White House AI and crypto czar @DavidSacks warns against regulations he says could slow U.S. artificial intelligence development, while criticizing Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren over their approach to the technology. "They will rocket past us and they will dominate this technology," Sacks said of China. @IngrahamAngle

David Sacks Calls Out Dario’s Contradictions on AI & Data Centers @DavidSacks: “Dario actually made this argument in the context of trying to ban export of chips, and the argument was that we want to have a data center full of geniuses in the US, and that eventually what AI's going to be used for is you're going to be able to create all these agents that are basically Nobel Prize-winning level scientists. And if we have thousands or millions of those, and China has only dozens or 100, whatever, then we're going to win everything. And that was the whole argument. But now we're basically banning the data centers. We're not going to have those data centers full of geniuses, and he's done his best to restrict the sale of chips to our allies as well. So I guess our allies aren't going to have the data centers either. So we are totally shooting ourselves in the foot, and probably it would be a good thing if Dario really does believe in the data centers full of geniuses idea that he was arguing for last year, he should come forward and say, ‘We're making a big mistake by over-regulating data centers, here's how we should do it.’ I haven't heard him step up in that way, and it makes you kind of question, do you only fight for the doomer side of the argument, or are there versions of the positive side that you're willing to fight for politically?”

David Sacks Predicts the Regulatory Capture Playbook to Ban Open Source AI, Step by Step: @DavidSacks: “I got bad news for you, Chamath, an open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that. They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to closed ones. Here's how they do it step by step, let me explain how regulatory capture actually works. So first of all, you have to get this regulatory apparatus. Dario wants an FDA for AI, but he doesn't have enough political support for that, so instead they do this Trojan horse of a FINRA for AI. They call it self-regulating, it's not really, but anyway, that gets them off the ground. Now they've created the standard-setting organization. Now they've got pre-release model testing. Then the pressure grows to codify that in law, so that happens next. And then what they do is they say, ‘Look, all these standards need to apply equally to all models.’ But here's the problem with that. Open models and closed models are technologically different. Once you release an open model into the world, you can't roll it back and you can't monitor exactly how people are using it because they run it on their own hardware. Dario says this is what makes open models dangerous. So what they're going to do is they're going to have the standard-setting body say, ‘Well, we have to set the standards for AI safety.’ By the way, Dario and OpenAI, they're going to fund the whole thing. They're going to contribute all the compute. They're going to be behind it. They're going to be the ones coordinating with the government officials because frankly, people in government have no idea how to monitor and control and set standards for AI safety. Technologically, this is way beyond them. So they're going to go to these companies and say, ‘Tell us how to do it.’ And so what will happen is the standards will get set, and then it'll be a very simple matter of fairness to say that the standards need to apply to open as well as closed models. The open models cannot comply in the same way, and gradually they will be shut out of the market.”

Sacks: If Dario Got His Way on AI Regulation, It Would Destroy Anthropic @DavidSacks: “There's a huge irony in the fact that Dario did not get his way in Washington for the most part. Because I think if he had realized his dream of this highly regulated AI apparatus, I don't think (Anthropic) would be set up for a hugely successful IPO. Why? Because their whole right to charge this massive premium for tokens is because they're six months ahead of those open models, and that six months would be eaten up in the blink of an eye if they were subject to regulatory approval. Dario himself keeps writing these blog posts where he says, ‘We need an FAA for AI.’ You know how long it takes the FAA to certify and approve a new model, in this case for airframes? Minimum of five years! You're going to apply that regulatory framework to AI model releases?” @Jason: “Game over.” Sacks: “Forget about it. Your six months will be gone like that. Your model will be commoditized, the Chinese competitors will catch up, and that's bad for the United States, it's bad for our competitiveness, it's bad for the AI race. But aside from just the geopolitical dimension, it'd be horrible for Anthropic as a company because, again, all their pricing power depends on them remaining in the lead. If they ever slip up and lose that six months, they're toast.” Jason: “What does that do to revenue?” Sacks: “Exactly. A decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence. But Anthropic and OpenAI are on that hamster wheel. They have to stay in the lead in order to justify that premium.”

David Sacks: The Chip Stock Crash is Based on Momentum, NOT Fundamentals @DavidSacks: “That is the key question here, this correction in the markets, is it driven by fundamentals or is it driven by momentum? I think it's driven by momentum. Meaning that over the past year, you've had this roughly 10x run up in memory chip stocks, and you've seen this overall huge rise in any stock that's related to the AI boom. And I think it was inevitable that you'd see a pullback. I think there was something like a 10% pullback in the Nasdaq from the peak. But when you look at this momentum trade, it was down like 30% or 40%. You look at what happened in South Korea, you look at what happened with Leopold's fund, and obviously there was a lot of leverage behind this momentum trade, so when it corrects, it's going to be brutal. But I think that the question again is, does this reveal anything about the fundamentals? Is the CapEx that's being invested in the AI boom eventually going to deliver ROI, or is this some sort of bubble? I think there will be a return on all of this CapEx, and this is temporary market volatility amplified by leverage.”

The @theallinpod crew is 🔴 LIVE at @Dreamforce @Benioff joins @chamath, @jason, @davidsacks, and @friedberg to chat AI, markets, the future of the enterprise, and what’s reshaping business & the economy