Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

BREAKING: The man who saw 2008 coming just placed his biggest bet against the AI boom, and the strangest name on his list is not a tech company at all. It is a bulldozer maker. Dr. Michael J. Burry shorted Nvidia, Applied Materials, Tesla, and the whole chip index this week. But the one he led with, the one he said jumped out at him, was Caterpillar, a 100-year-old maker of construction equipment. Why would the most famous bubble-caller alive make a heavy-machinery company his headline AI short? Because that is the whole tell. Caterpillar hit an all-time high this year, up 86 percent, its valuation richer than at any point in three decades. And look at the twist that makes the bet so sharp .. the re-rating is not pure fantasy. Caterpillar's order backlog is up 79 percent, because new chip factories and data centers need its generators, turbines, and earth-movers before a single server switches on. The market noticed, and repriced a machinery company as an AI stock. In Dr. Burry's words: “I have never shorted Caterpillar. It has always done great for me on the long side.” His trigger was South Korea. Burry named it directly: hundreds of billions in new chip-fab spending announced this week, the pledge that sent Caterpillar to its record. His verdict: “I see that as the beginning of the end.” Read and understand carefully what that means. Dr. Burry is not shorting artificial intelligence. Nope! He is shorting the moment the mania grew so vast it priced a maker of earth-movers like a designer of chips, betting that even real, booming orders have been valued as if they last forever. When the bubble reaches the machines that dig the holes the servers sit in, that is the line he chose to stand on. And the timing is also not quite subtle. He placed the bet at all-time highs, on the very day the chip index logged its greatest half-year run since the year 2000, the year he keeps naming. Will Burry prove himself right this time?

$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE (Bloomberg) -- Massachusetts lawmakers are seeking to establish the nation’s most stringent state-level safeguards for artificial intelligence, a proposal that’s divided an industry the governor’s office is concurrently seeking to woo. An economic development bill passed by the state Senate last month included a requirement that leading AI labs undergo independent reviews of the catastrophic risks posed by their frontier models at least once every 120 days, a first for a US state. The findings would be made public, though the state couldn’t use them to halt AI development. The provisions go further than other recent laws in California, New York and Illinois and come as Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey and other leaders seek to build up the region’s AI sector and curb the outflow of startup talent. Healey, a Democrat running for reelection in November, didn’t include the AI safeguards passed by the Senate in her initial economic development proposal. Both she and House lawmakers still must agree to the provision. Leading AI developer Anthropic PBC has advocated for states to adopt more stringent AI regulation in the absence of a federal standard and calls the Massachusetts proposal “the clearest and strongest AI legislation in the country.” OpenAI, on the other hand, is warning that the reviews will slow the release of cybersecurity models that might protect against the very risks lawmakers fear and prefers states adopt a uniform standard in line with the Illinois law. Inconsistency “doesn’t mean safer. It just means confusion,” said Donnie Fowler, OpenAI’s head of US state policy and partnerships. While Illinois now requires a third-party audit, it’s only once a year and geared toward ensuring labs are following their own safety guidelines and making disclosures mandated under the law. The Massachusetts proposal includes a similar annual compliance review, but separately empowers outside organizations to make evaluations of a model’s dangers, independent of the developer’s guidelines, every few months. The evaluators would assess the potential for catastrophes that kill or seriously injure at least 50 people or lead to $1 billion or more in property damage. Fowler likens Illinois’ audits to an annual car inspection, the equivalent of making sure the brake lights and windshield wipers are working. Massachusetts’ more frequent evaluations would be akin to dismantling the engine and then putting it back together again, he said. Anthropic believes the more intensive third-party evaluations are needed because “we ultimately don’t think the industry should grade its own homework,” said Cesar Fernandez, the company’s head of US state and local government relations. While Anthropic endorses the Massachusetts proposal, states may need to adopt even tighter oversight in the future as the technology advances, he said. Anthropic and OpenAI are jostling to shape the final legislation. Anthropic hired Boston lobbying firm Tremont Strategies Group earlier this year, while OpenAI brought on local firm Benchmark Strategies as