CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.

During Tesla Cybercab launch week in Austin, I took a total of 12 paid Cybercab rides and kept every receipt. TOTAL: • 12 rides • 29.7 miles traveled • $108.34 total spent • $3.65 average cost per mile • 2 hours and 19 minutes riding around Austin in a Cybercab • Compared to Uber and Waymo, every Cybercab ride was still ~30-50% cheaper EACH OF MY CYBERCAB RIDES: 1/ Sept 3 — 7:23 PM 3.9 miles · 16 min · $8.70 ≈ $2.23/mile 2/ Sept 3 — 7:53 PM 0.5 miles · 6 min · $4.65 ≈ $9.30/mile 3/ Sept 4 — 6:52 AM 2.5 miles · 12 min · $6.99 ≈ $2.80/mile 4/ Sept. 4 — 7:13 AM 2.4 miles · 11 min · $6.84 ≈ $2.85/mile 5/ Sept. 4 — 7:39 AM 1.8 miles · 11 min · $6.16 ≈ $3.42/mile 6/ Sept. 4 — 8:03 AM 1.4 miles · 8 min · $5.69 ≈ $4.06/mile 7/ Sept. 4 — 8:20 AM 3.3 miles · 15 min · $7.90 ≈ $2.39/mile 8/ Sept. 4 — 10:58 AM 4.0 miles · 19 min · $8.78 ≈ $2.20/mile 9/ Sept. 4 — 11:58 AM 2.6 miles · 8 min · $7.08 ≈ $2.72/mile 10/ Sept. 4 — 2:17 PM 2.8 miles · 11 min · $13.71 ≈ $4.90/mile 11/ Sept. 5 — 12:57 PM 2.4 miles · 10 min · $16.18 ≈ $6.74/mile 12/ Sept. 5 — 1:36 PM 2.1 miles · 12 min · $15.66 ≈ $7.46/mile One of the biggest things I learned from actually using Cybercab is that you cannot judge the economics from just one ride. Pricing is dynamic. Some of my longer rides came in cheaper around $2.20–$2.40 per mile. Some of the shorter or higher-demand rides were much more expensive. Sometimes, the Cybercab was even more expensive than the Model Y (Unsupervised) bc the demand was so high. Some of the rides also became more expensive as Cybercabs became bookable on September 4 to the general public. However, it’s hard for me to look at these receipts and not wonder how Uber and Lyft can compete if Tesla can scale Cybercab the way it wants to. Uber and Lyft were built around connecting riders with human drivers. That means every ride has to support a much bigger cost stack... like 1/ A human has to be paid. 2/ That person needs a car. 3/ That car has to be financed or purchased. 4/ It needs insurance. 5/ Maintenance. 6/ Fuel or charging. 7/ And then Uber or Lyft still needs its cut. Cybercab attacks the biggest cost in that entire system which is the driver... there is no driver waiting to be paid at the end of the ride. And Tesla is supplying the software. Tesla can build the car. Build the battery. Build the autonomy system. Operate the network. Control the app. Control the charging. And the team designed the Cybercab from Day 1 around being a Robotaxi instead of taking a normal consumer car and trying to make the economics work. This is a big deal. Bc if Tesla can manufacture these at huge scale, keep them on the road for most of the day, and keep bringing the cost per mile down, then Uber and Lyft are going to be competing with the company that built the vehicle, the driver, and the network ALL AT ONCE. And this was during launch week... with just ~45 Cybercabs, before this vehicle is anywhere close to mature scale. If Tesla can push that cost down further as the fleet grows to thousands and millions, while Uber and Lyft still have to pay a human being to sit behind the wheel… I really don't see how these companies can survive... I think the days of Uber and Lyft are limited.

Premarket movers: Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Nvidia (NVDA) falls 2.3% as AI leaders called for a slower pace of development of their most advanced and lucrative models (Alphabet +1.8%, Amazon -0.4%, Apple +0.5%, Meta +2.6%, Microsoft +0.3%, Tesla -1.5%) Chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-related firms slide. Decliners include Intel (INTC) -6%, Micron (MU) -5% and CoreWeave (CRWV) -7%. Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) gains 6% after the Financial Times reported that billionaire Michael Dell’s family office is nearing a deal to acquire the insurance brokerage firm. Corning (GLW) falls 9% after entering into a $2 billion equity distribution agreement with Goldman Sachs. Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) rises 16% after the company announced that its Phase 3 Panorama study met its primary and key secondary efficacy endpoints. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) falls 7% after Evercore ISI downgraded the company to inline from outperform, citing valuation in the wake of recent strength. Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) falls 9% after AstraZeneca’s Etcamah failed to meet the primary endpoint of progression-free survival in a late-stage trial in first-line advanced breast cancer. Rum Group (RUM) rallies 11% after the Information reported that Anthropic has struck a $13.7 billion compute pact with the firm. Scholar Rock (SRRK) rises 6% after the drug developer said the US FDA has approved its muscle-targeted therapy for spinal muscular atrophy. Analysts are positive about the approval, with many raising their price targets ahead of the drug launch.

In 2023, more than 5,000 attended the 30th Annual "OWN IT!" Baron Conference at New York's iconic Met Opera House. The 2024, 31st Annual "Building Legacy" Baron Conference on November 15th at The Met… features exceptional executives of SpaceX...MSCI...Arch Capital...and Red Rock Resorts...the Baron Capital team...incredible entertainment...and an ice cream cone served by former ice cream truck driver Ron... Oh yeah...good luck winning one of three awesome Tesla Y door prizes. All expenses, including door prizes...are paid by @BaronCapital...not our clients... Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the investment carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectuses contain this and other information about the Funds. You may obtain them from the Funds’ distributor, Baron Capital, Inc., by calling 1-800-99-BARON or visiting Please read them carefully before investing. Portfolio holdings as a percentage of net assets as of June 30, 2024 for securities mentioned are as follows: Space Exploration Technologies Corporation - Baron Asset Fund (2.9%), Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (0.9%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (10.3%), Baron Global Advantage Fund (6.1%), Baron Opportunity Fund (2.8%), Baron Partners Fund (13.2%*); Tesla, Inc. - Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (3.2%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (8.6%), Baron Global Advantage Fund (3.3%), Baron Opportunity Fund (3.5%), Baron Partners Fund (28.9%*), Baron Technology Fund (2.5%); MSCI Inc. - Baron Asset Fund (0.5%), Baron Durable Advantage Fund (2.1%), Baron FinTech Fund (2.5%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (3.1%), Baron Growth Fund (9.8%), Baron Partners Fund (1.8%*); Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Baron Asset Fund (4.8%), Baron Durable Advantage Fund (2.1%), Baron FinTech Fund (3.0%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (6.4%), Baron Growth Fund (12.7%), Baron International Growth Fund (2.8%), Baron Partners Fund (9.5%*); Red Rock Resorts, Inc. - Baron Discovery Fund (1.6%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (3.9%), Baron Growth Fund (1.5%), Baron Partners Fund (1.5%*), Baron Real Estate Fund (1.7%), Baron Small Cap Fund (3.6%). *% of Long Positions. Portfolio holdings are subject to change. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. All expenses associated with this conference are paid by Baron Capital, Inc. No conference expenses are paid by Baron Funds. BAMCO, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Baron Capital, Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (FINRA).

