Happy weekend, Just sold all my altcoins at this price. I don’t think Q4 is set up for a straight-line crypto rally. The Fed just hiked rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, while inflation is picking up again. August CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, with higher energy prices contributing to the pressure. For me, the near-term transmission still looks like this: Inflation ↑ → Treasury yields ↑ → Fed stays hawkish → USD/liquidity gets tighter → risk assets stay under pressure Crypto can eventually benefit from the long-term “debasement” thesis, but that doesn’t mean the market has to price it in immediately. And when I look outside crypto, the setup makes me even more cautious: – S&P 500 is still trading close to record-high territory. US equities have stayed surprisingly strong despite higher yields, oil and geopolitical risk. I still think this market needs some kind of reset before another sustainable risk-on leg. – US debt is approaching the $40T area. Treasury data already showed total public debt above $39.28T in June 2026, after rising from roughly $35.5T at the end of FY2024. That means the fiscal pressure isn’t exactly going away. – Oil is back above $100. Brent is around $104 and WTI around $101, while the broader Middle East conflict is still creating supply risk. Higher energy costs are already feeding back into inflation and yields. – US political risk is increasing into the midterms. I wouldn’t treat control of Congress as a done deal, but the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll had Democrats ahead 44% vs 37% on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump’s approval was around 35%. That adds another layer of uncertainty into November. So when I put all the data together, I don’t see a clean environment for BTC and alts to immediately enter a huge Q4 expansion. My base sequence is still: Stocks ↓ → $BTC ↓ → alts ↓↓ → Fed/liquidity response → BTC recovers first → $ETH/large caps → smaller alts The important part is the liquidity response. If stocks finally correct and financial conditions tighten enough, the next big crypto opportunity may come after the market forces policymakers to become less hawkish, not before. So personally, I’m not chasing the idea of a guaranteed Q4 altseason here. I’d rather stay patient, keep liquidity ready, and watch Treasury yields, oil, Fed policy, BTC dominance and ETH/BTC. If those start turning together, then I’ll be much more interested in taking risk. Just my personal market view, not financial advice.

China’s AI companies are building a multibillion dollar revenue machines. The chart estimates that annual recurring revenue across major Chinese AI companies rose from approximately $4 billion in December 2025 to $13 billion by August 2026. That represents more than a threefold increase in less than one year. ByteDance appears to be the largest contributor at approximately $4 billion, while Tencent, Alibaba, and Zhipu are each estimated at roughly $2 billion. DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Kimi are also generating additional revenue as Chinese companies commercialize their AI models through cloud services, subscriptions, advertising, enterprise software, and application programming interfaces. The important point is that these companies are moving beyond model development and beginning to generate recurring revenue from real customers. When AI usage continues expanding across search, advertising, coding, customer service, and business automation, these revenue streams could grow rapidly. The strongest companies will eventually benefit from operating leverage because the cost of serving additional customers can decline as their models, infrastructure and distribution networks scale. ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba may have an advantage because they already control large user bases, advertising platforms, cloud businesses, and enterprise relationships. Zhipu, DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Kimi could benefit if their models gain market share among Chinese developers, businesses, and consumers. Now here is how you can invest in all of these. Alibaba provides exposure to cloud computing and its own AI ecosystem. Tencent offers exposure to AI through cloud services, advertising, gaming, enterprise software, and its large consumer platform. Baidu is another option because it has invested heavily in AI models, cloud infrastructure, and autonomous technologies. You can also look at Chinese technology ETFs, which may provide broader exposure to companies benefiting from the country’s AI expansion. The chart uses estimates and annualized revenue run rates, so the figures should not be treated as audited revenue but the trend is clear Chinese AI companies are scaling both usage and monetization. If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to follow @MelvinInvests as I continue breaking down the biggest AI opportunities in both the US and China.

If you missed the Semi event live stream, here are my thoughts. 1. Nicely presented. I do think Tesla believes we want our production reveals or intros to be short. I bet they could have had some testimonials from truckers or more technical descriptions to make it at least 60 minutes. 2. Great to see all those huge brands. But I would have liked to have heard a backlog number. They have done that on other products. 3. 98% uptime is an enormous benefit. 4. 250,000 miles between oil changes. 5. Fully sealed coolant system. 6. Brand new motor based on plaid design, but lighter, more reliable. This truck is going to sell like hotcakes.

How do you benefit from tokenization? There are two ways to think about it. 1. Invest in the companies building it Back the companies building the infrastructure, platforms, exchanges, custody, issuance, distribution and everything else needed to bring trillions of dollars of assets onchain. If tokenization grows, these companies are positioned to capture part of that market. 2. Invest in the assets themselves Tokenization can give you access to assets that were previously difficult or impossible for you to access. Whether it be Private credit, funds, real estate, bonds, equities, commodities and more. So you can invest in the companies building the rails or use those rails to access the assets moving onto them. And eventually, it could be both.