its lobbyist in recent weeks. The broader bill is likely to pass before the November election because it also contains funding for projects in lawmakers’ districts. A six-member group of House and Senate negotiators are working to iron out the details, including the AI rules. State Senator Barry Finegold, one of the negotiators, said independent evaluations are needed to ensure frontier models won’t cause significant harm. If Massachusetts adopts the safeguards, other states will follow, he said. “We were behind on social media. We allowed too much to go by without putting in guardrails, and now we’re playing catch-up. We don’t want to do that again,” Finegold said. AI safety has taken on more urgency in the past month after OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta Platforms Inc. each reported instances in which their models inadvertently hacked into third-party systems in testing environments. Federal oversight is limited: President Donald Trump has taken a largely hands-off approach and bipartisan AI safety legislation that would preempt state laws is stalled in Congress. States are starting to fill the gap. At the same time, they’re also competing with each other for a piece of the AI boom that’s driving an outsize portion of the country’s current economic growth. In February, Massachusetts announced a partnership with OpenAI and became the first state to give its entire executive branch access to a ChatGPT-powered AI assistant. Announcing the collaboration, Healey said it would make the government “faster, more efficient, and more effective.” Early this spring, Healey and her economic development secretary, former venture capital executive Eric Paley, spoke with Anthropic President Daniela Amodei about the company potentially growing its Massachusetts presence and partnering with the state in areas like cybersecurity and workforce development, according to emails obtained through a public records request. Fernandez, the Anthropic government relations executive, invited Healey and Paley to its San Francisco headquarters, in part to discuss “responsible governance frameworks that serve as a national model.” In a follow-up message, Paley suggested other partnerships to explore, including on biotechnology and AI literacy in schools. He told Fernandez that “we all need to share more clear examples of how AI is enhancing humanity and offer positive inspiration to combat all of the fear mongering.” Paley offered to reach out to a state legislator about collaborating on AI oversight. The Healey administration will work with lawmakers on finalizing the legislation this fall, with a goal of setting “appropriate safeguards on AI development while continuing to support our innovation economy, jobs and competitiveness,” a spokesperson for the state’s economic development arm said. The topic is likely to feature in the upcoming governor’s race. Michael Minogue, a former medical device executive who’s the leading contender for the Republican nomination, dismissed the proposed third-party evaluations as overregulation. “How would a non-expert advise an expert building something every 120 days?” Minogue said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Boston office last week. “If you’re an AI company, I’m not coming here now.” Under the Massachusetts proposal, evaluators would have the ability to interrogate AI labs and obtain access to “all materials reasonably necessary” to assess catastrophic risks. The attorney general would create standards for outside organizations to serve as evaluators. The bill allocates no government funding for this task, instead allowing developers to pay evaluators. Only AI labs with annual gross revenues over $500 million would be subject to the evaluations. Like the California, New York and Illinois laws, the Massachusetts measure would also establish whistleblower protections for AI-lab employees and require developers to disclose safety practices and report safety incidents. Should an AI developer fail to report an incident or adhere to its own safety plan, the attorney general could pursue a fine of as much as $1 million for an initial violation and as much as $3 million for additional ones. The proposed safeguards strike the right balance by keeping officials and the public in the know about risks without compromising the AI industry’s long-term success, said Ben Snyder, a policy adviser at Encode, an advocate for AI safety limits. “The risk assessments are really essential to helping governments keep up and have real conversations with companies,” he said.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Tesla $TSLA launched steering-wheel-free Cybercab rides in Austin, marking the first public deployment of its purpose-built autonomous vehicle. Customers can now book Cybercab rides through Tesla’s Robotaxi app, with Tesla having registered 45 Cybercabs in Texas, bringing its state robotaxi fleet to 420 vehicles. The two-seat Cybercab has no steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors, relying on cameras and neural networks instead of lidar or radar, while also featuring in-car entertainment and integrated Starlink V5. Cybercab is not yet available for sale, but Tesla has opened a form for potential fleet buyers. Federal safety rules still prevent commercial sales, and Tesla has not yet filed for an NHTSA exemption. 