BITCOIN FACES SELLING PRESSURE AS LONG-TERM HOLDERS SIT ON LOSSES Long-term Bitcoin holders own approximately 4 million BTC purchased between $85,000 and $118,000, according to Glassnode analysts. With Bitcoin trading near $80,000, more than half of long-term holders' coins were reportedly acquired above current prices. Glassnode warns that a recovery toward $85,000 could trigger selling from investors seeking to break even. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF demand has weakened, although losses realized during successive price declines have become smaller.

How is Bitcoin trading right now? Over the last decade we have seen six different regimes. 2017-2019: Bitcoin was uncorrelated with everything 2020: COVID liquidity shock, everything moved together 2022: BTC traded as a tech stock 2023: decoupled, uncorrelated again August 2024 - June 2026: tech stock again July 2026 to now: correlation with gold and silver We are currently in the rarest regime in Bitcoin's history. The only comparable stretch was in mid-2019 when BTC leaned toward gold and its correlation with stocks went negative. And interestingly enough, the last 30 days show equity correlation tightening again. If that holds, the lines cross back within weeks. That is the line to watch. It'll be very interesting to see if the monetary-asset thesis continues to show up in the tape instead of just being one of our favorite narratives as Bitcoiners.

Michael Saylor on trading Bitcoin: “Trading Bitcoin is, in my opinion, a sign of lesser intellect.” “It’s like picking up pennies on a railroad track. You might get a few quarters… then get hit by a train.”

Strategy books an $8.3B Bitcoin markdown in its first post-never-sell quarter @Strategy reported a Q2 loss on digital assets of $8.32B, nearly all unrealized fair-value marks, with its 843,775 $BTC carried at $49.67B, well below a ~$75.5K average cost basis with Bitcoin trading near $64K. The quarter marks the formal end of the never-sell era: the firm sold 3,588 BTC as part of its new capital management framework and built a $3.75B dollar reserve covering roughly two years of preferred dividends, betting it can defend the balance sheet without breaking the treasury thesis.