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$ALNY -5% this morning Sellside comments re: the 1.14 event rate ratio from the stabilizer (combo) arm of the CARDIO-TTRansform study: Paul Matteis, Stifel "While minimal benefit was largely expected for the eplontersen/tafamidis combo arm in CARDIO-TTRansform, it's an incremental surprise to see that the combination had a hazard ratio of 1.14--clearly worse than expected." Michael Leuchten, Jefferies: "The presentation showed a treatment effect of rate ratio (RR) 1.14 for the baseline stabiliser group vs overall RR of 0.89, with a strong enough interaction p-value (0.017) suggesting a potential differential treatment effect between patients without stabiliser at baseline. The primary endpoint curves in patients that were on stabilisers at baseline do not show an improvement over time, if anything there is a worsening rate in the combination group." Cory Kasimov, Evercore: "...the 1.14 RR in pts on baseline stabilizers was the key metric investors cared about most coming in and will likely not be viewed favorably as it relates to implications for ALNY. At first glance, the results appear less suggestive of a trial-design issue and more consistent with a potential limitation to the incremental benefit of dual therapy with silencers and stabilizers, further entrenching the competitive positioning of the stabilizer class."

Tesla is hosting an "End of Summer Fun" event in Richmond, BC tomorrow for a good cause 🇨🇦 "Join us for our End of Summer Celebration on Sunday, August 23, 2026, from 11 AM to 2 PM at Tesla Richmond. Bring your kids to explore our showroom and play our vehicle questionnaire game for a chance to bring home a gift from Tesla. We'll also be accepting donations of unused school supplies to benefit students of our local school district." RSVP >>

Having an external locus of control—believing that you are shaped by luck and fate rather than influencing events—can hold individuals back. Register for free to read why children and companies might benefit from developing an internal locus

ZERO ALPHA Research Preview | Reframing NVDA NVIDIA’s latest earnings report is the trigger event for a new round of deep research. A company already among the largest in the world just delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth, with Data Center revenue up 117%. What is striking is not simply that NVIDIA beat expectations again, but that its core business has returned to a doubling growth rate from an already enormous base, even as AMD GPUs, hyperscaler-designed chips, and custom AI accelerators continue to enter the market. That prompted us to go back and re-examine NVIDIA’s full growth trajectory since 2023. When revenue growth, earnings growth, stock-price appreciation, and P/E are viewed together, a very different pattern begins to emerge. The first NVIDIA spring was largely top-down. The market recognized the potential of generative AI first, the stock price moved ahead, and earnings later caught up. The second spring now looks increasingly bottom-up. Revenue growth re-accelerated from: 56% → 62% → 73% → 85% → 106% while valuation multiples moved lower rather than higher. In simple terms: First Spring: P led E. Second Spring: E is beginning to lead P. This earnings report therefore may represent more than another earnings beat. It may be a signal that NVDA itself needs to be reframed. It also raises a broader question: What actually defines a true mega-cap growth stock? A high P/E alone does not define growth. The rarest structure may be a company that is already enormous, still grows its core business near 100%, generates earnings faster than its stock price rises, avoids excessive valuation expansion, and continues to create new TAM. Applying this framework to AMD, MU, SNDK, LITE, ALAB, DELL, and the hyperscalers makes the leadership hierarchy increasingly clear. Many of them have strong growth, but each still carries a weakness in valuation, cyclicality, pricing dependence, platform control, or growth durability. NVDA currently presents a more unusual combination. More importantly, at least four additional growth engines are still developing: Pricing Power Supply Efficiency Open Models Inference Specialization If these continue to develop, today’s NVIDIA may not yet represent the peak of this second growth cycle. And NVIDIA’s second spring may not belong to NVIDIA alone. Memory and storage, optical networking, and AI data-center operators could all benefit if another AI infrastructure expansion cycle is now beginning. ZERO ALPHA will therefore use this earnings report — a mega-cap company returning to 100%+ core growth — as the starting point for a six-part NVDA Research Note series: 1/6. NVDA: The Second Spring — From P Leading E to E Leading P 2/6. NVDA: What Defines a True Mega-Cap Growth Stock? 3/6. NVDA: Why It Is Still in Its Prime, Not Near the Peak 4/6. NVDA: Four New Growth Engines — How Far Can the Second Spring Go? 5/6. NVDA: Why Leaders Lose Leadership — Lessons from Intel, Tesla, and AMD 6/6. NVDA: Will the Second Spring Reignite the Entire AI Infrastructure Chain? Each note will focus on one independent question and can be read on its own. ZERO Insight The most important message from this earnings report may not be that NVIDIA beat expectations again. It may be this: When a company already this large returns to 100%+ core growth while trading at a much lower P/E than during its first AI explosion, what needs to be revalued may not be just NVDA’s stock price — but our entire understanding of mega-cap growth.

BREAKING: Declassified Records Reveal Alleged Tampering With Confidential Source Info to Blunt Ukraine Corruption Claims, Benefit Bidens Declassified "Delta Project" by DNI @TulsiGabbard's team found: - @FBI's Foreign Influence Task Force unofficially formed a group of analysts who gathered "any/all derogatory information" about Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, Burisma as well as the so-called "Ukraine Narrative" - Analysts "red flagged" negative reporting, had "administrative access" to files and deemed "Russian disinformation" - "Round River" Team operated leading up to and through the 2020 US Presidential Election - Some long standing confidential sources eventually "terminated" after reporting negative intel about Ukraine/Bidens - 'Round River' did not 'corroborate any of the (actual) allegations of the 'Ukraine Narrative'