It's officially Fed day. Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July 2023 today. In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994. However, it's a particularly unusual time right now. Fed Chair Warsh was appointed by President Trump just months ago with the expectation that he would CUT rates. Now, markets expect Warsh's first change to the Fed Funds Rate to be a hike. We expect a highly eventful day. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as the Fed decision is announced.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says 18 million barrels of crude and refined products passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, versus a 7-day average of about 11 million barrels per day. Wright also said U.S. escorts will cover refined products, not just crude.

Good morning, say it with me "Nobody is watching me trade. No one sees whether I follow my rules or break them. The process lives or dies in private. And that's exactly why it matters. Discipline without an audience is the one that counts the most."