Craziest IPO ever: Anthropic has filed for an IPO that could value the company at more than $2 trillion, but warns in the same prospect for "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." Reuters reviewed the prospectus. Key 2025 figures: - Revenue: ~$4.6B, up roughly 12x - Operating loss: $8.06B - Net loss: ~$42B, including a ~$34B non-cash accounting charge - Compute and infrastructure spending: $7.33B - Cash, equivalents and short-term investments: $20.28B at year-end The newer 2026 numbers show how quickly the business has grown: - Q2 revenue: ~$11.5B, up roughly 14x YoY - ARR: reportedly $65B+ by late July - Positive adjusted operating income in Q2, with another profitable quarter expected in Q3, according to the FT. This measure excludes costs including stock-based compensation. The prospectus also outlines $518B in future cloud, compute and infrastructure obligations. And in the same prospectus, Anthropic warns that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." It says models could resist shutdown, hide or manipulate information, and exhibit behavior resembling blackmail. Risk factors occupy roughly 80 pages of the prospectus, compared with 48 describing the business. There is something absurd about pitching a potential $2T valuation while listing existential risks to humanity in the investment paperwork.

Craziest chart in Bitcoin: look at the aggressiveness of the time to long term holder supply being in loss in 2026 versus other bear markets. 7.5 million Bitcoin are underwater right now. Long-term holders, sitting in the red on a record number of coins. Here's the part your financial advisor won't mention... this is what the bottom looks like. Every time. 2015, 2018, 2022 - each cycle low was carved at the exact moment a third of the entire supply went into loss and the people who bought the top finally gave up believing. The metric spikes because the marginal seller is running out of coins to sell. It's the sound of weak hands quietly transferring their Bitcoin to patient ones, right on schedule, for the fourth time. We're sitting at 37% of supply in loss - the same neighborhood that ended every prior bear market.

Craziest part is we all knew each other already in high school! Along with @randomjohnnyh (Perplexity cofounder), @demi_guo_ (Pika CEO), @stevenkplus1 and Andrew (Cognition), and many others. We all grew up in different states but met thru the olympiad scene. Vividly remember this line from @alexandr_wang when we were around 19: "I hear people saying they want to find the next Paypal mafia. Why shouldn't it just be us?" Glad to see @chameleon_jeff get the recognition he deserves :)