yeah so basically trump got cocky after succeeding with venezuela and had a hot hand and decided to double down and strike iran in february thinking they could take over the country in a couple of weeks despite everyone telling him it was a bad idea and would drag on nothing really happened and then Iran learned that they can actually close the strait of hormuz and were unsure if it would even work but now its become obvious they can do it and feel empowered. the iranians have a longer history as a culture and are slow walking trump as much as possible as they know that higher oil prices are going to ruin his odds in the midterms and weaken him not only that but now higher energy prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and bond yields which has made the job of his new fed chair warsh who came in under a premise of potential rate cute but because of the iran war were entering a rate hiking cycle the only person in the room who was trying to juggle all of this was scott bessent but after trying to juggle everything for so long he decided he was going to try and fight the bond vigilantes to lower bond yields and declared himself as the house. but he showed up to the bond fight with hardly any ammunition and now the bond market is calling his bluff and now the bond auctions are going terrible and he looks like a fool now so now bond yields are surging export bans on diesel are being put in place as an act of desparation midterms are a total write off and the trump admin is about to spend the next two years probably fighting impeachment hearings while things continue to detoriorate and the funny thing about all of this is he won the presidency off the idea of no more foreign wars but its his own foreign war with iran that started this whole mess and now the free market is testing them all

Since acquiring Messari in June, we've been heads down grinding. Very excited to begin rolling out everything the team has been working hard on. Agentic detection is seriously good. Next level situation monitoring.

The Fed's inflation forecast barely changed since June for such a large shift in the path of fed funds. Seems biggest driver for the hikes is a much stronger labor market and marginally better growth. Very interesting