Just got my first payout from the new Original Content Rewards program! Reminder - 2x of the money I make from X will always be given away to charity instead of funneled into $NBIS, $INTC or $SNDK stock. Please donate to Cancer Research UK if you're able to! ❤️ I'm grateful that I get to share my thoughts/ideas...and that people take the time to read. It genuinely means a lot to me. -- Not posting this to show off. Rather, illustrating that some good can come from this fun little side hobby. Plus continued accountability to my original pledge when I first started posting on X.

Yep, my market timing was absolutely perfect here. $INTC +40% $BE +34% $CRDO +29% $NBIS +20% Obviously an element of luck mixed in with some skill (I hope) but these names dropped wayyy too much, wayyy too quickly. With $AMZN, it could drop another 10% and I genuinely wouldn't care. Down 2% so far on that buy. I'm happy!

Even with global Memory capacity expanding by ~20% annually from 2026-2028 per recent estimates, it's hard to see a situation where the supply/demand inbalance closes. According to JPM, they believe 300k additional wafer capacity is needed for the supply/demand picture to be balanced in 2028. I'm not sure how realistic this is though, especially when you consider that sell-side firms have barely even considered that memory demand will keep expanding from GPU to CPU.

As of right now, it feels like the top three Mag 7's are $NVDA, $AMZN and $META. I've personally been buying more of each every week recently. It's also quite fascinating how quickly sentiment for Google has fallen with the stock down 15% since May. I wonder if this is a good spot to take another look at Google though. Surely they'll release a Muse competitor soon on top of Gemini 4? At the same time, part of me feels like they've fumbled around with AI for too long now - it doesn't instill too much confidence tbh.

Conviction in your investments is the MOST important factor if you're picking single stocks. Why? Downstream from conviction is the most important portfolio decision you'll make - concentration/diversification. In general, I think there's two important considerations here: 1. Higher concentration (less diversification) if you have a longer time horizon and you're genuinely patient. Be honest with yourself here. 2. Lower concentration (more diversification) if you pick companies at the beginning of the business/sector life cycle like AI, robotics, quantum and space type areas. With more mature companies and sectors, you get the benefit of having more history to base your investment decisions off of. These are boring companies in boring sectors with absolutely boring returns like McDonalds or Exxon Mobil. Meh. But with newer companies and industries like AI, basically all of the value in the business/sector is years away since so much can change so quickly. Things like a new memory technology, some weird data center laws, or even....frontier pacing. This is why with the AI trade, we often need a catalyst to re-rate a stock or entire theme/bottleneck. That could be things like an earnings release, new contract win, or a positive endorsement from a respected person in the industry like Jensen. Back in H1, any minor catalyst would lead to a re-rating of an entire sector. Photonics and memory are two of those sectors with a list of H1 catalysts that I can't be bothered to list here. However, I feel like many investors are currently struggling with conviction purely as a function of being too highly concentrated in the AI trade and not enough time/patience/grit to do proper DD. Of course, macro events and other factors do introduce some added uncertainty - so if you're constantly checking your portfolio, scared about the AI trade or pacing or even not enough time to keep up with developments - I'd probably suggest diversifying outwards a little bit into lower beta stocks. Survival is always the most important goal when picking individual stocks ✊

Trump/Xi are meeting today 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Let's see if this has any market impacts especially for AI names, but ultimately for stocks to have a clear path higher, oil and yields really need to stabilize... Yesterday was a story of US/Euro PMIs and no movement on the US/Iran deal. Both resulted in bond yields rising yet again with the 10Y currently at 5.10%, and stocks finishing lower on the day. However, I think the sheer speed of the rates move is now the core issue. The 10Y is up ~25bps in two weeks and ~35bps in the past four weeks. This is the point where stocks usually start to see some kind of impact... That said, it's important to look at how healthy corporate financials are right now (look at the balance sheets for the big companies) - so I think we'll need many more hikes to have a huge negative impact on the stock market. Odds are increasing that the Fed will hike again next month 😃 Muse had a relatively short impact on the market on Monday w/ CPU names like Intel and AMD up a fair bit. I feel like this has been exhausted now -- time for macro to take the reigns yet again. For now...let's see what comes out of the Trump/Xi summit.

Muse is probably the biggest moment in AI since ChatGPT launched. AI doing useful stuff like a Personal Assistant in a cheap and easy-to-use form factor was always the mega bull case. This goes way beyond coding tasks, DCF analysis and slop Substack articles where you need a PhD in prompting and the patience of Mother Theresa to get the output you want from a Fable 5 or Astra type frontier model. Obviously those models are uber impressive for deeper work, but most people don't need AI for that kind of stuff. What will entice the masses is the fact that people can now see real ROI (dollars and time) from Muse which I think is still being massively underrated. Imagine a small business that has no structured back-office processes or customer service ops. Agents will be huge for them because ideas can be converted into reality which enables much faster value creation. It could also do stuff like inventory management, customer service, customer acquisition/marketing, and web/app management. All of this is a huge time saver for small business owners since the agent can efficiently AND effectively act on their behalf based on individual preferences and taste. Wouldn't agents therefore be a massive enabler for smaller business to prosper? Wouldn't agents be a significant economic driver once mass adoption inflects upwards? It's kinda surreal. I just wish I had access to Muse in the UK 😭

Here at Expedia, we love planning trips. Soon, your personal AI agent will too. We're joining @Muse: tell it where you're headed and it can work with Expedia to sort your hotels, and everything in between.

I have no idea how I'm going to cut down my Trump/Xi Summit article by at least 50% in the next 24 hours lol. Either I pull an all-nighter or I leave it to collect dust on Google Drive for the next decade 😭 Double whammy because it's actually v. good (institution-grade) anddd it's important for the AI trade / broader geopolitics. Hmmm.

