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fejau
@fejau_inc
Head of content @blockworks | Podcast @forwardguidance
1.2K Following    82.9K Followers
Yeah you might be liquidated on memory stocks but think about all the great memories you made with friends
It is time for optimism and for phoenixes to emerge from ashes
We now have the foundation pretty set for a new cycle. Hyperliquid for perps, Solana for spot experimentation, fomo to onboard retail, corpo chains and services incoming to onboard institutions and more resilient DeFi ecosystems around the board. Stablecoin issuers will be fighting for distribution and we’ll likely get some great neobank products that offer decent yield as a result. Lenders like Morpho also have real BD pitches now with case studies like Robinhood and Coinbase. We’ve abstracted away a lot of the friction and UX fragmentation for all types of participants. Crypto related verticals are now constantly being shilled and discussed during presentations from SP500 companies. Friendliest regulatory regime we’ve ever seen, and new leadership at places like the SEC and CFTC have needed some time to familiarize themselves with the talking points. Really think a lot of stuff has been bubbling and all we’re missing is the vibes.
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It's always important to know whether you're an investor or a trader during these moments so that when these washouts happen you aren't reacting from a position of weakness.
When positioning is this extended, you don't need much for an unwind. @fejau_inc points to $META's possible compute sales and memory-efficiency rumors as the perfect storm when everyone is crowded into the same theme. "Suddenly you just have this momentum factor implosion that we're seeing."
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We are now in a position where a tiny proportion of the population uses Fable or soon GPT-5.6, while everyone else's experience of AI is 8-30b-model level - Google's AI Overviews, Meta AI, ChatGPT free tier, maybe MS Copilot at best. People outside of tech must be completely baffled how this is supposed to take their job, and annoyed that hundreds of billions are being poured into it.
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Forward to community
"Pokemon" is short for "pocket monsters". "Digimon" is short for "digital monsters". Therefore, "salmon" is short for "saltwater monsters". (You might object: salmon spend a big part of their life in freshwater. But pokemon spend a big part of their life outside pockets too!)
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NEW POD: The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking We Cover: 🔸 AI momentum unwind 🔸 NFP & labor market cracks 🔸 How we’re trading the transition 🔸 BTC sentiment reset 🔸 Is gold back & more! @qthomp @fejau_inc Links Below ↓
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VAR and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race
Five days to vibe code like your life depends on it boys lock in
Fable 5 Max is unspeakably cracked If you are not using this for some silly reason, you have 5 more days before the price goes way up This is advice
Had a few questions on where I got this from My friend @AlexCorrino built it! Check it
4sigma move in momentum factor today. Total momo destruction
The crypto industry is reinventing discounted cash flow analysis from first principles
A better framework for evaluating tokens is here. Token Revenue: A token's direct claim on protocol value — distributions, buybacks, and burns. Token Emissions: The costs token holders subsidize — public (incentives, etc) and private (unlocks, etc).
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hell yeah
CANADA TO ACCELERATE NEW LNG PROJECTS WITH A GOAL OF TRIPLING LNG PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT DECADE, PM CARNEY SAYS CANADA WILL MAINTAIN THE FEDERAL NORTH COAST TANKER BAN; B.C. SAYS IT CANNOT CONSTITUTIONALLY VETO AN ALBERTA PIPELINE, THOUGH IT DOES NOT SUPPORT THE PROPOSAL.
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4sigma move in momentum factor today. Total momo destruction
"this all underscores the importance of the mosaic approach. individual data points are losing their reliability. inflection points will take quarters to piece together using several indicators, not one or two “preferred” measures. Kangaroo macro is dead." banger
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very odd report across both the establishment and HH survey. e-pop and participation fell sharply, particularly among younger cohorts. other flows suggest a slightly soft but all around okay labor market. leisure payrolls fell when you’d expect a bump, downward revisions didn’t necessarily comport with other decent Q2 labor data. for me wage growth remaining roughly constant supports my view that the labor market hasn’t changed all that much this year. Softish, but not crashing. this all underscores the importance of the mosaic approach. individual data points are losing their reliability. inflection points will take quarters to piece together using several indicators, not one or two “preferred” measures. Kangaroo macro is dead.
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Sooo @ForwardGuidance roundup live anyone??? @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_
Today we're announcing Live Studio, a brand new livestreaming command center on X X is where everything is happening now. So we're launching the best tools for pro streamers to go live, connect with their followers & manage their streams Check it out on 𝕏.com in Creator Studio
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Tokens with equity do not work
Tokens with equity do not work
Max hawkishness innit
SPOT GOLD EXTENDS GAINS AFTER FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH'S COMMENTS, LAST UP NEARLY 2% AT $4,086.09/OZ
Amazing read
The trade after your best trade of the year is often the one that gives it all back. I gathered not many write about what a winning streak does to you. So I wrote a piece on it… (free to read)
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Was this the first downgrade release of a model?
I knew it was going to be an insane nothingburger, because there's currently a soft ban on frontier capabilities but I genuinely don't understand why they didn't call it Sonnet 4.8 or Sonnet 4.9, because this artificially nerfed piece of shit is not worthy of the 5.0 naming
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