Last wk, SPX/Nas/R2K +0.5%/+0.8%/-1.5% w/ oil -4%. But a hawkish Warsh on Friday led to a bear flattening of the yield curve. Despite $NVDA guide of 70% CY27 rev growth vs consensus of 47%, SOX Index -2.3% while software $IGV +5.9% on solid earnings. In general, many AI investors have been bullish on semiconductors and bearish on software on the belief that AI will displace many point solution software companies. This is why the SOX index is up 62% YTD and IGV is still only up 4% YTD versus the S&P +13%. Situational Awareness was the poster child for this type of positioning. But since the unwinding of the Momentum trade which started on 6/22 (I wrote about these concerns on 6/20), IGV has rallied 25% while the SOX Index has declined 22% through 8/28. For perspective, the Morgan Stanley Momentum index (momentum long performance minus momentum short performance) from 6/22-8/28 is down 36% while their more concentrated TMT index is down 54%. But a bullish twist on AI for the software sector introduced recently is that AI agents will access software tools ~10-100x more often than humans. On 8/6, $TEAM, which was in the bucket of software names widely considered at risk of being replaced by AI, rallied 35% the next day in reaction to solid earnings & outlook. Then on 8/13, $WDAY rallied 18% on the news that private equity firm Silverlake might be pursuing an acquisition which I wrote probably put a floor underneath software. Workday was also supposed to be in the AI crosshairs and private equity has higher bars to clear given their use of leverage and holding period than a typical investor. Then on 8/26, $CRM reported solid results, guidance and a deal with Anthropic (in which they also first invested in May of 2023.) The stock was up 23% in reaction the next day. This seemed to be a strong counterpoint to the SaaS-pocalypse worries. This strategic alliance allows users to execute actions natively inside Claude without needing to open traditional software screens. Salesforce also seems to be changing how they charge customers with fees more related to customer use and benefits to their business. Then on 8/27, Workday reported results which were good enough but arguably acquisition prospects drove more of the stock reaction of +6% the next day from the slightly down opening price. Historically, system of record, security and gaming software have been the only three areas I have liked within software. I now wonder whether the fundamental implications of Atlassian, Workday and Salesforce are supportive of the technical reactions in the software stocks as a group as agentic AI continues to ramp. So how do I square this with my concerns that the rapidly escalating amounts spent on AI by corporations has to come from somewhere? Annualized revenue run-rates for Anthropic and OpenAI have ramped from $29B to start the year to $105B just 7 months later. Software spending globally excluding AI was roughly $1 trillion in 2025. But IT services at $1.7 trillion is a bigger category which I believe still has risk. And finally, knowledge worker compensation is an even bigger category where disruption would be even less noticeable at an estimated $35-50 trillion in 2025 or roughly 30% of the global workforce. Looking forward, the deal on Friday for Venezuelan oil fields that hold the largest crude reserves in the world at 17-18% should get us off to a positive start to the week with declining oil prices. But a bit further out: 1) “Don’t Fight the Fed” given I believe a hike is likely on 9/16 because the 10/28 mtg is right before mid-terms, 2) September has the poorest seasonality of all months, 3) there is even worse seasonality than normal during mid-term election years (see prior posts for more detail) and 4) recent bipartisan pushback against datacenter expansion (one of the few things both sides seem to agree on though I believe this is wrong and hope it will change with more education) puts pressure on the AI infrastructure names. As Warren Buffett says, the market has to keep pitching but you do not need to swing.

📌 VI. Trigger Matrix (V2.0 – Observation Status Log) Observation Item Current Value Threshold Status Consecutive Days/Trend Super-Capital Concentration Risk 9.3 8.0 ESCALATION ↑ 1 day (new) AI Governance Risk 8.8 8.0 ESCALATION ↑ 1 day (new) Resilience Ratio 0.63 0.70 ESCALATION ↑ 4 days US-Iran Deal Signing Status 接近 Formal Signing WATCH — Brent Crude Oil Price 3-mo low — THRESHOLD_CROSSED 1 day New Ebola Health Zone (DRC) Confirmed spread — THRESHOLD_CROSSED 3 days EU Accession Talks Launched — THRESHOLD_CROSSED 1 day Items Near Threshold (Elevated Observation): Observation Item Current Value Threshold Current Status • Formal signing of US-Iran deal 接近 Formal Signing ALERT • SpaceX market cap stability Above $2T Drop below $2T WATCH • OpenAI probe scope expands Multi-state Federal involvement ALERT • G7 Summit statements on AI & trade 即将 held Substantive regulatory共识 WATCH • Cross-border Ebola spread Risk rising First邻国 confirmed case ALERT • Clustered cases in fan zones No reports Confirmed cluster transmission WATCH --- 📅 VII. Key Observation List for the Next 72 Hours Grade A Observations (High Impact): Observation Item Potential Impact if Triggered 1. Formal signing of US-Iran MOU Geopolitical entropy pressure declines further, but execution risk仍需 assessed. 2. SpaceX market cap stability above $2T Test of sustainability for super-capital concentration narrative. 3. OpenAI probe expands to federal level Potential further upgrade to AI governance risk level. 4. G7 Summit statements on AI & trade First collective test of institutional response capacity. Grade B Observations (Medium Impact): Observation Item 1. Expansion of Ebola outbreak zone in DRC 2. Subsequent日程 for EU accession negotiations 3. Public health data during FIFA World Cup --- 📜 VIII. CRI Calculation Summary (V1.6) Variable Weight Risk Score Weighted Contribution V_capital 20% 9.3 1.86 V_tech 18% 8.8 1.58 V_inst 18% 8.1 1.46 V_geo 15% 7.5 1.13 V_human 10% 7.6 0.76 V_expansion 8% 7.9 0.63 V_market 6% 7.2 0.43 V_energy_price 5% 6.5 0.33 Total 100% CRI = 8.2 Calibration Notes: Added V_capital variable (weight 20%) to reflect super-capital concentration as a new structural risk dimension. V_tech上调 to 8.8 (AI governance race launch). V_geo下调 to 7.5 (US-Iran deal接近, declining war risk). --- 📌 IX. Structural Conclusion On June 13, 2026, the global civilizational system's Resilience Ratio remains below the 0.70警戒线 for the fourth consecutive day. What is most worth recording today is not war – but the first time in human civilization that private wealth approaches the GDP of a中等发达国家. When a single entrepreneur owns a satellite network, rocket system, AI platform, energy network, financial capital, and global data流入口, civilization is entering a new organizational form: Transitioning from nation-state-led civilization to platform-infrastructure-led civilization. If the core question of the 20th century was "How to constrain state power?", then the core question of the latter half of the 21st century may well become "How to govern super-platform power."