2. Fed Governor Chris Waller said he would support keeping rates at 3.50%–3.75% this month if upcoming inflation data continues to show progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. Waller said recent data suggest the economy is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” and that if the improvement continues in data due over the next 2 weeks, he would be inclined to hold rates steady. However, he warned that if August inflation data show the improvement was fleeting, “it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate.” He also noted that uncertainty remains around military conflicts, trade policy, and AI’s impact on prices and economic activity. 3. Nvidia $NVDA has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93B, giving it one of the largest open AI developer platforms in the world. Hugging Face says it now serves more than 18M developers, researchers, and creators, with over 3M models, 500K datasets, 1M applications, and 200K+ companies on the platform. Nvidia says Hugging Face will remain open to models and hardware across the ecosystem, with no requirement for developers to use Nvidia compute and continued support for multi-cloud and multi-accelerator deployment. Nvidia also plans to use its infrastructure and engineering resources to expand Hugging Face’s model evaluation, inference, deployment, safety, and platform reliability. 4. Morgan Stanley says Broadcom $AVGO delivered a quarter and outlook that were slightly better than prior guidance, while its 2027 AI revenue commentary of $115B came in slightly below the firm’s $120B estimate but still in line with management’s prior view for “well above $100B.” The bigger takeaway is that management said AI revenue should “double again” in 2028, with customer breadth improving and two AI labs expected to become Broadcom’s two largest customers by CY28. Morgan Stanley says it continues to haircut CY28 because semiconductor visibility rarely extends that far, but its numbers still move up considerably. The firm sees some near-term uncertainty from elevated CY27 AI expectations, but believes market-share expectations remain too low, with industry contacts supporting the view that Broadcom can drive 80%+ share of its serviceable markets over time. Morgan Stanley says valuation remains compelling, growth remains very robust, and $AVGO, along with $NVDA, continues to look like one of the most attractively valued AI names. 5. Meta $META CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly told President Trump in a private August call that he opposed a proposal to create a national AI regulator, according to Business Insider. The White House is considering a FINRA-style body that could review and test advanced AI models for risks before broader deployment, an idea originally proposed by Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis. Zuckerberg has argued that delaying model releases, even by a month, could hurt U.S. leadership against China. The White House is reportedly weighing two paths: a formal FINRA-style AI regulator, or a more voluntary industry-led standards group similar to the Motion Picture Association, an approach backed by David Sacks. The proposal remains under consideration. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.5M contracts, $TSLA with 2.7M contracts, $SPCX with 1.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $AVGO with 1.0M contracts, $MSTR with 925K contracts, $MU with 806K contracts, $PCG with 720K contracts, $PLTR with 717K contracts, and $HOOD with 682K contracts. 7. OpenAI has started rolling out GPT-6 Astra, its new flagship model, calling it a “generational leap” in AI capability. President Greg Brockman went further, saying people may eventually look back at “about this time and about this model” as when AGI arrived, ending the briefing with: “Welcome to the AGI era.” Astra was trained on more than 100,000 GPUs at OpenAI’s Stargate site in Texas and is designed to work directly inside software, including creating spreadsheets and presentations, building 3D environments, designing circuit boards, handling financial modeling, and drafting tax forms. OpenAI says Astra leads across software engineering, science, reasoning, computer use, and cybersecurity, but the model also reached OpenAI’s “Critical” cybersecurity threshold, meaning its strongest cyber capabilities will initially be restricted to trusted organizations through Daybreak Access. 8. Lululemon $LULU reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.4B, below estimates of $2.46B and down 4% YoY, while comparable sales fell 9%. EPS came in at $2.92, including a $0.86 tariff-refund benefit, with gross margin up 200 bps YoY to 60.5%. The company cut FY26 guidance to $10.35B–$10.5B in revenue versus $11.04B expected and EPS of $9.48–$9.73 versus $10.88 expected. Q3 guidance was also weak, with revenue expected at $2.29B–$2.32B versus $2.53B expected and EPS of $0.93–$0.98 versus $2.40 expected. Management said it is taking a “prudent approach” with the revised full-year outlook, while Michael Burry said: “Today, lululemon (LULU) is the trickster in my portfolio. This time the trickster is my largest position, and it does seem determined to take me where mermaids fear to tread.” 