FYI, I am not sponsored by meta at all. I just really love cool stuff … and sadly most of the ai products we have right know are seriously uncool. This is because they are built by people who aren’t cool in the first place, it’s just engineers building for other engineers who think the whole world is made of code and everything runs in a terminal. Apple was the most valuable company on earth for over a decade because of one simple reason. ANYONE could pick up an iPhone and use it and get value out of it, from young kids to grandmothers. You don’t have the equivalent of that today in AI, we just have a bunch of nerds with psychosis and early signs of schizophrenia who would rather talk down to their users and tell them AI is too dangerous and is going to kill everyone… that’s not grandma friendly. I think people forget that technology and knowledge by extension is the great equalizer. Many will try to gate keep this stuff but I give kudos to meta for actually innovating in this domain and making a product anyone can use while still being fun and friendly! Muse is 1,000x more valuable and important than just another coding model with a 2% eval bump that everyone will pretend is great and will just be used to write unit tests. The bottleneck was never the model it was the fact that you have no taste, no agency, and for that reason you don’t build anything impactful. You know what’s really impactful? An agent that is personalized to me, that gets my jokes, knows my taste, has my swag. A thing that knows me inside and out is worth a hundred times more than a thing that knows everything else but that and always talks down to me. This should be a stark warning to all the AI labs, you risk alienating your users more by patronizing them and limiting their experience. There is only so much coding market share left and what comes after that is just ten times harder and more difficult to monetize instead of just doing good for your users. Good luck 👍 & shout out Meta for really delivering a game changing experience !

I think Muse is what AI is supposed to look like. Feels like every lab has been shipping the same thing recently with minor incramental improvements. Text boxes in front of a model = shiny new toy syndrome! No one cares if Muse Spark is the best model in the world rn because it literally doesn't matter to 99.9% of people. Only the top 1% of coders/engineers care about what's changed from one Claude release to the next ChatGPT release. Personally, I have found little improvement since Fable 5 was released and I think that says a lot. I'd probably say it's regressed recently for higher end research tasks. Muse makes me more convinced now that Anthropic/OAI have absolutely zero moat at the consumer level. Enterprises are a different story and that's where both frontier labs need to (already are) focus rather than doomerism and frontier pacing bs. Agents are where AI endgame probably goes - most users just care about usefulness so having one run laborious tasks is way more important than a tiny push on the frontier by Fable 5.1 / Astra to most people. Checking in with your agent will become force-of-habit, same way you check your WhatsApp or emails every morning. Not everyone logs onto Claude or ChatGPT in the same way. (Already a known thesis on Agents, but yeah, worth resurfacing). For the average Joe, this is all the matters. Same way most people don't change phones from one generation to the next because their current phone is good enough. Same way laptops were so important for the PC industry because they were just more convenient than desktops. In that sense, I guess you could say that Muse has pushed the frontier from a usefulness POV. I think we think that most people care about AI like we do...they don't lol. If AI is gonna become mass adopted, it'll be via agents doing stuff for people just how Muse is rn. Since most people already know ChatGPT (noun for AI e.g. "ChatGPT it" similar to "Google it"), it seems like OAI doing a solid enough agent could be enough to oust Anthropic longer term at the consumer layer to have all your context with one lab in an agent + frontier model combo. Sorry for the ramblings and no idea if this logic holds lol - I'm walking to get lunch and wanted to write after a stressful morning!

Today - markets also priced-in reports of positive discussions between the US/China over the weekend 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Ahead of the Trump/Xi summit starting this week (Thursday 24th). Trying to finish up writing a primer ahead of time for you all! This'll be pretty important for the AI trade moving forwards.

Kinda crazy how no one cares about frontier pacing now. That was ridiculous from Dario and co. Markets have since digested the fear from last Monday quite nicely and now seem excited with $META Muse which is a massive efficiency unlock + HUGEEE compute multiplier. Every lab will build something similar eventually = CPU and cloud compute trade keeps going nuts. (Wish I had access to Muse in the UK!) Plus there's strong rumours of OpenAI releasing new models soon -- GPT-6 Sol. And new Anthropic models in the pipeline.

Semiconductor fwd P/E has been tracking inverse oil prices over the past year. Almost perfectly. ⬜️ $SOXX Fwd P/E Multiple 🟦 Inverse oil price Since the Hormuz shock in Feb: As oil prices drop, semiconductor valuations rise. As oil prices rise, semiconductor valuations drop.

Chip exports from SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have surged to record highs in September. In the first 20 days of September, South Korea's total exports rose by 14.9%, compared to 7.2% in August. Chip exports accounted for ~60% of the total increase in exports. After a slowdown in August chip exports, the latest data shows that South Korea’s trade momentum is still strong as of the end of Q3. $SKHY

Pretty big W for me after Citadel published the same market prediction. I personally have high confidence in my stock market analyses - and it's cool to see such a massive institution have the same opinion. - A pre-midterm rally looks more likely now than it did a few weeks ago on the lead up to the FOMC rates decision. - I also mentioned recently that positioning is much cleaner now after July (the Leopold drama). Tons of leverage has been washed out of high beta sectors (mainly semiconductors), which is where sentiment has fallen the most. - Big earnings catalysts coming up around midterms. Even if my prediction ends up being wrong, it's still a nice confidence booster regardless.

Citadel have just shared the same 2026 stock market prediction as me. > Now: AI sentiment has turned sharply negative and positioning has been reduced (since July, but rebuilt slightly in recent weeks). > Through September: Supply/demand and seasonality still point to downside. > Q4: Those same September resets begin to work in the other direction, first in Tech and potentially across the broader market into earnings and year-end. Not sure if it's a good thing that I have the same viewpoint as Citadel lol. But it's cool to see my thinking line-up with key market participants.