CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.

France Industrial Production (M/M) Jul: -0.4% (est 0.2%; prev 0.1%; prev R -0.1%) - Industrial Production (Y/Y): -0.5% (est 0.4%; prev -0.1%) - Manufacturing Production (M/M): -0.8% (est 0.4%; prev -1.1%; prev R -1.0%) - Manufacturing Production (Y/Y): -2.0% (prev -1.7%; prev R -1.5%)

SNB Sees 2026 Inflation At 0.7% (Prev 0.6%) Sees 2027 Inflation At 0.8% (Prev 0.6%) Sees 2028 Inflation At 0.8% (Prev 0.7%) Sees 2026 Swiss GDP Growth At 1.5-2% (Prev 1.0%) Sees 2027 Swiss GDP Growth At 1.5% (Prev 1.5%)

This map should worry everyone The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.1 births per woman, the level needed for a population to replace itself over generations Most of the developed world is now way below that line • US: around 1.5–1.6 births per woman • UK: around 1.5–1.6 • France: around 1.5–1.6 • China: around 1.0 • South Korea: around 0.8 Meanwhile, countries like Chad and Somalia are still around 5.9 births per woman This is one of the biggest demographic divides on Earth The richest, most industrialized, most technologically advanced countries are no longer having enough children to sustain their populations naturally That means aging societies, shrinking workforces, fewer young people, more pressure on pensions, healthcare, housing, taxation, and national productivity

World Currencies vs. the U.S. Dollar One-Year Change As of June 30, 2026: 🇨🇴 Colombian peso: +19.2% 🇮🇱 Israeli shekel: +13.2% 🇭🇺 Hungarian forint: +8.9% 🇿🇦 South African rand: +8.1% 🇲🇽 Mexican peso: +7.7% 🇨🇳 Chinese yuan: +5.6% 🇦🇺 Australian dollar: +5.2% 🇧🇷 Brazilian real: +5.2% 🇲🇾 Malaysian ringgit: +3.1% 🇳🇴 Norwegian krone: +1.8% 🇨🇱 Chilean peso: +1.0% 🇪🇬 Egyptian pound: +0.8% 🇭🇰 Hong Kong dollar: +0.1% 🇦🇪 UAE dirham: 0.0% 🇶🇦 Qatari riyal: 0.0% 🇸🇦 Saudi riyal: -0.2% 🇷🇺 Russian ruble: -0.4% 🇨🇿 Czech koruna: -1.1% 🇸🇬 Singapore dollar: -1.7% 🇨🇭 Swiss franc: -1.8% 🇹🇭 Thai baht: -2.3% 🇸🇪 Swedish krona: -2.4% 🇪🇺 Euro: -3.0% 🇩🇰 Danish krone: -3.1% 🇬🇧 Pound sterling: -3.4% 🇨🇦 Canadian dollar: -4.1% 🇵🇱 Polish złoty: -4.2% 🇳🇿 New Zealand dollar: -6.8% 🇹🇼 Taiwan dollar: -8.2% 🇵🇭 Philippine peso: -8.2% 🇮🇩 Indonesian rupiah: -9.3% 🇮🇳 Indian rupee: -9.4% 🇯🇵 Japanese yen: -11.3% 🇰🇷 South Korean won: -12.6% 🇹🇷 Turkish lira: -14.6% 🇦🇷 Argentine peso: -18.9% Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP.

Tesla is still dominating. In the first half of 2026, they secured over 52% of the U.S. EV market. 1. Tesla: 52.3% — 242,100 units sold 2. Chevrolet: 6.1% — 28,267 3. Hyundai: 5.8% — 26,936 4. Cadillac: 4.7% — 21,855 5. Rivian : 4.7% — 21,770 6. Toyota: 4.7% — 21,767 7. Ford: 3.6% — 16,606 8. Kia: 2.7% — 12,627 9. BMW: 2.4% — 10,790 10. Subaru: 2.2% — 10,064 11. Honda: 1.8% — 8,407 12. Lexus: 1.7% — 7,814 13. GMC: 1.4% — 6,645 14. Lucid: 1.1% — 5,208 15. Volvo: 0.9% — 3,964 16. VW: 0.8% — 3,768 17. Mercedes: 0.6% — 3,010 18. Porsche: 0.6% — 2,967 19. Other Brands: 0.6% — 2,596 20. Nissan: 0.4% — 1,774 21. Audi: 0.4% — 1,697 22. Genesis: 0.1% — 560 23. Dodge: 0.1% — 534 24. Jeep: 0.1% — 418 25. Mini: 0.1% — 307 26. Acura: 0.0% — 108 (Data Via Cox Automotive Q2 2026 EV sales)

