Top Overnight News Brent crude dropped below $100 on a Kyodo report that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted a blockade of its ports. Futures whipsawed. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it must negotiate if it’s in the national interest to do so. BBG Several Asian refiners have been told informally by Saudi Aramco they will soon be able to pick up oil from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Loadings from Yanbu have been all-but-halted since the East-West pipeline was closed after being attacked by drones launched from Iraq on Sept. 10. BBG Saudi Arabia spent months rerouting oil across the desert to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. Now, with its Red Sea bypass route disrupted by attacks, the world’s oil kingpin is having to return to the waterway it was trying to avoid in the first place. Saudi Aramco, the country’s state-controlled oil giant, is loading more oil onto tankers in the Persian Gulf and then taking its chances sending them through the Strait of Hormuz. WSJ China's Xi Jinping is expected to press US President Donald Trump to halt Taiwan arms sales under a 1982 joint statement during a visit to Washington this week, which he could do at the US National Archives, sources briefed on the matter said. BBG Alibaba unveiled what it called China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to rival Nvidia and underpin a massive expansion of data center capacity. BBG Republican lawmakers are ratcheting up pressure on Donald Trump to ban diesel exports as surging prices squeeze American farmers and truckers just weeks ahead of pivotal midterm elections. FT SoftBank drew more than $20 billion of preliminary demand for what’s shaping up to be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever. BBG Trump's approval rating fell to 32% - the lowest of his political career - as his fellow Republicans soured on his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran ‌war. RTRS US office real estate is entering a new phase as billions in maturing debt force owners and investors to confront losses. Office CMBS delinquencies are near a record 12%, with almost $40 billion of debt maturing this year and next already troubled. BBG

Top Overnight News Donald Trump played down the idea of further guardrails in most advanced AI models, saying the US needs to keep its lead over China. BBG China’s spy agency has warned that AI could pose a risk to the country’s political and social security, signaling growing concern in Beijing that rapid advances in the technology could be exploited against the country. FT Oil rose as a meeting between Iran and several Gulf nations on a temporary shipping lane was postponed, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remained closed, following last week’s attacks by Iraqi militants. BBG U.S. President Donald ‌Trump on Sunday called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a shortage of the fuel that is "hurting the world". RTRS A wave of long-distance Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries in recent months ⁠has reduced that country's fuel production, triggering gasoline shortages across the country. RTRS Just as Ukraine was learning how to parry Russia’s drone attacks, Moscow has moved the goal posts with a new generation of innovative jet-powered weapons. WSJ The CMBS market is being reshaped by a surge in data-center deals, forcing investors to grapple with an entirely new set of risks. BBG A year after shifting production and sourcing out of China to avoid higher U.S. tariffs, some companies are learning that replicating the country's factory ecosystem is not so easy and are bringing manufacturing back. RTRS Eurozone governments are gearing up for one of the biggest leadership reshuffles in the European Central Bank’s 28-year history, with a “grand package” over its three top roles expected to be agreed by the end of December, according to people familiar with the matter. FT The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to nearly 5% this week, reaching its highest level since October 2023. Following an above-consensus CPI print, Goldman economists expect a 25 bp hike at the FOMC meeting next week. Their rates strategists believe that the combination of rising oil prices, a repricing of the Fed path, strong economic growth, and AI investment have lifted long-term interest rates