MACY'S $M Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $4.9B (Est. $4.83B) 🟢; +1.1% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.63; incl. $0.23 tariff refunds 🔹 Adj. EPS ex-Refund: $0.40 (Est. $0.37) 🟢 🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.62; +100% YoY; incl. refunds 🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $457M; incl. tariff refunds Raises FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $21.7B-$21.8B (Est. $21.91B) 🔴; from $21.5B-$21.75B 🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 7.8%-8.0% (Est. 8.1%) 🔴; from 7.7%-7.9% 🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.15-$2.35 (Est. $2.25) 🟡; from $2.00-$2.20 🔹 Comparable Sales Change: 1.0% to 1.5%; from 0.5% to 1.2% Other Q2 Metrics: 🔹 Comparable Sales: +2.7% 🔹 Go-Forward Business Comps: +2.8% 🔹 Macy's Comps: +1.1% 🔹 Bloomingdale's Comps: +11.3% 🔹 Bluemercury Comps: +6.2% 🔹 Gross Margin: 41.5%; incl. 180 bps refunds Key Updates: 🔸 Tariff refunds: $98M of IEEPA refunds received in Q2 and $18M after quarter end ($116M total); the net benefit was $84M pre-tax, $0.23 per share after tax and 180 bps of gross margin — excluding it, adjusted EPS was $0.40, +14% YoY, and gross margin was up 10 bps; the FY26 guide reinvests the majority of the refunds, with ~$0.05 per share flowing through to adjusted EPS Comments: 🔸 “The investments we're making are driving results across our portfolio, from the continued outperformance of our Reimagine 200 Macy’s stores, to meaningful double-digit growth at Bloomingdale’s and another solid quarter at Bluemercury.”

🎬 "The video looks realistic — but did it actually complete the task?" Video generation evaluation finally goes outcome-oriented. SemComp-Bench: Benchmarking Semantic Task Completion in Video Generation 💡 Overview When generating videos that complete tasks like "cook a dish" or "prune a plant" from reference images, current models reproduce procedures reasonably well — but systematically fail to be evaluated on whether the intended end-state was actually achieved. SemComp-Bench introduces a 6-domain, 1,273-instance dataset and a dual-axis evaluation framework powered by Doubao-Seed-1.8 VLM to close this gap. ⚠️ The Problem Existing benchmarks emphasize appearance consistency and intermediate procedural steps, leaving "final outcome achievement" and "semantic grounding in reference images" unevaluated as a joint criterion. 🔬 Evaluation Framework: Two Independent Dimensions · OA (Outcome Achievement) Score: ALL four criteria must pass — outcome realization, semantic grounding, entity consistency, and global visual continuity · GR (Generation Reliability) Score: average across five failure-oriented criteria — physical plausibility, visual clarity, artifact-free rendering, spatiotemporal coherence, text integrity 📊 Results (Detailed Instruction Condition) · OA leader: HunyuanVideo-1.5-720P at 37.8% — the best model still falls short of 40% · GR leader: Seedance 2.0 at 91.8% — yet ranks 4th in OA at just 20.0% · T2V (text-only) OA: only 0.6–5.0%, confirming visual reference is indispensable · Biggest bottleneck: Within-Scene Spatiotemporal Coherence (0.328–0.739) → OA and GR are independent capabilities. Generating polished videos and completing tasks are entirely different problems. #VideoGeneration# #Benchmark#

Norway Industrial Production (M/M) Jul: -7.1% (prev 7.6%) - Industrial Production (Y/Y): -1.8% (prev 9.1%) - Ind Prod Manufacturing (M/M): 0.7% (prev -1.0%) - Ind Prod Manufacturing (Y/Y): 1.5% (prev 0.7%)