9. Robinhood $HOOD had its best day in over a year, rising 15% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade and renewed attention around Robinhood Chain. Part of the move may have come after Ansem, one of crypto’s most influential voices, posted his Robinhood thesis to 1.3M followers, highlighting the company’s growing onchain opportunity. Since launching July 1, Robinhood Chain has generated $34.6B in cumulative DEX volume, 576M transactions, and 12.3M addresses, with daily DEX volume recently hitting a record $1.5B and users paying $3.75M in fees on September 1. More than 190 tokenized stocks are now live, producing over $3B in cumulative DEX volume, while RWA daily volume reached a record $390M, including $217M from memecoin/tokenized-stock pairs. Robinhood’s onchain ecosystem has also grown to more than $750M in TVL while generating billions in perpetual-futures volume. The market appears to be waking up to the idea that Robinhood Chain may not be fully priced in, with the potential to become a new 9-figure revenue stream — and possibly much larger if growth continues. 10. Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines is reportedly in talks to raise more than $1B at a roughly $40B valuation, according to The Information. Accel is in talks to lead the round, while Nvidia $NVDA is also considering participating. The raise follows the July launch of Thinking Machines’ first model, Inkling, and the company is already generating hundreds of millions in annualized revenue despite being less than 2 years old. The proposed valuation is below the $50B+ level the company sought late last year, when it discussed raising $4B–$5B. 11. U.S. diesel refining margins have surged to a record $106/barrel, topping $100 for the first time and surpassing the roughly $85/barrel peak seen during the 2022 energy crisis. The diesel crack spread has more than tripled since February, signaling extremely tight diesel supplies and much stronger potential profits for refiners. The spike reflects a severe shortage of global diesel supply amid the Iran War, with U.S. diesel inventories down to 103.4M barrels, the lowest on record for this time of year. Retail diesel prices have also climbed to $5.78/gallon, just 4 cents below the all-time high set in June 2022. 12. The Bank of Japan is reportedly leaning toward a 25 bps rate hike at its September 18 meeting, which would take rates from 1.00% to 1.25%, according to Bloomberg. Officials reportedly see inflation risks skewed to the upside, with Japan’s key inflation gauge expected to move back toward 3% as yen weakness and higher oil prices add pressure. A 50 bps hike is seen as unlikely for now, but the BOJ is leaving the door open to faster tightening later if inflation stays firm. A September move would come just 3 months after the June hike, marking the shortest gap between hikes under Governor Ueda. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$NBIS will become a "hyperscaler" very soon: Via two axes: 1. Cost of capital 2. Cost per token Everything else about a hyperscaler is downstream of those two variables. Looking at cost of capital alone: - Neoclouds are basically a spread business where they raise capital at one rate + earn a contracted return above it. - Most neoclouds fund expansion via equity (v. expensive) and enter into a loop of dilute -> deploy -> depreciate -> repeat. - Nebius's new $775M debt facility from last week breaks that loop. - Their debt facility is collateralised against contracted cash flows from an "investment-grade" customer, so the lenders are essentially pricing off $META / $MSFT receivables rather than Nebius's own credit. - That's v. bullish for Nebius if lenders price them in that way. Especially since early GPU collateralised neocloud debt was at double-digit rates. - The structure repeats. Management says it will replicate the facility against >$40 billion of contracted backlog. - Every new "investment-grade" contract therefore becomes a collateral factory and not just revenue. It manufactures cheap borrowing capacity -> which funds capacity -> which wins contracts. - Customers also pre-fund the machine: deferred rev rose $3.2B in Q1, driving $2.3B of op. cash flow on $399M of revenue. - Ofc that's a delivery obligation and not free money. But it's an obligation funded interest-free vs funding the same buildout w/ debt. Despite what Burry will say, this isn't financing circularity: - $NVDA $2B equity stake is a rounding error against a broader $20B+ capex programme. - And the backlog is cash contracts paid out of $META / $MSFT opco's and not roundtripped semis money. This "new" loop is essentially how AWS became AWS where they funded at bond rates while everyone else funded at much higher equity rates for like 15 years.