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ZERO
@NYP000
Joined September 2017
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ZERO ALPHA Research Preview | Reframing NVDA NVIDIA’s latest earnings report is the trigger event for a new round of deep research. A company already among the largest in the world just delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth, with Data Center revenue up 117%. What is striking is not simply that NVIDIA beat expectations again, but that its core business has returned to a doubling growth rate from an already enormous base, even as AMD GPUs, hyperscaler-designed chips, and custom AI accelerators continue to enter the market. That prompted us to go back and re-examine NVIDIA’s full growth trajectory since 2023. When revenue growth, earnings growth, stock-price appreciation, and P/E are viewed together, a very different pattern begins to emerge. The first NVIDIA spring was largely top-down. The market recognized the potential of generative AI first, the stock price moved ahead, and earnings later caught up. The second spring now looks increasingly bottom-up. Revenue growth re-accelerated from: 56% → 62% → 73% → 85% → 106% while valuation multiples moved lower rather than higher. In simple terms: First Spring: P led E. Second Spring: E is beginning to lead P. This earnings report therefore may represent more than another earnings beat. It may be a signal that NVDA itself needs to be reframed. It also raises a broader question: What actually defines a true mega-cap growth stock? A high P/E alone does not define growth. The rarest structure may be a company that is already enormous, still grows its core business near 100%, generates earnings faster than its stock price rises, avoids excessive valuation expansion, and continues to create new TAM. Applying this framework to AMD, MU, SNDK, LITE, ALAB, DELL, and the hyperscalers makes the leadership hierarchy increasingly clear. Many of them have strong growth, but each still carries a weakness in valuation, cyclicality, pricing dependence, platform control, or growth durability. NVDA currently presents a more unusual combination. More importantly, at least four additional growth engines are still developing: Pricing Power Supply Efficiency Open Models Inference Specialization If these continue to develop, today’s NVIDIA may not yet represent the peak of this second growth cycle. And NVIDIA’s second spring may not belong to NVIDIA alone. Memory and storage, optical networking, and AI data-center operators could all benefit if another AI infrastructure expansion cycle is now beginning. ZERO ALPHA will therefore use this earnings report — a mega-cap company returning to 100%+ core growth — as the starting point for a six-part NVDA Research Note series: 1/6. NVDA: The Second Spring — From P Leading E to E Leading P 2/6. NVDA: What Defines a True Mega-Cap Growth Stock? 3/6. NVDA: Why It Is Still in Its Prime, Not Near the Peak 4/6. NVDA: Four New Growth Engines — How Far Can the Second Spring Go? 5/6. NVDA: Why Leaders Lose Leadership — Lessons from Intel, Tesla, and AMD 6/6. NVDA: Will the Second Spring Reignite the Entire AI Infrastructure Chain? Each note will focus on one independent question and can be read on its own. ZERO Insight The most important message from this earnings report may not be that NVIDIA beat expectations again. It may be this: When a company already this large returns to 100%+ core growth while trading at a much lower P/E than during its first AI explosion, what needs to be revalued may not be just NVDA’s stock price — but our entire understanding of mega-cap growth.
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