"Despite $1.5tn spent in past 3 years, scant evidence yet of economy-wide productivity gains; in fact, total factor productivity is falling below trend, a measure highly correlated the past 50 years with consumer confidence; sometimes Main St knows what Wall St doesn’t" - BofA, Michael Hartnett

So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now. From optical earnings: 1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers. - Had ability to price up ASP for lasers. - Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise. Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers. 2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand. - Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition. - Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers. - Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster. AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players. 3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity. - $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers. - $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false). Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector. 4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers. Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand . Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T): It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE. Feels like my thesis with both: - The CW bottleneck that I predicted - CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1) Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.

Fascinated by Lime going public - in an age where AI gets all the attention, how does a scooter company with $1B in debt pull off a successful IPO literally after expressing "substantial doubt" that they might not even survive the year? * Impressive financial engineering - the IPO paid off the toxic loans and converted the rest to equity, so the slate is clean * Uber owns 22% of Lime and refers riders directly to Lime, so obviously a great backstop and partner * They've actually been FCF positive for 3 consecutive years with revenue growing nearly 30% YoY * Something about being the last man standing and surviging the micromobility bloodbath (RIP Bird). Never give up!

More than half of the games currently in Steam Early Access have gone over a year without an update. A new analysis of Steam data looked at 12,320 Early Access games as of September 26, 2026. > 56.7%, 6,989 games, had no new build, patch notes, or update announcement for at least one year. >87% of games that had been in Early Access for more than 5 years had gone over a year without an update. >87% of the games that left Early Access between 2020 and 2025 reached full release within 3 years. >Games with 1,000+ reviews had a 78.8% chance of reaching full release. >Games with fewer than 10 reviews had only a 30.8% chance of reaching full release.

🎉 Celebrating 3 years of RedotPay with the community that got us here. Invite friends to earn weekly rewards and compete for a top-30 leaderboard reward*, with up to $2,160 up for grabs in total! ⏰ Ends November 1. Terms apply. 👉 Head to the app and start inviting. *Only for eligible participants

Elon Musk shared three thoughts on the future of AI and compute. 🤖 • SpaceX plans to keep accelerating its AI efforts, which Musk says are only 3 years old compared with 6 years for Anthropic and 10 years for OpenAI. He says SpaceX could reach the top position in about 6 months if its “second derivative” remains strong. • Once intelligence far exceeds what a task requires, more intelligence becomes pointless. As Musk put it, you don’t need Newton-level intelligence in a toaster. • Hardware is hard. Bringing massive amounts of compute online quickly is incredibly difficult, and Musk says SpaceX has demonstrated exceptional ability in this area.

📄 @base Daily Recap What happened on @base last 24 hrs NEWS ■ @base launched the Builder Grant Program offering up to $5,000 in seed capital for ecosystem teams ■ @base celebrated 3 years of growth with $5B TVL and $46T in total stablecoin volume ■ @base head Jesse Pollak highlighted the network focus on supporting long term builders STATS ■ @gitlawb reached one million impressions on Gitlawb Ads and rewarded active users, ■ @SebVentures reported the largest SteakhouseFi vault crossed $600 million in total deposits ECOSYSTEM ■ @RatehopperAI locked in on building autonomous agents to simplify complex DeFi strategies ■ @Vanarchain confirmed BingX will automatically process the 1:1 VANRY token migration to Base LAUNCHES ■ @OpenGradient deployed Seedance 2.5 in Video Studio with 30 second AI generation and synced audio ■ @gitlawb released Zero v0.7.0 featuring safer permissions and improved tool flexibility