AI stocks are massively outperforming the global market:
The Bloomberg Global AI index has surged +118% since the start of 2024, to near its all-time high.
At the same time, the MSCI World Index has risen +57%, underperforming by 61 percentage points.
By comparison, the MSCI Emerging Market Index has soared +70% over this period, to near its all-time high.
Since the start of 2024, AI stocks have generated an average annualized return of +38%, double the +19% annualized return of global equities over the same period.
The AI index has also significantly outperformed emerging markets, which have delivered an annualized return of +23%.
AI stocks have left the rest of the global market far behind.
AI stocks fell after leading CEOs called for development to be slowed down and OpenAI said it is no longer planning an IPO this year. Rootbridge Capital's Alpesh Patel says this will boost OpenAI's eventual valuation
AI STOCKS FACE PRESSURE AS TECH LEADERS CALL FOR SLOWDOWN
AI-linked stocks could face near-term selling pressure after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slowing development of the most advanced AI models, with OpenAI’s Sam Altman and xAI’s Elon Musk backing the proposal.
Investors say the longer-term AI trade remains intact, as demand for chips, power and computing infrastructure continues to outstrip supply, while slower model development could give companies more time to monetize existing investments.
AI trade rd 2 with market structure breaks in $MU $SNDK and $BE
Crypto in a vulnerable place too as BTC is under the 50W MA
Be mentally prepared if AI stocks begin to suck liq out of crypto
(Not saying this is happening yet but it's worth monitoring)
AI stocks are increasingly moving in the opposite direction of the rest of the market:
The 40-day correlation between the US Broad AI Index and the S&P 500 ex-AI Index is down to -0.60, the lowest on record.
The correlation has now been negative since late-June, marking only the 2nd negative reading on record after July 2024.
This also marks a sharp reversal from the +0.65 positive correlation seen in mid-May.
In other words, AI stocks are increasingly diverging from the broader market, suggesting capital is rotating between AI and non-AI stocks.
This comes after the US AI Index surged +160% since April 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 ex-AI Index, which gained ~35%.
The AI trade is becoming increasingly independent of the broader market.