ELECTION DAY FUTURES UPDATE: 1. S&P 500: -0.9% 2. Dow Jones: -0.5% 3. Nasdaq 100: -1.9% 4. Crude Oil: -1.0% 5. Gold: +0.7% The Nasdaq 100 is now trading at its lowest level since July 26th. Markets are pricing-in a near-certain Democrat "sweep."

CPI Details: CPI rose 0.6% MoM after rising 0.4% MoM in August; it rose 3.7% YoY The index for gasoline rose 9.1% in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index increased 5.2% over the month following a 2.1% increase in August. Electricity CPI rose 0.2% over the month. In contrast, the natural gas index decreased 0.3% in September. The shelter index rose 0.4% in September after rising 0.3% in August. The index for food was unchanged in September, as the index for food away from home increased 0.2% and the index for food at home fell 0.1%. It increased 2.5% over the last year.Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased in September, while the other three indexes increased. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.5%over the month, as the beef index fell 1.0%. The index for other food at home decreased 0.2 percent in September. The dairy and related products index decreased 0.9% over the month, as the milk index declined 2.0%. The energy index increased 20.4% YoY due in large part to the index for gasoline rising 34.2% over the same period. The natural gas index increased 5.0% YoY and the electricity index rose 4.4% YoY. Core CPI rose 0.3% in September, same as August. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel. Conversely, the index for communication was among the small number of major indexes that decreased in September. Shelter CPI increased 0.4% MoM, after rising 0.3% in August.Index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in September, and the index for rent increased 0.2%. Lodging away from home index rose 2.0% in September after rising 2.4% the previous month. Index for recreation increased 0.5% over the month after being unchanged in August. Used cars and trucks index rose 0.7% in September, and the education index increased 0.6%. New vehicles index, the personal care index, and the motor vehicle insurance index also increased over the month. Index for airline fares increased 1.2% in September, and the index for apparel rose 0.3%. The medical care index increased 0.1% in September after falling 0.2% in August. The index for hospital services rose 0.7% over the month. Prescription drugs index declined 1.2% in September. Index for physicians’ services was unchanged over the month. Communication CPI declined 0.2% in September after rising 2.3% in August. Index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged over the month.

OECD Forecasts US 2026 Growth Of 2.2% (Vs 2.0% In June), 2.1% In 2027 (Vs 1.8%) - World 2026 Growth Of 2.9% (Vs 2.8% In June), 3.0% In 2027 (Vs 3.1%) - China 2026 Growth Of 4.5% (Unchanged), 4.2% In 2027 (Vs 4.3%) - Euro Area 2026 Growth Of 1.0% (Vs 0.8% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.2%) - Japan 2026 Growth Of 0.8% (Vs 0.6% In June), 0.7% In 2027 (Vs 0.8%) - UK 2026 Growth Of 1.1% (Vs 0.9% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.1%)

Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 +0.4%/+0.1%/-0.8%. Cooler inflation (CPI, PPI) & economic data (consumer sentiment, retail sales) but +5% oil steepened the yield curve but lowered odds of a rate hike. Looking forward, I continue to believe the impact of Agentic AI with the advent of OpenClaw on January 30th has at least a year to run: 1) Token production has gone up roughly ~7.5x from the end of January more than offsetting the nearly 50% token cost reduction seen since open-weight model usage started to take off in May. 2) Combined annualized run-rate revenues for OpenAI and Anthropic which ended last year at $29B seems to be around $100B currently with Anthropic getting profitable in Q2. 3) Capex from the Big6 hyperscalers accelerated from 84% y/y/ in CQ1 to 92% in CQ2 with forecasts for nearly 100% in Q3. But this is being supported by cloud revenue growth at the 3 Big Public cloud vendors of $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL accelerating from 23% y/y in Q1:25 to 35% in Q1:26 to 43% in Q2:26. Arguable more important is public cloud operating margins expanded from 34% to 37% and 39% during those time periods. 4) The $500B financing deal backstopped by up to $125B from $NVDA adds even more lower cost money to fund AI capex spend for the non-hyperscaler players. Nvidia gained 0.5% last week. 5) The liquidation of Situational Awareness and retail accounts during July cleared out some of the frothiness in the AI related names In terms of negatives: 1) The cost of money (yields on government bonds) remain near the highest levels for the 30 yr tenor at 5.3% since 2007. 2) Given large scale offensive US military actions are seemingly off the tablein favor of financial sanctions, probably driven by current election polls, I now believe Iran is likely to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage until past the US mid-terms. This would be akin to them releasing the US hostages in 1981 (they were held for 444 days) just hours after President Reagan was sworn in replacing Carter. There were severe financial sanctions then also. 3) Since 1990, which happens to be the Gulf War, from the end of July through November 9th, which covers the reaction to all mid-term results, the performance is worse than non mid-term years. For mid-term years the median S&P500 gain from 7/31-11/9 is 0.9% with gains 56% of the time but the median peak loss from 7/31 is 6.2% (intra-period median peak loss of 9.9%.) For non mid-term years the median gain is 2.7% from 7/31-11/9 with gains 59% of the time and the median peak loss from 7/31 is 3.5% (intra-period median peak loss of 5.2%.) This year with the momentum seen by the Socialists which are not big business friendly, I see more risk than normal. 4) The easy money on the AI technical rebound from oversold levels on 7/29 due to the forced sale by Situation Awareness is probably over. There were negative stock reactions to headline beat and raise earnings on both revs & EPS for AI infrastructure winners $CSCO (-8% for the week but still up +45% YTD), $AMAT (-6%/+97%) and $COHR (-14%/+77%). While negatives can always be found, their biggest crime was arguably their recent bounce from 7/29-8/7 of 8%, 24% and 71% respectively and their market beating YTD gains. In summary, I remain bullish. Even from the end of July through November 9th during mid-term years since 1990, the S&P has an additional median gain of 4.2% to its peak before giving some of that back closer to the election. Given some of the negatives, especially the reaction to solid earnings data, I would add some hedges back on further market gains and get more selective. Consumer discretionary hedges should also make sense if oil is higher for longer. I believe value should continue to accrue to the infrastructure layer which includes 1) the public cloud vendors such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google and 2) the semiconductor companies. $INTC, my favorite semi company, still gained 0.8% last week despite: 1) a $20B equity offering which causes ~5% dilution and 2) being up 178% YTD. This clears the funding overhang. All the best in the week ahead.

