If you've been trading for any amount of time, you're probably already aware of the concept of volatility and the impact it can have on the broader market. However, a concept that traders of all levels often miss is volatility supply.
Volatility has a supply and demand curve, just like any other product, and it can be created or destroyed through a number of different means.
Here's @jam_croissant giving a great explanation of vol supply in response to a (very eloquent) YouTube comment asking about it!
#StockMarket# #Volatility# #Investing# #Finance# #OptionsTrading#
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"This is the new normal, prepare yourself,"
@jam_croissant stopped by Overtime with @IlyaSpivak and @CVecchioFX
Cem call: next year, into a decline, a sovereign wealth fund in the trillions and QE at the long end of the curve.
His evidence that it's already started: the yen intervention, the doubling of Treasury buybacks, and equity stakes in Intel and MP with both at all-time highs.
#tastycrumbs# 🍒🥐👇
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New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has expressed a great deal of hawkish sentiment, but is it real? @jam_croissant doesn't think so.
Have a listen to Cem's reasoning that this fiscal conservatism is a facade, and let us know if you agree in the comments!
#FederalReserve# #Economics# #KevinWarsh# #Finance# #StockMarket#
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Everyone left Jackson Hole convinced Warsh is about to hike. Cem Karsan @jam_croissant is calling the opposite right here.
His read is that the hawkish talk was never about policy, it was a defense of the dollar. Bessent said the quiet part out loud yesterday: you do not raise rates into a supply shock.
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Nvidia beat by about 6%. The options market had priced a 5.4% move.
The initial reaction was contained.
Cem Karsan's base case going in: vol compresses, call skew decays, and dealers short those calls sell the stock they held against them. It was never about the number.
@jam_croissant and @CVecchioFX react 👇🥐🍒
$NVDA #options#
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When can a calendar spread make sense?
A viewer asked @jam_croissant how he’d think about setting one up in the current market environment. Cem Karsan breaks down his approach and what he’d be watching.
#StockMarket# #TradeIdea# #Finance# #Investing# #OptionsTrading#
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Nvidia beat expectations on every earnings report for the last several years.
The stock still tended to finish that week down 2 to 5%.
@jam_croissant says that's positioning, not fundamentals.
Everyone is long calls, dealers are short them and long stock, and the charm flows do the rest.
$NVDA #options# #trading# 🍒🥐👇
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Three million 0 DTE contracts traded in $SPX every single day. That is 62% of all daily volume in the most liquid options market on the planet.
It started with indexes. Now Tesla, Nvidia, Apple and Amazon all have Monday and Wednesday expirations and traders piled in immediately. The way people use options has completely changed.
@CVecchioFX and @Cboe VP Henry Schwartz on what comes next:
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