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AskLivermore
@asklivermore
Singapore's #1# trader now on X. Timing cycles and stock rotation theory. Subscribe to my trades:
195 Following    148.6K Followers
My top 10 mistakes in my trading career. What to avoid to make sure you don’t make the same mistakes as I did: 1. Inverse/leveraged ETF’s have DECAY. The longer you hold, the longer you get punished. 2. Do not MARKET buy low volume stocks. Only limit orders. The spread will make you lose -3% right from the start if you market buy. 3. Investing in semi’s, electrical equipment, hardware, memory, is NOT diversified. It’s one single leveraged bet on one theme. Don’t fool yourself. They will all move the same. 4. If you have FOMO, do NOT go all-in. Start small. 1/5 position size. Then add more once you realize you were acting like an idiot. 5. BUY when others get stopped-out. Look at obvious stop-loss areas. Buy there instead. 6. Don’t do anything drastic or crazy. Always do it small first. Markets are topping? Don’t sell, just trim. Markets bottoming? Don’t go all-in, build slowly. Markets can keep going up or down for a VERY long time. 7. Stocks grind up slowly. Stocks fall fast. Don’t let your emotions make you stupid. 8. TRIM when everyone is happy. And buy more defensive stocks. 9. BUY when everyone is sad. And buy more high growth tech stocks. 10. Individual stocks do NOT matter. It’s the entire portfolio working as a system that matters. Which ones are the superstars? Which ones are the role players? Which one is the rookie? Build your system and team around your strengths.
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As our portfolio reaches all-time highs, we need to be careful here. A lot of screenshots of people making gains, a lot of happiness. This is when I start tilting my portfolio slowly towards the other direction. 1. When people are happy, add to your defensive stocks. 2. When people are sad, add to your high growth AI stocks. I’m still cautious bull forever.
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Space stocks are now at fairly-priced areas. Not too expensive, not too cheap. Can start building positions slowly for the future if you like this sector. I do have $SPCX in our portfolio right now, still holding since last month and plan to keep for a long-time. $RKLB, $PL, $LUNR, $ASTS
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If you have a Taiwanese CEO, you're going to be a millionaire. 1. $NVDA (NVIDIA) - led by co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang (born in Taipei). 2. $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) - led by CEO and Chair Dr. Lisa Su (born in Tainan). 3. $SMCI (SuperMicro Computer) - led by co-founder, CEO, and Chair Charles Liang (born in Chiayi). 4. $GRMN (Garmin) - co-founded by Executive Chairman Dr. Min Kao (born in Jhushan). 5. $DIOD (Diodes) - long led by Dr. Keh-Shew Lu, with current CEO Gary Yu continuing its Taiwanese leadership heritage. 6. $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) - led by founder and CEO Dr. Chih-Hsiang (Thompson) Lin. 7. $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - founded by Morris Chang and currently led by CEO Dr. C.C. Wei. 8. $ASX (ASE Technology) - world's largest chip packaging firm, founded by brothers Jason and Richard Chang. I hope they make a Taiwanese CEO ETF one day.
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HVAC, electrical, plumbing, and the blue collar industry is now at better levels and starting to set up. $CAT, $BW, and other names.
My dear followers. Tomorrow is the time for my quarterly rebalance for my portfolio. I will be adding two NEW names in the Core portfolio - one healthcare, and one industrials. For the 10X portfolio, I will full exit $PANW tomorrow and replace it with a hardware name that got big enough to earn its slot on my books. Also micro-adjusting some weight adjustments on my holdings to make sure it's aligned perfectly. The tech side outran the defensive side last quarter so I'm bringing the two halves back into line, trimming what ran and adding to what lagged. It's time to have a great end-of-year.
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$MU and a lot of AI names are breakout candidates for the future. Trying to hold its support (blue area). Let's see if we can get an end-of-year rally.