The cost of consumer credit is rising. The average interest rate on a US credit card rose +0.2 percentage points in August, to 22.36%, its highest level in 12 months. This is now only 1.0 percentage point below the record 23.37% set in August 2024. Since 2021, the average credit card interest rate has surged +6.5 percentage points. By comparison, the 5-year average before the 2020 pandemic was 14.94%. Meanwhile, the average interest rate on a 5-year new car loan rose +0.4 percentage points in August, to 7.54%, its highest since August 2025. This is 3.5 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels, but 0.9 percentage points below its all-time high of 8.4%, recorded in August 2024. Consumer borrowing has rarely been this expensive.

U.S.-CANADA TRADE TENSIONS THREATEN GROWTH UBS warns escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions could undermine Canada’s economic recovery by weakening business confidence, consumer spending and investment. The bank cut its 2026 Canada GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.0%. While direct export exposure remains limited, UBS says broader supply-chain disruptions, weaker demand and investment uncertainty could amplify the economic impact.

U.S. FACTORY ORDERS BEAT EXPECTATIONS U.S. factory orders rose 0.9% in July, beating expectations for a 0.6% increase and rebounding from June’s decline. Orders excluding transportation climbed 0.6%, while orders excluding defense jumped 1.0%. Durable goods orders were confirmed at +1.1%, while nondurable goods orders increased 0.7%. However, computers and electronic products orders fell 1.1%, reversing June’s 3.1% gain. Overall, the data points to stronger U.S. manufacturing demand in July, despite weakness in the technology segment.

CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.

Two percent of @perpltrade's entire reward supply is sitting in a bucket only @tread_fi users can touch. It empties in fourteen days. Then it's gone for the remaining fourteen weeks. Don't fuck this one up. 👇 1. The supply is fixed. The room is still empty. 50,000 mPoints get minted every week whether 300 wallets trade or 30,000. Access codes came off three days ago. A point you earn now pays exactly what a point in week 16 pays, and right now you're splitting it with a fraction of the crowd that's coming. 2. @tread_fi users get 10,000 mPoints a week on top, for two weeks. 20,000 mPoints reserved for one terminal's users. Your edge over a frontend trader with identical volume is 1 + 0.2 x (Perpl's volume / Tread users' volume). If Tread runs 5% of Perpl's flow, you earn five times the points per dollar traded. 3. Perpl charges makers 0.9 bps to open and nothing to close. Opening $1M of notional on the book costs $90. Taking that same $1M off the book costs $690. Institutional market makers are excluded from mPoints, and that's the only exclusion the docs list. 4. Your floor is guaranteed before you deploy a dollar. $500,000 is committed regardless of what Perpl trades. Divide by 1,000,000 mPoints and every point is worth at least 50 cents, with the extra tiers pushing it toward a dollar. You can price your worst case today. Name another farm that lets you do that. Use my ref to get 5% points boost: SvSmBR8yYfX Fourteen days. After that you're one more wallet splitting 50,000 with everyone who shows up in September.