James Carville: “as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Despite Bessent’s efforts, bond ylds increased last wk 1-7 bps while S&P/Nas/SOX (AI proxy) -1.4%/-2.1%/-5.4%. Next wk has Iran sanctions (Mon), $NVDA earnings (Wed) & Warsh at Jackson Hole (Fri.) On Monday, the US is likely to put financial sanctions on Iran and any country supporting them in lieu of further military action going forward. The polling numbers in the US for support of the war are poor. But given China, who buys the most Iranian oil, will most likely be exempt from sanctions, I doubt this will have much impact other than what Iran does to retaliate. I believe Iran will try to keep the Straits hostage through at least the mid-terms. The US hostages in Iran were held for 444 days despite financial sanctions. They were released just hours into the inauguration of President Reagan in 1980. The “Gipper” (Knute Rockne, All American is a good nostalgic sports movie but I am a sucker for most of them) crushed the re-election attempt by President Carter by winning 489 electoral votes to 49 due to high inflation, interest rates and gas prices compounded with the foreign policy issues. On Wednesday after the market close, Nvidia reports results. Despite solid results, the stock has been down the next day in reaction for the past four quarters and declined from open to close the past eight quarters (and been down for the full day for six of them.) But trading at just a PE of 17x CY27 vs the S&P at 19x and with the stock down 4% over the past two weeks versus just a 1% decline in the S&P, I think the risk vs reward is good. However, the public (& therefore political) sentiment against datacenters continues to grow going into mid-terms which is likely to restrain multiple expansion. From a fundamental perspective for Nvidia, hyperscaler capex grew 92% y/y and 29% q/q in Q2 which is the fastest ever since launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. Public cloud revenue growth at the Big 3 vendors accelerated to the fastest pace ever at 43% y/y and 15% q/q in Q2 and arguably more importantly their operating margins expanded by 2% to a record 39% in aggregate. This compares to consensus estimates for Nvidia revenue growth decelerating to 13% q/q growth in Q2 from 20% or greater in each of the past 3 quarters. With regards to the AI infrastructure names, the roughly 50% decline in token costs driven by open-weight models since late May is being more than offset by the ~2.5x increase in token production during that time and increase in operating margins. But datacenters need to be put somewhere. When Gallup polling numbers for those opposing their construction locally are worse at 71% than for nuclear reactors at 53%, that is not good. Politicians want to keep their jobs also. On Friday at 10am, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at the central bankers meeting at Jackson Hole. The S&P declined 1.2% and 1.5% during his last two press conferences following FOMC meetings. The financial picture is even more complicated today: 1) the Iran situation looks likely to drag on for longer, 2) global bond yields are higher, 3) there is intervention in Japanese currency markets, and 4) the actions by the US Treasury to try and lower bond yields is putting downward pressure on the US dollar and upward pressure on inflation. In summary, despite strong S&P earnings growth, I am wary of further declines given the typical season drawdown of 10% from peak to trough during mid-term years since 1990 from 7/31-11/9. I gave more detailed stats last Sunday. Best of luck in the week ahead.

The Dodgers lose 2-1 on a walk-off. · Blake Snell allowed one run over five innings · Freddie Freeman drove in the lone Dodger run in 6th with a single · The Dodgers have scored 11 runs on this roadtrip (5 games; they are 1-4) · The Dodgers are 81-55

Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 were +1.2%/+1.7%/+4.0% despite oil +4% & bond ylds +7bps on Iran flare-up. 2 days remain during this seasonally favorable time from the last 3 trading days of June through first 9 days of July. Earning season starts w/ big banks on Tuesday. As I first posted about on June 28th and reiterated on July 5th, the seasonality is historically very favorable from the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July during which the S&P/Nasdaq have advanced 1.6%/2.5% and been up 78% of the time since 1985. The S&P/Nasdaq is up 3.0%/3.6% during the first 10 trading days of this time period in 2026 already. But for the heart of the AI trade, the Semiconductor (SOX) Index is down 7.0% during these last 10 trading days on fears of a “speed bump” that I have been posting about since 6/28. For the AI trade going forward, two separate thoughts with two different implications are beginning to coalesce in my mind. The first thought is that AI revenue growth for the leading LLM models is likely to hit a “speed bump” and slow in the September quarter. Last week, $SPCX and $META released new LLM models that both closed much of the gap with the leading edge models from OpenAI and Anthropic. But Meta plans to price their model at roughly 1/4th the cost of the two leaders with SpaceX aggressive as well. This is particularly relevant as companies switched from token maxing in March to token minimization in June. As an example, the CEO of Coinbase posted on June 26th, “How to keep AI spend flat while token usage grows exponentially... Putting this into practice has cut our AI spend nearly in half, while our token usage continues to grow.” Sam Altman on Thursday: “we have heard enterprises on their concerns about AI costs, and 5.6 sol is a huge step forward for dollars-per-task, as are terra and luna”. But on a positive note, two more public cloud providers have been recently added to the four that already existed of $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT and $ORCL. SpaceX in the past month raised over $100B in equity plus debt and plans to spend hundreds of billions to attack the $28.5 trillion TAM they talked about in their IPO prospectus. News surrounding Meta last week seems to imply that they are launching a cloud offering not because they have excess compute but so 1) they can double their compute spend from 7 MegaWatts in 2026 to 14 MegaWatts in 2027 and 2) have capacity to sell their Muse Spark LLM. So in summary, with this seasonally favorable period of time for the overall market coming soon to a close, I believe cutting back excess exposure is prudent. Reaction by investors on Tuesday to bank earnings which should be strong, may give us a good tell as to the risk vs reward at current levels over the shorter-term. As for the AI trade, I believe selectivity is key as we work our way through the “speed bump” and the positive implications of 4 aggressive public cloud vendors now becoming six versus the negatives of token maxing in March turning to token minimization in June. All the best in the week ahead.