$AAPL is the best company in the world. They let others fight to see what actually works. Then they copy it and make it better. They are NEVER first. This is how they always win. - Personal computers (1977) - IBM to Apple II - Graphical computers (1984) - Xerox to Macintosh - MP3 players (2001) - Diamond Rio to iPod - Digital music stores (2003) - Napster to iTunes - Smartphones (2007) - Blackberry, Nokia to iPhone - App marketplaces (2008) - various mobile stores to App Store - Tablets (2010) - Microsoft Tablet to iPad - Video calling (2010) - Skype to FaceTime - Voice (2011) - GPS to Siri - Cloud storage (2011) - Dropbox to iCloud - Fingerprint (2013) - Motorola Atrix to TouchID - Smartwatches (2015) - Samsung Galaxy Gear to Apple Watch - Mobile payments (2014) - PayPal to Apple Pay - Wireless earbuds (2016) - bluetooth earbuds existed for years to AirPods - Smart speakers (2018) - Amazon Alexa to HomePod - Item trackers (2021) - Tile to AirTags - High-end ARM computers (2020) - ARM chips to Apple Silicon Macs - Buy-now-pay-later (2023) - Affirm to Apple Pay Later - Mixed reality VR (2024) - Oculus Meta to Apple Vision Pro - Generative Intelligence (2024) - OpenAI to Apple Intelligence
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$MU There's a chance for AI. Trying to coil and a breakout candidate for the future if it can hold the lows (blue area).
This market is pretty awful right now. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow has gone nowhere in the past 4 months. If you can stay patient and survive this, you can survive anything.
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$CRDO (Credo) and a lot of other AI names have fallen massively. However, they are coming down to better fair-value levels soon. Still too early to call a low for AI since SMH ETF is still struggling. But, it is SLOWLY time to start getting interested again in high momentum names. Take your time. Build slowly. Get ready for a bounce once markets have better clarity.
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$AVGO (Broadcom) is one of the best companies in the world. Now coming down to better fair-value levels. Still weak short-term, but these are price levels where you'd be okay with adding to a long-term portfolio. Not too expensive, not too cheap. Just right for building an initial if you wanted a strong historical compounder.
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$GOOGL is a buy for the long-term on my end. All dips will be an opportunity to make Google a strong position in your portfolio moving forward. YouTube, Google Maps, Gmail, Google Workspace, Search (w/ Gemini now), Android, etc.
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My dear followers, I am proud to be an OFFICIAL owner of a Tesla Model Y (I am also a Tesla shareholder). As many of you know, I will be moving to the U.S. late October from Singapore. Excited to live and experience one of the most beautiful countries in the world!!!
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We've seen so much red, that we now have developed post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) when we see green for the first time.
The only thing that matters for tech stocks right now is $SMH, the semiconductor ETF. Once SMH can find a pivot low, this is when the 300%+ cycles for AI will come again. The current area is "okay" - not the best, not the worst chance. The best area is where I expect bulls to take over. Until then, we have to stay patient for SMH to decide what it wants to do. It's been a very frustrating, and "slow grind." If you can survive this back and forth daily, you can survive anything... let's go!!!
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Tuesday, November 3, 2026 is mid-term elections. We are two months away. Until then, stay patient and survive: 1. Balance portfolio, both high growth and defensives 2. If you're all into high-growth, make sure it's quality names you don't mind holding through uncertainty Don't worry about short-term red, the markets will reward you long-term.
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S&P 500 down Nasdaq down DOW down Russell 2000 down Markets have been choppy, flat, and slow. Stay patient, once mid-term elections finish and markets price in potential Fed rate hikes, the bull-run starts. Until then, it's going to be frustrating. Slow daily grinds and fake outs both sides.
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$AMZN coming back down to better fair value levels. One of my favorite companies in the world. I believe Amazon can compound 20%+ every year for decades to come.
Nuclear is showing signs of a potential low in the near-future. In order for AI to reach super intelligence within the next 10 years, it needs power. $OKLO $NNE $BWXT $CCJ