Health Care has a 100% win rate in the back half of midterm election years.
Not 80%. Not 90%. ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.
I looked at every midterm year since 2006.
Here's how each sector performed from July to December:
1. Health Care $XLV: +8.46% avg, 100% win rate
2. Industrials $XLI: +7.18%, 80%
3. Materials $XLB: +6.71%, 60%
4. Financials $XLF: +6.68%, 80%
5. Cons. Discretionary $XLY: +6.35%, 60%
6. Cons. Staples $XLP: +6.29%, 80%
7. Utilities $XLU: +6.18%, 80%
8. Technology $XLK: +6.08%, 60%
9. Energy $XLE: +3.26%, 60%
10. Real Estate $XLRE: -7.94%, 0%
The S&P 500 $SPY averaged: +5.95%.
Three things nobody is talking about:
1. Health Care outperforms EVERY sector in midterm H2. Not tech. Not discretionary. Health Care. Five for five.
2. Tech drops to #
8#. The darling of every other year becomes middle of the pack when midterm volatility kicks in (60% win rate).
3. Real Estate has NEVER been positive Jul-Dec in a midterm year. 0 for 2. Negative every single time.
2026 is a midterm year.
The rotation is underway. It always does.