Thanks to Jamaica DPM Horace Chang (@mnsgovjm) for reiterating Jamaica’s continued support for U.S. military operations and for doing more to counter drug trafficking. Jamaica is an important A3C partner and leading security in the Caribbean.

How to get permanently blocked. If you think someone is missing a counterargument to their point, you can say that, and then maybe the person will respond. What you can’t do is respond “you KNOW X, why are you intentionally ignoring this.” Sometimes, what’s an obvious point to you isn’t an obvious point to someone else. Sometimes, I might think that the thing you think is relevant is not relevant, and might have reasons why. Maybe I’ll reconsider after hearing your reasons! But frame it in conspiratorial terms, and I will simply conclude you’re not worth talking to and block you. This I’ve noticed is something right-wingers do very commonly, although this guy claims not to be a right-winger. Maybe he’s some kind of socialist? I’ve noticed that there’s a horseshoe thing with these traits, mentally unwell people with poor theory of mind on the right and left. I’m not going to look at his old posts to see his political deal because, again, I’ve blocked him. But if you want people to talk to you and learn things, don’t do this!

Hundreds of people attended a pro-AI party in DC on September 26, in what the organizers called a counterprogram to the "bipartisan psychosis" over data centers (The Washington Sun) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)

EOS was already 34% of my portfolio before this news. my biggest position. The whole defense sector has been down, but EOS has held up because management keeps executing. And investors focus on the wrong tailwind. I believe this company is going to re-rate hard as it goes from a weapons supplier into a provider of complete turnkey defense solutions for NATIONS. My first entry was at A$2.80. I presented it to our members in July 2025 at around A$4. My confidence in this company is sky-high. Europe’s push toward non-ITAR solutions and plans to spend €800 billion to €1 trillion on defense and specifically counter-drone. And this creates massive tailwinds for EOS. This latest contract, while still subject to conditions, reinforces exactly why I have such strong conviction. Counterdrone is THE defense trade $EOS.AX

Token usage just went vertical, and the power grid is not ready for it (Save this). This chart shows that agentic token usage on OpenRouter rose from roughly 0.51 trillion tokens on February to about 7.3 trillion by Augustwhich is a fourteenfold increase in six months. Human usage grew only about 2.8 times during that period, reaching approximately 1.4 trillion tokens and agents now consume roughly five times more than humans. This matters because agents use roughly fifteen times more tokens per request, since a single employee action can trigger dozens of model calls, tool invocations, and retries before a person sees the result. This is Jevons paradox in practice because every improvement in inference efficiency lowers the cost per token and unlocks new behaviors rather than reducing total spending. The scale is already substantial, as OpenRouter's weekly token consumption grew roughly nine thousand times since early 2024 to more than 90 trillion, with agents accounting for approximately 71% of usage. Goldman Sachs estimates that agentic AI could increase 2030 token consumption by twenty four times. The honest counterargument is that roughly 85% of agentic tokens come from cached prompts billed at lower rates, so revenue is growing more slowly than raw token counts suggest. However, cached tokens still require servers, memory, networking and electricity, which means the physical demand remains real. The infrastructure math is the most important part because US data center power demand climbing from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 gigawatts in 2027. That requires capacity additions of 36.3 gigawatts in 2027, compared with actual additions of only 8.5 gigawatts in 2025, which represents more than a fourfold acceleration. The announced pipeline points toward 135 gigawatts, but only about 60% of scheduled capacity is expected to arrive on time. The capital commitments are enormous, since combined spending from Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, and SpaceX is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2027, while total global AI data center investment could reach $7 trillion by 2030. This is why the bottleneck is shifting from chips to electricity, and some estimates project that 40% of AI data centers will face power shortages by 2027. The beneficiaries therefore extend beyond GPUs into memory, networking, power generation, transmission, cooling, and electrical equipment. If you want to see how Milk Road is positioning around this next wave of AI infrastructure spending, from power and cooling to memory and networking, check out the link below. We’re already making trades around the companies we think benefit most as agentic AI pushes demand even higher.

Chris Camillo reveals he spends 50 to 80 hours researching trades before making them. How long do you study before making a trade? “When I develop a high-conviction thesis like I did with $BE, with $HOOD, especially with $AMZN , I'll generally spend anywhere between 50 and 80 hours doing deep-dive due diligence. So, my thesis is baked. I've seen the counterargument, I know what the other side of that argument looks like, and I obviously don't agree with people.”

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

"The commodity markets are not for entertainment." Former CFTC Commissioner and SEC General Counsel Dan Berkovitz joins @RebeccaRettig1 and @renato_mariotti on this week's The Policy Protocol to break down the ‘economic purpose’ test for prediction markets and the CME–CFTC fight over perps. Plus, Jamie McDonald makes person of the week. Timecodes: 00:00 The Role of CFTC 00:25 Welcome to The Policy Protocol 00:44 The Record SpaceX IPO and Retail Demand 01:41 Synthetic SpaceX Perps on Hyperliquid 03:40 Terry Duffy Exits CME and Sues the CFTC 06:07 Dan Berkovitz Joins the Show 06:44 Can the SEC and CFTC Harmonize? 08:29 Are Perpetuals Swaps or Futures? 09:11 Prediction Markets and the 'Economic Purpose' Test 11:07 The ErisX Sports Betting Precedent 13:07 The Hurricane Hedging Counterargument 15:02 Why Crypto Couldn't 'Come In and Register' Before 17:28 Gary Gensler Is Back 20:27 Person of the Week: Jamie McDonald

One lesson I’ve learned in my short life is that you should not blindly reject opinions or research that run counter to your own. Even when someone presents a view that goes against your position, it is incredibly foolish to reflexively deny it or dismiss the person making the argument. Sometimes people ask me, “If you are bullish on X, why do you follow, quote, or pay attention to people who are bearish on X?” But I actually find people who challenge my views on X more interesting — as long as their arguments are reasonable. Because they help me identify and reduce my own biases. By absorbing those counterarguments, I can become more complete in my thinking.