BULLISH BITCOIN SIGNAL: Bitcoin just reclaimed the short-term holder cost basis, and the two cost bases are squeezed tighter than at any point since 2023. Price vs. STH realized price: +7.6% Price vs. LTH realized price: +55.2% STH cost basis ÷ LTH cost basis: 1.44× In February 2025 that ratio was 3.7×. The top buyers either capitulated or aged into the long-term cohort, and the new marginal buyer now pays only 44% more than the diamond hands. Since 2012, Bitcoin spent 1,333 days below 1.5×. It was higher one year later on 98% of them. Tighten the filter to today's exact setup, ratio at or below 1.5× with price above the STH cost basis, and you get 629 days with zero losers. Median 1-year return: +134%. Prior squeeze regimes, one year after entering the setup: June 2015: +178% March 2019: +53% January 2023: +159% The eerie twin is October 2023: ratio 1.50×, price +0.4% over the STH cost basis, +50% over the LTH cost basis. Bitcoin was $28K. 12 months later it was $63K. Is it bullish? Historically, yes, and strongly. 1-year win rates fall in a clean staircase as the ratio rises: 100% below 1.0×, 97% at 1.0–1.5×, then 84%, 70%, 50%, and 42% above 5×. The weakest signal day was May 27, 2019, bought 55% over the STH basis, and it returned only +0.8%. At +7.6% today, you're in the sweet spot. The chart plots the ratio history on the left, with green segments marking every signal day and the three prior regimes labeled. The right side shows the 1-year win rate for each ratio bucket, with today's bucket in orange:

MACY'S $M JUST REPORTED Q2 EARNINGS - Revenue: $4.9B, beating est. of $4.83B 🟢 - Adj EPS: $0.63 (incl. $0.23 tariff refunds) - Adj EPS ex-Refund: $0.40 - GAAP EPS: $0.62 (+100% YoY) (incl. refunds) - Adj EBITDA: $457M (incl. tariff refunds) - Comparable Sales: +2.7% - Go-Forward Business Comps: +2.8% - Macy's Comps: +1.1% Raises FY26 Guidance: - Revenue: $21.7B-$21.8B, below est. of $21.91B 🔴 - Adj EBITDA Margin: 7.8%-8.0% (from 7.7%-7.9%) - Adj EPS: $2.15-$2.35, in line with est. of $2.25 🟡 - Comparable Sales Change: 1.0% to 1.5% (from 0.5% to 1.2%)

MACY'S $M Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $4.9B (Est. $4.83B) 🟢; +1.1% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.63; incl. $0.23 tariff refunds 🔹 Adj. EPS ex-Refund: $0.40 (Est. $0.37) 🟢 🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.62; +100% YoY; incl. refunds 🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $457M; incl. tariff refunds Raises FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $21.7B-$21.8B (Est. $21.91B) 🔴; from $21.5B-$21.75B 🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 7.8%-8.0% (Est. 8.1%) 🔴; from 7.7%-7.9% 🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.15-$2.35 (Est. $2.25) 🟡; from $2.00-$2.20 🔹 Comparable Sales Change: 1.0% to 1.5%; from 0.5% to 1.2% Other Q2 Metrics: 🔹 Comparable Sales: +2.7% 🔹 Go-Forward Business Comps: +2.8% 🔹 Macy's Comps: +1.1% 🔹 Bloomingdale's Comps: +11.3% 🔹 Bluemercury Comps: +6.2% 🔹 Gross Margin: 41.5%; incl. 180 bps refunds Key Updates: 🔸 Tariff refunds: $98M of IEEPA refunds received in Q2 and $18M after quarter end ($116M total); the net benefit was $84M pre-tax, $0.23 per share after tax and 180 bps of gross margin — excluding it, adjusted EPS was $0.40, +14% YoY, and gross margin was up 10 bps; the FY26 guide reinvests the majority of the refunds, with ~$0.05 per share flowing through to adjusted EPS Comments: 🔸 “The investments we're making are driving results across our portfolio, from the continued outperformance of our Reimagine 200 Macy’s stores, to meaningful double-digit growth at Bloomingdale’s and another solid quarter at Bluemercury.”

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