🇬🇧 England vs Norway 🇳🇴 – All Historical Football Matches 1937: Norway 0-6 England 1938: England 4-0 Norway 1949: Norway 1-4 England 1966: Norway 1-6 England 1980: England 4-0 Norway 1981: Norway 2-1 England 1992: England 1-1 Norway 1993: Norway 2-0 England 1994: England 0-0 Norway 1995: Norway 0-0 England 2012: Norway 0-1 England 2014: England 1-0 Norway England wins: 7 Draws: 3 Norway wins: 2

Here are the largest holdings in the S&P 500 Nvidia $NVDA 8.4% Apple $AAPL 6.8% Microsoft $MSFT 4.8% Amazon $AMZN 4.2% Alphabet $GOOGL 3.6% Broadcom $AVGO 3.2% Alphabet $GOOG 2.9% Meta $META 2.1% Tesla $TSLA 2.0% Micron $MU 1.4% Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B 1.4%

Lunch today. Here's the recipe and instructions: Pesto Veggies with Black Lentils and Sweet Potato 1–2 servings
 Prep: 15 min
 Cook: 25–30 min Total : 40–45 min Ingredients Veggie pesto: * 1 packed cup fresh basil leaves * 2 tablespoons olive oil * 2 tablespoons pine nuts * 1 small garlic clove * 1 to 2 tablespoons water, as needed Vegetables: * 1 cup cauliflower florets * 1 cup broccoli florets * 1/4 cup sliced red onion * 1 small garlic clove, minced * 1 cup cherry tomatoes, halved * 1 medium zucchini, sliced * 1 tablespoon avocado oil or and high smoke point oil Lentils and sweet potato: * 1 cup cooked black lentils, cooked in vegetable broth * 1 small sweet potato, peeled if desired and cut into cubes * Water for steaming or boiling Finishing: * 2 oz sliced black Kalamata olives * 1 teaspoon truffle oil, optional * Microgreens for garnish, optional Instructions: 1. Make the pesto * Add basil, olive oil, pine nuts, garlic, and a small splash of water to a blender or food processor. * Blend until smooth or slightly textured, depending on preference. * If needed, add a little more water to help it blend. * Taste and adjust seasoning if using salt. 2. Cook the lentils * Rinse the black lentils if needed. * Cook 1 cup of black lentils in vegetable broth according to package directions until tender but not mushy. * Drain any excess liquid if necessary and set aside. 3. Steam the sweet potato * Place the cubed sweet potato in a steamer basket or small pot with a little water. * Steam until fork-tender, about 10 to 12 minutes. * Set aside. 4. Sauté the vegetables * Heat 1 tablespoon oil in a large skillet over medium heat. * Add the red onion and garlic first and cook for 1 to 2 minutes. * Add cauliflower and broccoli and cook for 4 to 5 minutes. * Add zucchini and cherry tomatoes and continue cooking for another 4 to 6 minutes, until the vegetables are tender but still vibrant. 5. Combine with pesto * Turn the heat to low. * Add the pesto to the vegetables and stir well to coat everything evenly. * If the mixture is too thick, add a small splash of water to loosen it. 6. Assemble the dish * Spoon the cooked black lentils onto plates or into bowls. * Add the steamed sweet potato. * Top with the pesto vegetables. * Add sliced Kalamata olives over the top. * Drizzle with truffle oil if using. * Finish with microgreens for garnish. Serving Suggestion * Serve warm as a main dish for 1 hearty serving or as 2 lighter servings. * This dish also works well with extra lemon juice on top if you want brightness. Health Benefits * Black lentils provide plant-based protein, fiber, iron, and slow-digesting carbohydrates that support fullness and steady energy. * Broccoli and cauliflower supply vitamin C, vitamin K, and glucosinolates, which support antioxidant and detoxification pathways. * Zucchini, tomatoes, red onion, and garlic add antioxidants and phytonutrients that support overall cellular health. * Sweet potato provides beta-carotene, potassium, and fiber, supporting immune and digestive health. * Basil, pine nuts, and olive oil contribute healthy fats and aromatic compounds that support satiety and flavor. * Kalamata olives add heart-healthy monounsaturated fats and a savory finish. * Microgreens add concentrated micronutrients and a fresh garnish.

LBank Card is now in your hands. 💳✨ The LBank Physical Card has officially launched, and applications are now available. Before you apply, make sure your LBank App is updated: 📱 iOS v6.1.2 or above 🤖 Android v8.1.4 or above Crypto is no longer just digital — now you can carry it with you wherever you go. 🔥 Apply here: