A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. CoreWeave $CRWV reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.6B, slightly ahead of estimates of $2.56B, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B versus $1.43B expected and adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%. Revenue backlog reached roughly $104B, up 46% YoY, while active power more than tripled YoY to 1.5GW and contracted power increased to 4.2GW. CoreWeave raised FY26 guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B in revenue and $960M–$1.15B in adjusted operating income, while lifting its active power target to more than 1.85GW. The company now expects year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $18.5B–$19.5B, managed inference ARR above $250M exiting 2026, and long-term active power of 8GW+ by 2030. Management said customer demand is accelerating as enterprise adoption broadens and its platform deepens. 2. Gemini has become $GOOGL Google’s fastest-growing product ever, crossing 1B monthly users and becoming the company’s 14th product to reach the billion-user milestone. The scale-up underscores how quickly Google is pushing Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and its broader AI ecosystem. 3. BofA downgraded AppLovin $APP to Neutral with a $400 price target, saying risks to the company’s long-term 30% YoY revenue growth trajectory have increased. Analyst Omar Dessouky said post-Q2 growth appears to be driven more by engineer-directed improvements to Gaming models, while it is less clear whether the prior 3%–5% QoQ self-learning growth assumption still applies. BofA also noted that with AppLovin’s high relative market share, estimated at roughly 2x its next-largest competitor, long-term growth from self-learning alone may be harder to sustain than the market previously assumed. 4. President Trump is reportedly weighing a capital gains tax cut ahead of the midterms, including the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation before taxes are calculated. Under that approach, investors would only owe taxes on the inflation-adjusted “real” gain, not the full nominal gain. For example, if someone bought a business or stock position for $2M and sold it years later for $5M, the nominal gain would be $3M. But if cumulative inflation over that period was 25%, the inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $2.5M, leaving only $2.5M of taxable real gain instead of $3M. Trump has also floated capital gains exemptions for home sales worth $2M or less. There has not been a major U.S. capital gains tax cut since 2003. 5. Senator Bernie Sanders has reportedly called on major AI companies to pause development, sending letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, according to NYT. The push adds to the growing political scrutiny around frontier AI development, safety, and whether the largest labs should slow deployment as model capabilities continue advancing. 6. Apple $AAPL is reportedly still planning a glass-centric iPhone redesign for the device’s 20th anniversary in 2027, contrary to a Jefferies report that said it had been canceled, according to Bloomberg. The new Pro models are expected to feature glass that curves into the sides, with a metal band running through the middle. 7. U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06M annualized pace, slightly above estimates. Median existing home prices rose 2% YoY to $434,100, while inventory increased to 1.54M homes. The data points to a housing market that is still soft on transaction volume, but with prices remaining resilient as supply continues to build. 8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.2M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $SPCX with 861K contracts, $AAPL with 823K contracts, $MU with 664K contracts, $AMZN with 568K contracts, $PLTR with 559K contracts, $INTC with 555K contracts, $GOOGL with 546K contracts, and $HTZ with 518K contracts. 9. Supermicro $SMCI reported Q4’26 revenue of $11.1B, below estimates of $11.55B, but adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $0.96 expected, up 315% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 17.5%, up 800 bps YoY, while net income reached $1.2B, adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B, and operating income came in at $1.5B. For Q1, Supermicro guided revenue to $14.5B–$15.5B, well above estimates of $11.68B, with adjusted EPS of $1.01–$1.10. For FY27, the company guided revenue to $65B–$72B, far ahead of the $52.5B estimate. Management said Supermicro generated more than $60B in new orders and entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog, while improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of its optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions architecture. 10. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rocket Lab $RKLB and raised its price target to $132, saying the company delivered a “beat and raise” quarter with Q2 results ahead of expectations across revenue, margins, and EBITDA. Rocket Lab signed 26 new Electron/HASTE missions, expanded total launch backlog to more than 90 missions, and grew overall backlog to roughly $2.4B, with another $800M of bookings added after quarter-end. Stifel also highlighted accelerating Space Systems revenue as SDA programs ramp, multiple defense awards, and continued progress on Neutron, which remains on schedule for pad delivery in Q4’26. The firm said Rocket Lab’s Iridium acquisition, GHOST launch system, defense exposure, backlog visibility, and limited competition create a compelling long-term risk/reward despite near-term cash burn. 11. Schwab clients were net buyers of ETFs and equities in July by a 2:1 ratio. The top stocks bought were $SPCX, $MU, $INTC, $ORCL, and $TSLA, while the top stocks sold were $AAPL, $AVGO, $ADBE, $PYPL, and $AMD. The data shows retail leaning back into high-beta AI, memory, and space-linked names while trimming exposure to some of the market’s more mature tech leaders. 12. The SEC is reportedly preparing to roll out two major crypto initiatives $BTC $ETH as the Clarity Act stalls in Congress, according to Bloomberg. The agency will hold an open meeting Friday to create a tailored offering regime for certain crypto-related investment contracts. The SEC is also expected to unveil an “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized securities, potentially paving the way for 24/7 trading of stock tokens on blockchains. Details could be released as soon as Friday, though the proposal is still being finalized and could change. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

WSJ says Anthropic IPO in October… Are you a buyer? If so, what valuation? - Current run rate is $70B ARR - Raised at $965B, probably going to aim for $1.5T valuation on IPO The S1 will be really important to see the path to profitability and how much capex they are spending. A successful IPO probably setups the stage for OpenAI to go public in 2027, but public markets will have to believe in the sustainability of their growth. Worst case scenario is a pump like SPCX but nothing to sustain it and then a 50% drawdown, but in the case would likely affect other semi companies that ultimately benefit from Anthropic’s spend.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nvidia $NVDA announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create independent AI compute financing platforms designed to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital over time. The goal is to turn Nvidia compute and full-stack AI infrastructure into an investable asset class, helping fund the global buildout of AI factories while giving Nvidia customers access to large pools of capital at attractive rates. Jensen: “In AI, compute is revenue. NVIDIA compute is uniquely suited for this role. It is broadly adopted, flexible across models and workloads, fungible and transferable across customers and operators, and continuously improved through CUDA software. That is why we are bringing the world’s leading long-term capital providers together to independently underwrite AI infrastructure. These financing platforms will help customers access scarce compute at scale and build the DSX AI factories that will power every industry and country in the age of AI.” 2. Meta $META released Muse Glimmer, a new 30B-parameter dense AI model with open weights that can run locally, with weights for Muse Spark 1.2 expected to follow soon. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said he believes everyone will eventually have a personal AI agent that understands them and what they care about. 3. Chinese humanoid robot makers accounted for more than 97% of global shipments in 1H26, with volumes more than tripling to 19,100 units. Agibot led the market with a 44% share, while industrial and commercial use cases made up over 70% of shipments. Unitree Robotics is also going public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange at a $9 billion valuation, with its IPO oversubscribed by retail investors by 8000%. 4. Microsoft $MSFT plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September, according to The Information, marking progress after a slower start for its in-house silicon program. Microsoft reportedly plans to expand internal use of Maia while also targeting major external customers. The move could give Microsoft more control over the AI infrastructure powering its services as demand for compute continues to surge. 5. Rocket Lab $RKLB reported Q2’26 revenue of $234M, slightly ahead of estimates of $231M, up 62% YoY. EPS came in at -$0.08 versus -$0.07 expected, while backlog reached a record $2.36B, up 137% YoY. For Q3, Rocket Lab guided revenue to $250M–$265M, above estimates of $239M, with non-GAAP gross margin expected at 35%–37%. Non-GAAP gross margin in Q2 was 41.5%, while net loss was $49.3M. Business highlights included the announced Iridium acquisition and the launch of GHOST, a globally deployable launch system. Management said backlog growth, combined with new Q3 deals, represents more than $1B in new contracts across launch and space systems, positioning Rocket Lab to become a self-launching, tier-1 space power. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 1.9M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $MSFT with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 945K contracts, $INTC with 880K contracts, $PLTR with 803K contracts, $AMZN with 778K contracts, and $META with 704K contracts. 7. Hims & Hers $HIMS reported Q2’26 revenue of $753.2M, beating estimates of $700M, up 38% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $60.3M versus $47.2M expected, while subscribers rose 19% YoY to 2.891M. U.S. revenue grew 16% YoY to $621.8M, while Rest of World revenue surged 1,641% YoY to $131.4M, helped by the close of the Eucalyptus acquisition in June. For Q3, Hims guided revenue to $880M–$900M, well above estimates of $793M. For FY26, the company raised revenue guidance to $3.1B–$3.3B versus $2.93B expected, while reiterating increased conviction in its 2030 targets of at least $6.5B in revenue and $1.3B in adjusted EBITDA. 8. Earnings season is nearly complete, and results have been much stronger than expected. With almost 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, Q2 EPS is now projected to rise 30% YoY excluding investment mark-ups from Alphabet and Amazon, well above the 22% consensus forecast from July 1. Including those one-time gains, EPS growth jumps to nearly 50% YoY. Meanwhile, 76% of companies have beaten EPS expectations, matching last quarter’s beat rate, which was the highest since 2021. 9. Intel $INTC announced a proposed $15B underwritten public offering of common stock, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including CapEx and working capital. The company said customer demand remains strong, driven by major investment in AI compute, with growth opportunities across physical AI, purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging, and external wafers. Intel also expects to give underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to an additional $2.25B of common stock, while emphasizing that the raise is meant to support growth opportunities, maintain balance sheet strength, and preserve its investment-grade rating. 10. Trading volume across the 7 leveraged ETFs tied to $SKHY SK Hynix has collapsed nearly 90% to less than 100M shares/day after regulators raised the minimum cash deposit required to trade the products, effective July 31. The stock decline and tighter rules have shaken out retail investors who chased the rally, with roughly 1T won ($710M) in retail accounts facing forced liquidation in June and another 993B won ($700M) in July, the two largest forced-liquidation months this year. Margin loan balances have fallen to 27.4T won ($19.3B) as of August 4, the lowest level of the year. Morgan Stanley estimates the deleveraging process is now more than halfway complete, though foreign investors remain cautious after selling $30B in June, another $6.2B in July, and $4.3B so far in August. 11. Bank of America is sticking with its call for 75 bps of Fed rate hikes this year despite weaker labor data. U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while prior months were revised down by another 103,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, wage growth slowed to 3.2%, and labor-force participation slipped. Even with hiring softening, BofA still expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September, arguing that inflation remains the central concern. 12. Micron $MU today said customers remain largely insensitive to memory pricing as data center demand continues to outstrip supply, with the company saying it cannot meet even half of current customer needs. Management also pointed to demand signals extending multiple years, though it did not provide a specific update to quarterly guidance. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Palantir $PLTR reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.94B, up 93% YoY, with U.S. revenue surging 115% to $1.57B. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% to $764M, U.S. government revenue rose 90% to $809M, GAAP net income climbed 324% to $1.06B with a 55% margin, and adjusted free cash flow reached $1.22B with a 63% margin. The company posted a Rule of 40 score of 155%, $3.4B in TCV, $2.1B in U.S. commercial TCV, $6.2B in U.S. commercial RDV, ended the quarter with $9.2B in cash, and raised FY guidance to $8.15B, implying 82% YoY growth. CEO Alex Karp: “Demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed. And Palantir is the only company that has demonstrated it can transform tokens into actual economic value. Our customers trust us to provide them with maximal control over their operations, data, and decisions. Their competitive advantage should never become the training data for future models. This quarter was otherworldly. The sovereign AI revolution makes us very optimistic about the future." 2. The stock market had one of its best days in 2026: semiconductors, software, and hyperscalers participated together. Throughout the year, one sector would go up in tech while the others go down, but with oil falling 7% and the market trying to move on from the deleveraging event of last week, markets seem to be more positively looking at the companies spending capex like $MSFT $GOOGL $META and $AMZN which all had strong moves today, Microsoft had the largest single day increase in marketcap last week at $448B with $NVDA having the record of $441B in April 2025. The companies getting the capex (semis) did strongly and the companies making sense of the models in the enterprise, software companies, were also green. It's the first day in months that all 3 sectors $SPY $IGV $SMH participated together in a rally. 3. Trump said the U.S. will hold off on attacking Iran after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries asked Washington to pause once the outline of a potential deal was agreed. He said any agreement must include the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of Iran’s nuclear threat. The pause appears conditional on a deal being reached quickly, while Iranian officials quoted by state-linked media denied asking for a halt. Trump said Iranian leadership is “duplicitous,” adding that while they publicly deny talks, “they know we are” negotiating toward a solution. 4. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 4.4M contracts, $TSLA with 2.9M contracts, $AAPL with 1.7M contracts, $AMZN with 1.5M contracts, $MSFT with 1.4M contracts, $MU with 1.3M contracts, $META with 886K contracts, $GOOGL with 792K contracts, $SPCX with 786K contracts, and $INTC with 759K contracts. 5. The semiconductor index $SOX saw intraday moves of at least 2% in all 22 trading days in July, matching the extreme volatility last seen in 2020. Before that, a stretch like this had not occurred since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The SOX fell 21% in July, its worst month since October 2008, wiping out $2.2T in market cap. The move pushed 60-day realized volatility to roughly 66%, the highest since the pandemic peak of about 85% in 2020 and not far from the 75% level seen during the 2008 crisis. 6. Jeff Bezos filed a Form 144 on August 3 to sell 15M Amazon $AMZN shares, with an aggregate market value of roughly $4.07B. The filing lists an approximate sale date of August 3, 2026, and the sale is tied to a 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on November 14, 2025. The shares were originally acquired as founder stock, and the filing also notes Bezos contributed 220,200 shares to nonprofit organizations on May 4. 7. Hedge funds are moving back into tech stocks aggressively. In the week ending Thursday, funds recorded their largest net purchase of U.S. technology stocks since December 2022, marking the 3rd-largest weekly buy in at least 5 years. The buying was mainly driven by new long positions, with some short covering as well. Software, semiconductors, and semiconductor equipment saw the strongest demand, followed by tech hardware. Hedge funds also bought Magnificent 7 stocks for 4 straight days through Thursday. 8. Tesla $TSLA sales in Spain plunged 81.3% YoY in July to just 131 vehicles. Despite the sharp monthly decline, Tesla’s sales in Spain are still up 19.8% YoY through the first seven months of 2026, while the broader Spanish electrified vehicle market has grown 34.9% over the same period. 9. Grab $GRAB reported record Q2 2026 results, raised full-year guidance, and announced an additional $750M share repurchase program. Revenue grew 22% YoY to $997M, On-Demand GMV rose 21% YoY to $6.5B, profit for the period reached $235M, and adjusted EBITDA increased 54% YoY to $168M. Grab also generated $450M of trailing 12-month adjusted free cash flow. The company raised FY26 guidance to $4.10B–$4.15B in revenue and $720M–$740M in adjusted EBITDA, while bringing cumulative buyback authorization to $1.75B since 2024. Grab has been buying back stock since March 2026, and management previously said it expects revenue to grow at a 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2028, with adjusted EBITDA tripling to $1.5B by 2028. 10. Leveraged and inverse ETFs tied to SK Hynix now hold roughly $5.5B in assets, the most of any single stock globally. Micron $MU follows at about $5.1B, while Nvidia $NVDA accounts for roughly $4.8B. Tesla $TSLA is the largest non-chip name on the list at around $3.7B. In total, semiconductor-related stocks now represent about $21B of leveraged and inverse ETF assets, while the 3x leveraged U.S. semiconductor ETF $SOXL took in $6.9B in July, its largest monthly inflow on record. 11. Bernstein sees the global server market reaching $1T by 2028, raising its forecasts for global server shipments and GPU AI server shipments to 15% and 22% CAGRs through 2028. The firm expects 8-GPU-equivalent server shipments to grow 48% in 2026, with rack shipments reaching 61,000 this year and 88,000 in 2027. Nvidia $NVDA Rubin and AMD $AMD Helios racks are expected to start shipping in Q4. Bernstein also says planned and under-construction data center investment now totals roughly $1.2T, while major cloud providers’ 2026 capex estimates have risen nearly 15% since March, with combined spend projected around $1.1T by 2027. Custom ASICs are expected to represent roughly 45% of CoWoS-based AI chip shipments, with Google TPU shipments projected to grow about 90% in 2026. 12. Citadel’s Rubner says the early-summer excesses in the market have largely been unwound. Retail investors have reduced risk, leverage has normalized, concentration has eased, and many of the biggest technical headwinds have started to fade. As a result, he believes investors can shift more attention back to fundamentals rather than positioning. Position sizes and risk budgets are expected to rebuild gradually, supporting a lower-volatility grind higher instead of another sharp V-shaped recovery. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Spoke with Chris Camillo @ChrisCamillo on his Amazon $AMZN trade and what it took to continue having the conviction to hold and size up in the trade: “My account was down like 40% this month. I was getting margin call after margin call which is when I decided that this was enough and it was time to go all in. This was the single best trading day of my career.”

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Citadel bought the bulk of Situational Awareness’ public-equities portfolio after the firm’s assets reportedly fell from $45B to around $10B, with the fund said to have been running roughly 4x leverage. Goldman was involved in the sale talks, while Millennium also submitted a bid. The context is brutal: Citadel itself helped fuel surprise rate-hike fears into FOMC, the market then sold off aggressively, and high-beta semiconductor names saw extreme drawdowns that compounded pressure across the space. With Situational Awareness heavily levered into that unwind, margin pressure appears to have forced the fund to unload public assets at distressed levels. Citadel then stepped in as the buyer, effectively taking the other side of the liquidation after helping spark the narrative that contributed to the selloff. The private Anthropic stake remains, and Situational Awareness will continue operating as a private investment firm with a reported $5B stake in Anthropic. Semis rebounded and had their best day in a year as the market may have interpreted the liquidation as a bottoming event to the structural deleveraging that took place. 2. Amazon $AMZN reported a strong Q2’26, with revenue up 20% YoY to $200.6B vs $196.47B expected and operating income up 43% YoY to $27.5B vs $23.53B expected. AWS revenue grew 37% YoY to $42.2B vs $40.5B expected, with AWS operating margin reaching 39.4% vs 33.8% expected. North America revenue came in at $116.2B, while International revenue rose 15% YoY to $42.2B. EPS was $5.75, helped by a $53.4B non-operating gain primarily tied to Amazon’s Anthropic investment. Q3 revenue guidance of $197B–$202B came in below the $204.07B estimate, while operating income guidance of $22.5B–$26.5B was roughly in line. Management said AWS posted its fastest growth in 18 quarters, with both AI and chips surpassing $25B run rates, while advertising grew 26% YoY. 3. Apple $AAPL reported Q3’26 revenue of $109.42B vs $108.85B expected, up 16.4% YoY, with EPS of $2.02 vs $1.89 expected, up 28.7% YoY. iPhone revenue grew 21.7% YoY to $54.25B, Mac revenue jumped 28.7% YoY to $10.35B, and Products revenue rose 18.1% YoY to $78.68B. Services missed estimates at $30.74B, while Greater China also came in below expectations at $18.82B, though still up 22.4% YoY. Operating income beat at $35.7B, net income reached $29.79B, and 9-month operating cash flow rose 43.1% YoY to $117B. Apple also declared a $0.27/share dividend and said its active device installed base hit a new all-time high across all major product categories and regions. 4. Tesla $TSLA is reportedly considering a separation of its China business ahead of a potential SpaceX $SPCX deal, per WSJ. Advisers have discussed options including a spinoff, sale, or closure, while executives have been told to prepare for a possible split, though plans remain early and could change. A standalone China unit would create a regulatory firewall between Tesla and SpaceX, a major U.S. defense contractor, helping address concerns around Chinese customer data, dual-use technology, and Beijing oversight. China represented about 18% of Tesla’s sales in the first half of 2026 and includes two major Shanghai factories, while SpaceX generated 20.9% of its 2025 business from the U.S. government. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.8M contracts, $MSFT with 1.9M contracts, $TSLA with 1.6M contracts, $AMZN with 1.2M contracts, $AAPL with 1.0M contracts, $META with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 984K contracts, $INTC with 753K contracts, $SPCX with 685K contracts, and $IREN with 569K contracts. 6. OpenAI reportedly cut prices for GPT-5.6, per Axios. Pricing for GPT-5.6 Luna was reduced by roughly 80% to $0.20 per million input tokens, while GPT-5.6 Terra pricing was cut by 20% to $2 per million input tokens. 7. U.S. Q2 advance GDP came in at 1.5% vs 2.0% expected, while initial jobless claims were 197K vs 200K expected and continued claims came in at 1.782M vs 1.795M expected. Inflation was largely in line, with headline PCE at 3.7% YoY and -0.1% MoM, while core PCE came in at 3.3% YoY and 0.1% MoM vs 0.2% expected. Personal spending rose 0.3% MoM vs 0.4% expected, personal income increased 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, and real personal spending matched estimates at 0.4% MoM. 8. AUM in South Korea’s leveraged ETFs has fallen by $37B, or roughly 70%, from its all-time high just over 30 days ago, bringing total assets down to about $16B, the lowest since early April. The unwind follows a massive 500% surge since the start of 2026, with domestic-listed funds driving most of the decline and making up around 70% of total leveraged ETF assets. The collapse in leveraged products comes as Korea’s KOSPI rebounded nearly 15% alongside a broader rally in global chip stocks. 9. DeepSeek is reportedly targeting a 1GW AI data center buildout, with plans for a new campus in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, while also leasing additional capacity, per Bloomberg. At least part of the compute is expected to come online by late 2027 or early 2028, though it remains unclear which chips will power the project. The buildout would be larger than any AI facility currently operated by a Chinese company, but still below the 3GW and 5GW AI campuses being developed in the U.S. Chinese rival is also pursuing a 1GW project using only domestically produced chips. 10. $GOOGL Google is backing Anthropic’s planned Texas AI campus, with Nexus Data Centers reportedly in advanced talks for $15B in financing led by Morgan Stanley, per WSJ. The project would include a 1.6GW data center campus and natural-gas power plant in Hubbard, Texas. Anthropic has signed four data-center leases and related power-purchase agreements, while Google would guarantee billions of dollars in lease and power obligations if Anthropic defaults and is expected to receive roughly a 20% equity stake in the project. The campus would run on Google TPUs co-designed with Broadcom, with the chips financed separately through a vendor-financing agreement between Anthropic and Broadcom. 11. The EU opened its AI gigafactory tender, with Brussels set to choose up to 7 projects backed by as much as €10B in EU and national funding and expected to draw at least €20B in private capital. Each facility would house at least 100,000 advanced AI chips, roughly 4x the scale of current EU AI factories, supporting frontier model training, fine-tuning, and inference while giving compute access to startups, industry, researchers, and public agencies. The projects are expected to more than double Europe’s existing 19-factory AI network, while also creating demand for European-designed AI processors and eventually supporting domestic chip manufacturing. Bids close November 12, with awards expected in July 2027. 12. Amazon $AMZN said it is raising 2026 cash CapEx to $220B, up from its prior estimate of about $200B, largely because higher memory costs are pushing infrastructure spend higher. The company said that even at this level, it still will not have enough capacity to satisfy all demand in 2026, and expects the same capacity constraint to continue into 2027. Amazon added that demand already visible for 2028 is “striking,” while emphasizing that it typically buys servers and networking equipment only a few months before deployment, giving it strong visibility before committing capital. Management said if the demand is not there, it will not spend on the equipment. I know I say it everyday, but today is one of those days that reminds you... WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

oh my goodness CNBC reporting Situational Awareness sold their ENTIRE PUBLIC book including 50% of their Anthropic bro...this guy was the poster child of the ai infra trade he was 4 times levered...this is absolutely crazy did he sell the bottom? did we need this to happen to put in a low? or did he lose faith in the entire AI trade and sell it all?

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The Fed held rates steady, as expected, but the decision came with 3 dissents in favor of a 25 bps hike from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Fed Chair Warsh said the move should not be viewed as a “pause,” arguing that markets have already made their judgment and the Fed now has 7–8 weeks of incoming data to assess. He said the June core CPI print did not materially change the decision, with the broader inflation trend now mattering more. Warsh also said the Fed is doing well on the employment mandate, though the AI-driven capex surge makes it harder to judge aggregate supply and demand. 2. Meta $META reported Q2 2026 revenue of $60.8B, up 28% YoY, with advertising revenue rising 27% YoY to $59.4B. EPS fell 13% YoY to $6.18, while Reality Labs posted an operating loss of $4.62B. Daily active people increased 3% YoY to 3.60B, and Meta guided Q3 revenue to $61B–$64B. The stock is under pressure as investors focus on the EPS miss and continued AI infrastructure spending, with FY26 capex now expected at $130B–$145B. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said AI is already accelerating Meta’s core business, powering new products, and opening up new enterprise opportunities. 3. Robinhood $HOOD delivered an exceptional Q2 2026, with revenue up 32% YoY to $1.31B, net income up 48% YoY to $573M, and adjusted EBITDA up 35% YoY to $741M. Transaction-based revenue grew 44% YoY to $776M, while total platform assets rose 32% YoY to $369B. Net deposits hit an all-time high of $21.7B, with $3B already in Robinhood Banking. Gold subscribers increased 39% YoY to 4.8M, with a record 17% attach rate, while ARPU rose 24% YoY to $187. Robinhood also bought back 4.4M shares in the quarter, lowered expense guidance, now has 13 business lines doing $100M+ ARR, and its Gold Card has reached 1M holders with $17B of annualized spend. 4. Retail investors sold a net $243M of single stocks yesterday, marking the largest one-day outflow since the COVID crash, according to Vanda Research. 5. Microsoft $MSFT reported Q2 2026 revenue of $90.0B, adjusted EPS of $4.74, and operating income of $40.6B. Azure and other cloud revenue grew 43% YoY, while Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $59.3B and Intelligent Cloud revenue came in at $39.3B. Capex was $35.8B, reflecting continued AI infrastructure investment. CEO Satya Nadella said Azure revenue surpassed $100B for the first time this year, while Microsoft 365 Copilot reached more than 30M paid seats, showing growing enterprise adoption of Microsoft’s AI stack. 6. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar and board chair Bret Taylor reportedly addressed employees in an internal meeting on Wednesday, with Friar telling staff that July annualized recurring revenue was already higher than the entire Q2 level. The update appears aimed at reassuring employees that OpenAI’s business remains healthy as competition intensifies from Anthropic and a growing wave of open-source AI players. 7. SpaceX $SPCX is reportedly weighing acquisitions or a bid in the FCC’s July 2027 Upper C-band auction to secure terrestrial spectrum, per Semafor. The company is looking for airwaves that perform better in cities and dense areas, which could help Starlink compete more directly with $T AT&T, $VZ Verizon, and $TMUS T-Mobile. SpaceX has already bought $17B of EchoStar spectrum licenses, though its latest spectrum strategy remains fluid. 8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.8M contracts, $TSLA with 2.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.7M contracts, $MU with 1.2M contracts, $INTC with 905K contracts, $SOFI with 802K contracts, $AMD with 654K contracts, $AMZN with 631K contracts, $SPCX with 615K contracts, and $GOOGL with 582K contracts. 9. JPMorgan says Korea’s equity market has gone through an intense deleveraging phase since mid-June, with the KOSPI now down nearly 40% from its June 22 peak. The firm says the selloff was amplified by leveraged ETF flows and hedge fund positioning unwind, but now believes the leveraged ETF unwind is complete and hedge funds are roughly 90% done deleveraging. While some residual selling may continue and investors remain cautious ahead of the FOMC and hyperscaler earnings, JPMorgan says Korea’s positioning setup now looks attractive on balance, supported by cheap valuations and earnings momentum. 10. U.S. senators are warning Apple $AAPL against using Chinese memory chips from CXMT or YMTC, even for devices sold only in China. Lawmakers led by Jim Banks and Chuck Schumer urged Apple to abandon the talks, noting both chipmakers are on a Pentagon list of Chinese military companies, while YMTC is also on the Commerce Department’s Entity List. Senators warned that Apple qualifying the chips could pave the way for broader use later, and asked Apple to commit by August 21 not to use them while disclosing any technical information already shared. The pressure comes as the global memory market remains tight, with potential read-throughs for $MU, $SNDK, and $SKHY. 11. Meta $META is not giving specific 2027 CapEx guidance, saying infrastructure planning remains highly dynamic as it builds for maximum capacity in 2026 and 2027, while keeping room to expand in 2028 and beyond. On AI, Meta said it is optimistic about meaningful growth across its AI businesses and expects to share more soon. The company also said it has received multiple offers to monetize its compute at a meaningful premium to cost, but believes selling intelligence will carry significantly higher margins than selling compute directly. 12. Korea’s government announced an emergency market meeting after the recent equity-market selloff, with the finance ministry also launching a 24-hour market monitoring system. The measures include new restrictions on leveraged ETF trading and caps on retail exposure to these products. Korean stocks have bounced on the news as policymakers move to stabilize markets. I know it's very ugly out there. We all are going through it. It is the greatest show on earth for the reason: you just don't know what's going to happen next. Earnings are amazing so the selloff feels more structural and rooted in deleveraging/bad sentiment around AI vs the entire AI trade itself not being real or having strong fundamentals. Some valuations really got aggressive and the unwind has taken everything down along with the war being a really ugly headwind for the entire market. Stay strong, make sure you aren't too levered, and remember that the broader markets have seen worse and will persist through this. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

REUTERS: - Mediators say a proposal to revive the US-Iran MOU is close, but awaits Trump’s decision after speaking to Israel today - Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar are involved in advancing a plan to clarify disagreements - Iran and Oman have already approved the proposal which would allow negotiations to begin again Trump went on Fox this morning and said he doesn’t want to start bombing plants/ bridges and also said Iran wants a deal. Oil just fell below $80. The 10-yr is now at 4.5%. The US was supposed to strike Friday but Trump shut down those attacks. If there was ever a moment for Trump to really pivot and get back to a path to ceasefire/peace deal, it would be now. If this meeting ends up going well with Netanyahu today then maybe we get some clarity on the Iran situation and the market taking oil and the 10yr down is them pricing in that the worst may have happened, stocks will follow on actual confirmation. Reports of a Fed hiking soon might also be part of the reason Trump wants to resolve the situation. A Fed Hike and increased war intensity would be horrible for inflation. Maybe this time Trump actually de-escalates, as much as it hurts to believe that this time could be different, all the ingredients are there for Trump to actually pivot and make sure inflation becomes more tame by negotiating an actual peace deal.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Semis $SMH fell about 2.5% today as the market reacted to a mix of China supply-chain headlines and growing AI financing concerns. A Chinese state-backed firm has reportedly started mass-producing domestic DUV lithography machines, raising fears that China could become less reliant on Western suppliers like ASML and pressure future equipment demand. At the same time, Nvidia $NVDA reportedly backstopping OpenAI’s new data center buildout with $250B, along with another $5B investment into a new AI startup, is adding to concerns that parts of the AI trade are becoming too circular. China also just completed its second-largest IPO ever through a memory company, which is feeding worries that memory supply could expand just as pricing may be nearing a peak. 2. Palantir $PLTR CEO Alex Karp kicked off the company’s first Sovereignty Bootcamp, bringing together 150+ customers to discuss sovereign AI and enterprise ownership of AI-driven value. Karp said companies should not pay for AI tools only to have their business replicated by the provider, arguing that enterprises need to own what they produce. He called sovereign AI “the most important thing in AI,” framing it as the next major wave of the AI revolution. He also said: "You can’t be paying someone and then your reward is that they get to replicate your business. It’s absolutely crazy. We think there is an alternative way of doing this that actually creates more value for an enterprise." 3. Citadel Securities reportedly expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, per Bloomberg. The firm thinks markets may be underpricing a more hawkish Fed pivot and says a surprise hike would reinforce the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility. Interest-rate swaps currently imply about a 40%chance of a move this week, with one full hike priced by September. Citadel says the recent jump in energy prices could be enough to push the Fed toward acting immediately. 4. Nvidia $NVDA announced the Open Secure AI Alliance, bringing industry leaders together to build open tools for securing software and AI agents. Jensen Huang said, “Attackers have frontier AI. Defenders need a frontier AI ecosystem.” Nvidia is arguing that open models and security tooling should be viewed as defensive infrastructure, not a liability. The company warned that broad restrictions on open frontier AI could weaken cyber defenses, increase reliance on a small group of closed providers, and concentrate too much power. Nvidia is calling for shared investment in open AI defense systems, including datasets, evaluation frameworks, attack simulators, and red-teaming tools. 5. BlackRock $BLK raised $12.5B of debt to help finance Meta’s $META nearly 1GW AI data center campus in El Paso, Texas. The 2048 notes priced at 287.5 bps over 10-year Treasuries and drew about $20B in demand, or roughly 1.6x the deal size. BlackRock-backed entities own 80% of the project, while Meta owns the remaining 20%. The financing is backed by Meta’s long-term lease commitments, allowing the data center debt to stay off Meta’s balance sheet. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 4.8M contracts, $TSLA with 2.6M contracts, $AAPL with 1.8M contracts, $MU with 1.1M contracts, $INTC with 1.0M contracts, $MSFT with 700K contracts, $AMD with 654K contracts, $AMZN with 636K contracts, $SPCX with 629K contracts, and $GOOGL with 552K contracts. 7. Trump said the U.S. paused strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance, per Axios. He warned that the U.S. could still return to “very strong military action” if talks break down, adding that diplomacy will not get much time. Discussions are reportedly centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting broader nuclear talks, with Trump set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday. 8. Amazon $AMZN has filed with the FCC to launch 5,105 satellites by 2028 for a direct-to-device mobile network, per FT. The service would support voice, messaging, data, and emergency connectivity beyond traditional cell-tower coverage. Amazon plans to use spectrum tied to its $11.6B Globalstar deal, putting it more directly up against SpaceX’s Starlinkin satellite-enabled mobile services. 9. Foreign buying of U.S. equities has surged to a record $850B over the last 12 months, more than quadrupling since the start of 2025. That is also roughly 450% above the average since 2000. As a share of total equity market cap, foreign purchases are now around 1.3%, the highest since the post-Financial Crisis recovery in 2010 and above the 2021 meme-stock peak of roughly 1.1%. 10. AT&T $T is expanding its use of D-Wave Quantum $QBTS across network operations through a new agreement focused on complex optimization problems. In early testing, AT&T said D-Wave’s annealing quantum technology reduced one network optimization workload from roughly one hour to under 15 seconds. The initial rollout will focus on integrating D-Wave into AT&T’s agentic AI tools for outage detection, technician routing, network planning, traffic management, and response. AT&T said those tools helped reduce customer downtime by 12M hours in 2025. The company is also evaluating D-Wave’s gate-model systems for quantum security and communications, with financial terms not disclosed. 11. BofA says the selloff in European semiconductors has created a compelling entry point. The firm notes the SOX has underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 18% from its peak, similar to past corrections like the 2015 China slowdownand the 2018 China-U.S. trade/Fed hiking cycle, but still less severe than prior downturn drawdowns near 30%. BofA argues fundamentals remain strong, with the sector trading at about a 3x discount to average 2028 consensus multiples, while semiconductor capital equipment names are trading at a 6x–7x discount. BofA also says fears of a memory pricing crash look overdone, while expecting ASM Q2 EPS to beat consensus by 11% and keeping its 2027–2028 EPS estimates for ASML 6%–7% above consensus. 12. South Korea’s KOSPI fell as much as 8% early in trading, triggering a circuit breaker, which temporarily pauses trading to slow panic selling and give the market time to reset. The move is heavily tied to memory stocks, with Samsung and SK Hynix making up roughly half the index and both acting as major memory-cycle trades. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Tesla $TSLA was down 14% today, its worst day since January 2024, while Google $GOOGL was down 7% after posting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004. The macro backdrop is not helping either. Crude oil has pushed back above $90/barrel for the first time since June and is up 25% over the past month. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 4.7%, while jobless claims came in at 187K vs 211K expected, showing a stronger labor market but also raising concerns that inflation pressure could persist. Today was the worst day for the Mag 7 since April 2025 with all 7 stocks erasing $800B of market cap. 2. AMD $AMD CEO Lisa Su said at the AMD Advancing AI event today that the AI accelerator market could grow to $1.4T by 2030, within a broader compute market expected to reach $2T. She also noted that monthly AI token consumption has surged 158x over the past two years, underscoring how quickly compute demand is scaling. AMD unveiled Helios, its new rack-scale AI system built around the MI450 accelerator, which Su called the fastest AI accelerator in the industry. Helios is now in full production, with shipments expected to start at the end of Q3 and ramp through Q4. 3. Intel $INTC posted a strong Q2, with revenue of $16.1B vs $14.5B expected, up 25% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.22 expected. Adjusted gross margin came in at 41.8% vs 39% expected, up 1,210 bps YoY, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 17.2% vs 10.7% expected. Segment results were strong across the core business, with CCPG revenue up 13% YoY to $8.9B, DCAI revenue up 59% YoY to $6.3B, total Intel Products revenue up 28% YoY to $15.1B, and Intel Foundry revenue up 31% YoY to $5.8B. Management said Q2 marked Intel’s strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years, driven by better execution, higher factory yields, improved cycle times, and stronger customer demand. 4. Trump warned that the U.S. will hold Iran responsible if the Houthis resume attacks on commercial shipping. He said the Houthis had acted “responsibly” after previous U.S. strikes, but are now “starting up again” after reportedly firing on two Saudi Arabian ships last night. Trump said the Houthis are a proxy of Iran, and that any further attacks would trigger major military punishment against both Iran and the Houthis. 5. Nvidia $NVDA is committing $1.5B to Amkor $AMKR through a prepayment tied to a multi-year advanced packaging and development agreement. The funding will help Amkor expand U.S. packaging capacity at its Arizona campus as both companies work on next-generation packaging and test technologies for AI and accelerated computing. The partnership will focus on high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration, which are key for combining multiple chips and components into more powerful systems. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.6M contracts, $NVDA with 2.4M contracts, $GOOGL with 994K contracts, $AMZN with 940K contracts, $SPCX with 917K contracts, $AAPL with 732K contracts, $INTC with 706K contracts, $MU with 664K contracts, $GOOG with 560K contracts, and $MSFT with 532K contracts. 7. South Korea is moving to tighten rules around leveraged single-stock ETFs and ETNs beginning July 31. Retail investors will now need about $20,300 in cash to open or add to a position, up from roughly $6,800 previously. The key change is that stocks, bonds, and other securities will no longer count toward the deposit requirement, making it harder for retail traders to access these leveraged products. 8. U.S. mortgage rates rose for the third straight week, with the average 30-year fixed climbing to 6.58%, putting rates back near their highest level in a year. 9. AMD $AMD and Cerebras $CBRS are teaming up on a disaggregated AI inference architecture that divides workloads between both platforms. In the setup, AMD Helios manages prompts and long-context processing, while Cerebras’ Wafer-Scale Engine focuses on ultra-low-latency token generation. The companies say the combined system can deliver up to 5x more tokens per second per watt than Cerebras alone, with initial availability expected through Cerebras Cloud in the second half of 2026. 10. Uber $UBER cut 10% of roles in its customer service operations as it restructures the division and leans further into AI. The company said fragmented workflows were making it harder to roll out AI at scale, and this marks Uber’s first layoff round specifically tied to AI-driven efficiency. 11. SpaceX $SPCX is reportedly turning away satellite operators looking for dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028 as the company shifts more of its long-term launch strategy toward Starship, per Bloomberg. SpaceX has also stopped taking future Falcon 9 rideshare reservations and has paused production of some expendable Falcon components, though Falcon 9 is still expected to remain active for NASA and Pentagon missions. The risk is timing: if Starship is not commercially ready by 2028, the market could face a major launch-capacity gap, creating a bigger opening for competitors like Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and ULA. 12. Meta’s $META new $12B Texas data center financing, tied to a nearly 1GW project, is reportedly being discussed at yields above 7%. That is roughly 40 bps higher than Meta’s $27B Hyperion financing from just nine months ago, adding about $48M in annual interest expense. Hyperion bonds are now trading around 96 cents on the dollar, showing how financing costs for massive AI infrastructure projects are starting to move higher. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Google $GOOGL is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6x to 10x more efficiently than its latest TPUs, per The Information. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and simplifying inference decisions. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to help ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency. 2. Microsoft $MSFT is expanding its partnership with AMD $AMD and will deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale systems on Azure for frontier AI inference. The platform combines MI455X GPUs, Venice CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, with shipments to Microsoft beginning in the second half of 2026. Azure will also add new AMD-powered virtual machines for agentic AI, data pipelines, and semiconductor design, marking a broader adoption of AMD’s full AI infrastructure stack. 3. AUM in U.S. leveraged semiconductor ETFs has fallen $63B from the June peak to $100B, the lowest level since late April. That marks a 39% decline, the largest drawdown since April 2025, when assets more than halved from their August high. The semiconductor unwind accounts for 63% of the broader $100B drop in AUM across all U.S. leveraged ETFs over the same period. The selloff follows a massive ramp, with assets in these funds nearly tripling between late March and the June peak. Even after the pullback, leveraged semiconductor ETF assets are still up 400% from January 2023 levels. 4. Archer $ACHR and Anduril unveiled Thunder, an autonomous attack VTOL aircraft, with first flight planned for 2027. The runway-independent hybrid-electric aircraft is designed to operate autonomously alongside crewed attack and assault aircraft. The dual-use platform features tiltrotors and modular payloads for both defense and commercial missions. Full-scale surrogate flights have already been completed, and Archer plans to announce its first commercial customers later this week. 5. Chinese AI models are taking record share among U.S. firms on OpenRouter. The proportion of tokens used by American companies running through Chinese models has climbed to roughly 58%, a record high. OpenRouter lets developers access and compare models from multiple providers, making it a useful real-world signal of AI model adoption. Chinese model usage has tripled since mid-January, overtaking U.S. peers on the platform for the first time in March and briefly hitting 63% in early July. At the start of 2025, Chinese models were under 10% of usage, while U.S. models were around 80%. DeepSeek has become the most popular choice among American firms in recent months. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.1M contracts, $TSLA with 2.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.8M contracts, $MU with 951K contracts, $MSFT with 884K contracts, $AMZN with 691K contracts, $INTC with 640K contracts, $SPCX with 606K contracts, $AMD with 506K contracts, and $GOOGL with 492K contracts. 7. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on CoreWeave $CRWV with a $140 price target. Analyst Tal Liani raised FY26 capex estimates to $34B from $29B, saying capex remains a key indicator of buildout progress and hardware pricing. BofA expects Q2 operating margin of 2.4%, slightly below the Street at 2.8%, but sees margins improving through the rest of the year as active power drives revenue recognition. By Q4, BofA expects operating margin to reach 14.6%, up from 1.0% in Q1, showing strong operating leverage. The firm also pushed back on competition concerns from SpaceX and Meta, arguing AI compute demand still far exceeds supply, making access to capacity the real bottleneck rather than provider choice. 8. IREN $IREN raised its 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to over $4B, up from its prior target of $3.7B. The company announced new AI cloud contracts representing $2.8B in total contract value, with approximately 85% of the updated ARR target now under contract. Goldman Sachs estimates the newly announced contracts represent an additional roughly $1B in contracted revenue with an average term of around 3 years. IREN also said recent agreements include customer prepayments covering about 45% of GPU capex, with customer contracts having a weighted average term of approximately 4 years. 9. UBS says Micron $MU could repurchase more than 40% of its shares by the end of 2028. The firm expects Micron to generate over $40B in free cash flow through 2028, and once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, UBS says the company could potentially use that cash to buy back more than 40% of its shares at the current price. Morgan Stanley said that memory stocks are trading at attractive prices but their best risk to reward names in the semi space are $NVDA Nvidia and $AVGO Broadcom. 10. Bloom Energy $BE shares are trading lower after New Mexico regulators rejected permits for a gas pipeline planned to supply Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center for the second time. The decision could delay the campus, which is expected to use up to 2.5GW of Bloom Energy’s gas-powered fuel cells. Energy Transfer may now pursue an alternative pipeline route. 11. Intel $INTC plans additional layoffs in its data center group as part of a broader effort to become a more focused and efficient company, CNBC reports. Intel said the unit is realigning roles and skills for long-term success, though the number of affected employees was not disclosed. 12. Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to what the White House calls Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. products. The tariffs cover different categories of Canadian imports, including products ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and apply even if goods originate under USMCA. Exemptions include energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, fish, critical minerals, and certain other products. The tariffs take effect 30 days after signing. WALL STREET IS THE GREATST SHOW ON EARTH,

$IBM Woah. IBM put out preliminary Q2 results...and they are not good. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up 1% YoY. Consulting revenue was flat and infrastructure revenue was down 7% YoY. All the software names are down in sympathy to IBM basically saying that software spend went to semiconductor spend this quarter. CEO Arvind Krishna: “In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.” He also said clients were distracted by “rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns,” and that IBM “did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.” Company just lose $65B in market cap. I don't think all the software names should be down because of IBM's specific news but today could be a day where the fear of this happening to other names affects all of them. $IBM -24%

$HOOD I have covered Robinhood for the past 3 years, and it is fair to say that something really different has happened in the past 2 weeks since their Crypto event in the UK. Why? Well... Just over one week after launch of the Robinhood Chain: - 17M+ transactions - Nearly 350K total addresses - Nearly $250M in protocol TVL - More than $1B in DEX trading volume And three days ago, Robinhood Chain flipped Hyperliquid in 24-hour DEX volume, according to DefiLlama: Robinhood Chain: $433.19M Hyperliquid: $296.23M The implications for $HOOD are significant and really cannot be ignored by the market. Robinhood is evolving from a brokerage that earns from customer trading activity into a vertically integrated financial ecosystem with its own blockchain, exchange infrastructure, tokenized assets and on-chain liquidity. This along with the Trump accounts is why I think the stock has finally decoupled from $BTC and is now trading at 80% above its lows in May. Bitcoin could go up or down, the market has moved on with pegging HOOD's stock to random BTC fluctuations, because HOOD is so, so much more important than what happens with any individual coin. If Robinhood Chain continues gaining adoption, Robinhood could capture economics from: - Blockchain transaction fees - DEX trading and liquidity activity - Tokenized stocks and real-world assets (something Vlad really wants to push heavily as he sees the entire world is moving on chain) - Stablecoin payments and settlement - Third-party applications built on its network - Increased customer deposits and engagement The bigger opportunity is that Robinhood may no longer need to simply route transactions through financial infrastructure owned by other companies. It could increasingly own the infrastructure itself...which has always been the bull case for them in crypto. It's not just about making fees off people trading coins, but owning the entire stack when it comes to the broader crypto ecosystem. That gives Robinhood more control over the customer experience, potentially stronger margins and several new recurring revenue streams. It is still early, and some of the initial volume may be driven by launch incentives, but Robinhood Chain is already showing that the company could become far more than a retail brokerage. The main assets being traded on it right now are meme coins, which some people may think are a joke, but to me this is showing the willingness of so many native crypto investors to accept Robinhood Chain as a legitimate platform to be able to trade on and eventually, millions of other assets with real world utility will come on chain. $HOOD is building toward becoming a global, crypto-native financial platform and that level of innovation and speed is what has helped the stock recover this year but is also getting the street excited for the future, diversified streams of revenue which will continue to compound earnings over the coming years. LFG.

$HOOD ROBINHOOD WORLD IS FLAT EVENT ANNOUNCEMENTS: - 1M+ funded customers outside the US - Launching Robinhood Crypto in the UK - Maker orders for Crypto launching for US customers - Robinhood Crypto officially launching in Canada with 0% trading fees for 90 days - Granted license to expand brokerage services in Singapore - Launching Agentic Trading for Crypto - Robinhood Chain officially launches with AI native features to swap tokens, find liquidity pools, and adapt to tokenized real world assets - New perpetual futures for commodities, ETFs, and FX with up to 10x leverage rolling out in the EU - Robinhood Cortex with advanced reasoning launching to Gold Subscribers - Robinhood Earn is rolling out to eligible US customers which allows users to lend USDG onchain through a self-custody wallet and earn an estimated 7% APY Multiple events per year with multiple products/launches per event. Robinhood. Does. Not. Stop.

I bought $NBIS at $232.49. I *think* the market is wrong for selling the neo-clouds here and it feels like an overreaction to the META news. AWS just raised GPU rental prices by 20%. META is using their compute to monetize in a way that makes their overall business more diverse in terms of AI revenue streams. Given the backlog and senior management claiming that 4 customers are fighting for one GPU, it feels like a knee-jerk reaction to the META headline. Will buy more in low $200s if we see it, last time we got that price on $NBIS was 3 weeks ago on a market-wide drawdown so it feels like this might be an opportunity.

$PLTR Alex Karp is one of the only people saying the honest truth about AI within this technology revolution: the monetization of tokens is not in the interest of actually creating value for enterprises. Palantir is in the business of value creation, not selling tokens.

$META Two more perspectives here as we digest this news, one bearish and one bullish. Bearish: If META has excess compute that they are willing to sell via a new cloud business…doesn’t that mean we aren’t compute constrained? Isn’t this really bad for neoclouds? Why would META give a deal to a CRWV or IREN if they just sell the compute themselves? Further more, wouldn’t they cut capex because idle compute as the basis for a new business means they DONT need as much compute as they bought which means capex…should come down? That would be bearish for all semis. Bullish: If META is building a cloud business, even if they are using idle compute (which means they aren’t compute constrained) they might end up spending MORE on capex to…compete with GCP AWS and Azure? Like if they realize that selling compute and services on top of a “Meta Cloud” is better than just ads, then wouldn’t they end up having to spend in the same way that GOOGL MSFT AMZN do in order to build out a full cloud business? More capex which would be good for semis? What do people think?

$META BREAKING: Meta is now building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute, as per Bloomberg. If this is true…then it is exactly what the market has been waiting for. - Justifies the heavy capex spend - Diversifies a line of business outside of advertising - If META can sell compute…they can probably begin selling more B2B agentic services to those same clients using their compute - Compute constraint narrative-driven stocks have RALLIED all year…adding that narrative to $META could be a potential game changer to sentiment around the stock. This is personally a pivot I have been waiting for all year as a shareholder and as annoying as it has been to buy this name (this rip might end up being sold off) this was one of the CORE reasons to continue DCA-ing. Hoping this is true but if Zucks gets into the neocloud game…it could be very exciting. LFG.