaws triggering emergency patches and precautionary website shutdowns, while Railway separately warned of potentially exposed credentials. Millions of hacking attempts have since been reported, adding another reason to be nervous about tech, even if it doesn’t explain the whole sell-off (I still personally think all of this is bullish for ZEC). MACRO US jobless claims are due today, with 200k expected against 199k previously. A meaningful jump would add to the weaker-demand picture discussed yday; another low reading would make it harder to argue that the labour market is suddenly cracking. The 10Y is around 5.07%, down more than 7bps on the session, while the 2Y is around 4.77%, down more than 5bps. WTI is around $99 a barrel, with fresh reports that the US and Israel are considering renewed strikes on Iran keeping supply risk in the picture. Gold futures are around $4,088, down roughly 1.5%, so the buying in Treasuries isn't translating into a bid for every supposed safe haven. EQUITIES S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are lower, with tech under more pressure. SK Hynix finished down roughly 5.5% in Korea and Samsung 4%, reversing much of the strong bounce in yday's brief. Micron did join the recovery on Wednesday, closing up around 2%, but Korea is giving the US memory names a much less encouraging lead today. Meta's results give a better answer on growth than the broader tech selloff might suggest. Revenue rose 26% to $64.6bn, and the company guided to $73bn-$76bn for the next quarter. The shares initially rose after the report, but that hasn't stuck: they turned lower in premarket....likely due to the broader cyber security concerns. The spending question hasn't gone away though. Quarterly capex was $34.9bn and free cash flow was negative $2.1bn. Meta narrowed its full-year capex outlook to $135bn-$145bn, lifting the bottom end, and approved a new non-voting share class that could be used to raise capital. That isn't an announced cash raise, but it does make the discussion about funding the buildout more concrete. CRYPTO BTC is down roughly 1.9% over 24H, ETH 2.5%, SOL 2.2% and HYPE 3.8%. ETH and HYPE were ahead of BTC in yday's recovery; they're now falling harder. Getting a couple of green closes was encouraging, but it hasn't made crypto immune to another weak day in tech although its outperformance continues to be noteworthy. US spot BTC ETFs took in $524.8m yday, up from Tuesday's $23.2m and their third consecutive day of inflows. That brings this week's buying to roughly $1.07bn through Wednesday. ETH funds took in $14.9m, ending five consecutive days of outflows, altho they remain net negative for the week. The BTC demand picture is much better than Tuesday's small inflow suggested...today's weaker PA doesn't erase that buying, but the buying hasn't stopped the pullback either. VVV is up around 4.8% over 24H, significantly outperforming, while ZEC is down 2.4% despite surging above 15% yesterday. Worth noting that CYPH, a ZEC DAT+miner was also up about 20% yesterday although it's expected to be lower today along with the broader market move. As mentioned in the opening paragraph, I actually think yesterday's headlines continue to be bullish for ZEC, my expectation is you see an initial parallel move down with the market, but once the dust settles, you should see an outperformance. Good luck today...treacherous waters!

Daily Brief, 21 Oct: I hope they didn't panic you out of your bags Join Rekt Mkts: A better start for both stocks and crypto...memory is bouncing hard in Korea, BTC and ETH are recovering, and ZEC is comfortably ahead of the majors. As expected, Black Monday transpired into absolutely nothing...and even worse for the bears...both equities and crypto have displayed incredible strength this morning that I think will make bearish chartoooors question their positions. MACRO The 10Y is around 5.12%, up just 0.2bps from yday's close. Tuesday brought a fall of roughly 1.9bps in the 10Y and 4.7bps in the 30Y, with the latter around 5.43% in that session. Some relief at the long end...I do wonder sometimes though are we yet to see the real impact of rates on . Gold futures are around $4,141, roughly flat. December WTI futures are around $99.19. Yday's oil reversal came alongside reports of possible US-Iran diplomatic progress, but those talks are still uncertain. September US housing starts also fell 5.2%, while pending home sales dropped 7.3%. That gives the bond rally a weaker-demand backdrop too...it isn't all about oil or the next inflation print. Today's US oil inventories are the next scheduled check on the energy side. EQUITIES S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are higher, with tech leading. SK Hynix finished up roughly 5.8% in Korea and Samsung 5.7%, a much stronger move than the modest bounce discussed on Monday. Micron and Sandisk still finished Tuesday's US session lower, but they are up pre mkt today and I would expect them to have a good day today (I am still cautious on these tickers though). Supermicro expects preliminary quarterly revenue of $18.5bn to $19.5bn against its previous $14.5bn to $15.5bn guidance. Its shares are up more than 10% in premarket following the update, with Dell and HPE also higher. These are preliminary numbers, but at least the market is getting a stronger sales estimate and buying the stock on it. That was missing when good chip numbers failed to stop last week's selling. It doesn't settle what memory suppliers can charge, or how customers finance the next round of investment. Server demand is encouraging for the wider AI trade, but it isn't a direct answer to the competition question in memory. If buying carries into the US memory names and survives the close, the rebound starts looking more convincing. Another round of selling into strength would be a pretty frustrating response to better company news and I still feel like that's what I would personally be doing if I still owned these names (which I don't). CRYPTO BTC is up roughly 2.1% over 24H, ETH 2.9%, SOL 2.5% and HYPE 3.7%. A better showing than Monday's fairly quiet start, with ETH and HYPE ahead of BTC. The recovery isn't confined to stocks, and the majors are participating rather than leaving all the action to a couple of smaller names - this feels like a delayed reaction to "the market not nuking and actually performing well" this week and maybe we just needed a couple of days of green confirmed closes for crypto to really get going. US spot BTC ETFs took in $23.2m yday. ETH funds lost $103.3m on Monday, 19 October; Tuesday's ETH total is still unconfirmed here. Better PA, but those flows don't yet give a convincing picture of buying across both assets. ZEC is up roughly 12.1% over 24H and VVV 5.2%, both comfortably ahead of BTC. Those were already part of the privacy and AI-related discussion in recent briefs, but the leadership has flipped from Monday, when VVV was making the stronger move. ZCAT is also up around 17.8%. I think we've seen a good few days of profit taking in these popular names with associated consolidation - hopefully we're through that now and it's still my pick for a cycle narrative. Good luck today.

Daily Brief, 19 Oct: Stocks bounce, crypto edges up. Friday forgotten? Crypto is slightly off the lows. Cheaper oil helps the tech bounce, but the dreaded cash open awaits Read it free:

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