nairolf
@0xNairolf
complex concepts in easy words | threads in highlights | ily 🫶
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hyperliquid priority fees are up and to the right
new weekly ath at $1.75m, paid in hype and burned
hip4 is (finally) waking up
8x growth in daily volume over the past month
still tiny compared to the potential market but this is exactly the kind of chart you want to see: steady adoption -> acceleration
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prediction markets won again today
(nearly) everything predicted correctly and ahead of traditional media
the number of people using them as actual news sources up
journalists referencing market odds to understand whats happening up
they are the new news
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i dont believe perps will be a winner takes all market
a scenario where different venues find different edges and dominate different verticals is more likely imo and it is perfectly fine
the demand is big enough for multiple $100b+ winners
people underestimate the TAM
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buybacks are simply just a capital allocation decision
even if hyperliquid allocates 99% of its revenue to buybacks, you shouldnt expect projects to blindly copy that
every dollar of revenue has two obvious destinations: return it to holders or reinvest it into making the business more valuable
imo the right split should constantly change depending on valuation + available reinvestment opportunities
if your token trades at 10x earnings but you can consistently reinvest capital into the product at 30%+ returns, spending everything on buybacks destroys long term value
on the other hand, if the business is already generating huge amounts of cash, the token is cheap and there arent many high return investments left internally, then buying it back aggressively makes perfect sense
"highest buyback percentage wins" is pretty dumb thinking and endgoal should be allocating every dollar wherever it compounds holder value the most
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hyperliquid is killing the idea of a "crypto trader" imo
if i can trade btc, hype, nvidia, gold and whatever comes next from the same venue, im not really just trading crypto anymore
im trading markets and i think thats increasingly how people will behave
follow the hot ball of money, the destination stays the same
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some points addressed by vlad just now:
(i) tokenized rwas are the main bet / identity for robinhood chain (bullish)
(ii) they are building ecosystem support, which is good, but please dont turn this into another giant grants program. rh unfair advantage is distribution, not capital
the real KPI is "how many breakout apps did we kingmake?"
the ecosystem flywheel is: surface them inside robinhood -> send users to them -> integrate them deeper -> promote them harder -> make them killer apps
thats what you wanna see
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time to save the robinhood chain ecosystem
robinhood is at a pretty interesting point rn: 100 days live, got the massive attention spike and now back near the lowest levels of revenue generated by its apps
is it completely over? no
have other chains experienced that? hell yea
how to run it back turbo? hard
but
(i) the fundamental value prop hasnt changed. robinhood has massive distribution and the ability to kingmake apps. time to actually use it
(ii) the ecosystem is surprisingly diversified. look at the better pons coins and many of them have nothing to do with memes. imo thats bullish because it means builders arent just coming for one temporary meta
(iii) there is still no clear identity for robinhood chain. that sounds bearish but imo it is also the opportunity. the winning vertical is still up for grabs. tokenized stocks? ai stuff? still open
tldr: the fundamentals are still there. it all comes down to apps + kingmaking your ecosystem
robinhood or not, every chain eventually ends up with the same problem
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time to save the robinhood chain ecosystem
robinhood is at a pretty interesting point rn: 100 days live, got the massive attention spike and now back near the lowest levels of revenue generated by its apps
is it completely over? no
have other chains experienced that? hell yea
how to run it back turbo? hard
but
(i) the fundamental value prop hasnt changed. robinhood has massive distribution and the ability to kingmake apps. time to actually use it
(ii) the ecosystem is surprisingly diversified. look at the better pons coins and many of them have nothing to do with memes. imo thats bullish because it means builders arent just coming for one temporary meta
(iii) there is still no clear identity for robinhood chain. that sounds bearish but imo it is also the opportunity. the winning vertical is still up for grabs. tokenized stocks? ai stuff? still open
tldr: the fundamentals are still there. it all comes down to apps + kingmaking your ecosystem
robinhood or not, every chain eventually ends up with the same problem
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crypto needs more beginner content that isnt just “how to buy a memecoin”
like look:
- 425 tokens listed on hl spot
- only 5 doing >$5m/day in volume
- average daily volume per pair still <$500k
this can get so much bigger
we need more tokens on hyperliquid spot
imo this is one of the last missing pieces, you can already switch from stocks perps to crypto perps without ever leaving hyperliquid
but now imo you need a deep enough spot offering that you dont have to leave when you actually want to own the asset
(btw tickers only cost 500 hype rn cheappppp)
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we need more tokens on hyperliquid spot
imo this is one of the last missing pieces, you can already switch from stocks perps to crypto perps without ever leaving hyperliquid
but now imo you need a deep enough spot offering that you dont have to leave when you actually want to own the asset
(btw tickers only cost 500 hype rn cheappppp)
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100% allocated and somehow still feel underexposed lol
every day there is a new coin pumping with a thesis that sounds reasonable enough to make me question my entire portfolio
very hard environment not to overtrade ngl but the wisest thing to do is just trusting your bags
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pumpfun is back to controlling 90%+ of launchpad revenue
good reminder that temporary fragmentation and actually breaking a network effect are two very different things
insane level of resilience
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how can fomo become less dependent on cycles?
adoption itself is clearly not the problem anymore. compare the Q1 2026 peak with september and the difference in scale is massive
the more interesting questions are:
(i) can fomo become independent from any single vertical, especially memecoins
(ii) can users keep trading even when there is no obvious speculative mania anywhere
the endgame for (i) is pretty clear: fomo needs to integrates everything from memes, majors, stocks, whatever comes next after that. the hot asset can constantly change as long as fomo stays the destination where people trade
(ii) is probably the much harder and more interesting problem to solve
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on prl endgame
i keep thinking about that small hidden section in pearl's paper
i think currently for most people, pearl = mine a coin while doing AI, which is true but far from being the whole picture
the real endgame is imo much bigger:
(1) mining bootstraps a massive supply of compute
(2) that compute gets matched with people actually needing it
(3) pearl becomes a compute marketplace
and if that happens, prl can become the money used to trade compute inside that marketplace
that means you have something that is both a store of value and the native currency of the compute economy
could be massive
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"bro wat is pearl?"
An explanation of @prlnet, in (very) simple terms. 🧵
+1
f1 is boring irl, hella performative and way too overpriced
one of those few sports where tv > onsite
F1 might be the greatest scam of the decade
Totally unwatchable IRL, 50x oversupplied for paddock tickets who are just random IBM and Oracle employees, and full of new environment propaganda
Zero
good coins being rewarded by the market has a much bigger implication than just good coins going up
it changes the incentive structure for every token that comes next
if revenue, buybacks, good equity token distributions and actual usage are what get rewarded, then teams have to optimize for those things
you can still launch another low float high fdv token with zero revenue, but glhf the difference is that now the market will simply send it to zero
sounds obvious but this is a very different incentive structure from a few years ago
bullish
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there has never been a better time to build your lore
i expect personal reputation and trust to become some of the most valuable assets in the AI era
as AI-generated content becomes everywhere, people will place a higher premium on individuals they've followed and trusted for years
social capital is only going to become more valuable
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craziest day in a while
gn gpaper
